TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.76×

SEA @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.35× Wind 7 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+18 ↑

7:10p

+15 ↑

8:10p

+14 ↑

9:10p

+14 ↑

10:10p

+13 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +18

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 32 · vs Sasaki ⟷ Max Muncy conv 39 · vs Woo → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Roki Sasaki RHP · LAD

leak 95

1.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +330 B ●●●●●

2 Cal Raleigh +290 C ●●●○○

3 Randy Arozarena +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 45

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy +255 C+ ●●●●●

2 Dalton Rushing +350 C ●●●○○

3 Kyle Tucker +425 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy vs Woo Edge +255 0.250 · 90.2 · 9.7% 40.0% 37.4% F B O C+ 66

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ COOL vs Sasaki Edge +330 0.267 · 92.2 · 12.5% 18.2% 46.0% F B O B 72

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Woo Edge +350 0.217 · 89.4 · 9.0% 10.0% 32.0% F B O C 55

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Sasaki Edge +290 0.144 · 88.2 · 11.1% 18.2% 22.5% F B O C 58

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Sasaki +425 0.168 · 91.1 · 9.4% 16.7% 23.5% F B O C 58

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Sasaki +390 0.167 · 90.0 · 9.9% 18.2% 21.0% F B O C 59

· SEA Luke Raley vs Sasaki Edge +390 0.216 · 90.8 · 13.2% 0.0% 35.8% F B O C+ 66

· SEA Cole Young vs Sasaki Edge +500 0.144 · 88.5 · 7.6% 16.7% 14.2% F B O C 52

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Woo Edge +198 0.246 · 93.6 · 10.6% 8.3% 21.3% F B O C+ 63

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Woo +475 0.178 · 90.5 · 7.5% 8.3% 19.4% F B O C 50

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Woo +425 0.188 · 89.0 · 7.4% 8.3% 16.0% F B O C 51

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Sasaki Edge +625 0.162 · 86.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 18.1% F B O C 51

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Woo Edge +390 0.188 · 90.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 15.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 4 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Woo Edge +425 0.136 · 88.9 · 6.7% 18.2% 14.8% F B O D 45

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Sasaki Edge +625 0.133 · — · 8.3% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 46

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Sasaki Edge +475 0.096 · 87.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 44

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Woo +500 0.137 · 89.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.8% ← leak OFF 36.1% BRK 21.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Dominic Canzone L Edge

17.1% 8.6% 16.2% 14.6% B 72 +330

Neutral · 6

Luke Raley L Edge

18.8% 10.0% 13.2% 16.0% C+ 66 +390

Julio Rodríguez R

9.4% 8.3% 8.6% 9.0% C 59 +390

Randy Arozarena R

8.8% 6.4% 8.4% 8.3% C 58 +425

Cal Raleigh S Edge

9.6% 12.8% 14.0% 11.4% C 58 +290

Cole Young L Edge

4.5% 2.1% 9.7% 5.3% C 52 +500

Colt Emerson L Edge

5.0% 4.8% 5.6% 5.1% C 51 +625

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.2% 11.5% 7.1% 6.4% D 46 +625

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.2% 1.9% 7.9% 4.7% D 44 +475

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.8% usage) carries Sasaki's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.8% ← leak BRK 27.7% OFF 6.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Max Muncy L Edge

16.9% 15.5% 6.8% 14.0% C+ 66 +255

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.5% 10.5% 14.9% 16.5% C+ 63 +198

Dalton Rushing L Edge

13.4% 17.5% 2.9% 12.1% C 55 +350

Freddie Freeman L Edge

10.1% 9.3% 10.0% 9.9% C 51 +390

Andy Pages R

7.6% 8.8% 9.7% 8.2% C 51 +425

Mookie Betts R

10.3% 3.6% 6.7% 8.3% C 50 +475

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Kyle Tucker L Edge

10.1% 3.4% 1.5% 6.7% D 45 +425

Teoscar Hernandez R

7.8% 13.2% 8.3% 9.0% D 42 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.8% usage) carries Woo's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Raley Rodríguez Arozarena Raleigh Young Muncy Ohtani Rushing Betts Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Sasaki fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Max Muncy +255 · 66

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.35× Wind 7 mph out 82°F open

+18

↑

6 mph · out

82°F

7:10p · peak

+15

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

8:10p

+14

↑

3 mph · out

76°F

9:10p

+14

↑

3 mph · out

74°F

10:10p

+13

↑

2 mph · out

72°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.76× 82°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Roki Sasaki · RHP 1.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 72 B +330 COOL 3 0.267 92.2 12.5% 28.8%vs RHP 403 17.9% 18.2% 46.0% 31

2 Luke Raley 66 C+ +390 WARM 8 0.216 90.8 13.2% 31.9%vs RHP 385 12.7% 0.0% 35.8% 14

3 Julio Rodríguez 59 C +390 · 21 0.167 90.0 9.9% 17.4%vs RHP 409 16.5% 18.2% 21.0% 33

4 Randy Arozarena 58 C +425 · 23 0.168 91.1 9.4% 26.7%vs RHP 394 12.4% 16.7% 23.5% 33

5 Cal Raleigh 58 C +290 · 24 0.144 88.2 11.1% 13.3%vs RHP 393 13.1% 18.2% 22.5% 22

6 Cole Young 52 C +500 WARM 39 0.144 88.5 7.6% 17.2%vs RHP 388 11.5% 16.7% 14.2% 40

7 Colt Emerson 51 C +625 COOL 43 0.162 86.3 7.4% 29.4%vs RHP 369 9.8% 0.0% 18.1% 27

8 J.P. Crawford 46 D +625 COOL 66 0.133 — 8.3% 25.0%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 19

9 Josh Naylor 44 D +475 COOL 76 0.096 87.6 7.1% 12.3%vs RHP 390 6.8% 0.0% 12.0% 37

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy 66 C+ +255 WARM 7 0.250 90.2 9.7% 25.3%vs RHP 411 19.3% 40.0% 37.4% 22

2 Shohei Ohtani 63 C+ +198 · 12 0.246 93.6 10.6% 22.0%vs RHP 406 19.4% 8.3% 21.3% 33

3 Dalton Rushing 55 C +350 COOL 30 0.217 89.4 9.0% 38.5%vs RHP 400 8.0% 10.0% 32.0% 14

4 Freddie Freeman 51 C +390 COOL 44 0.188 90.1 8.2% 16.7%vs RHP 398 12.5% 0.0% 15.3% 31

5 Andy Pages 51 C +425 COOL 46 0.188 89.0 7.4% 20.7%vs RHP 391 14.3% 8.3% 16.0% 28

6 Mookie Betts 50 C +475 · 50 0.178 90.5 7.5% 19.3%vs RHP 389 10.6% 8.3% 19.4% 31

7 Kyle Tucker 45 D +425 WARM 71 0.136 88.9 6.7% 10.9%vs RHP 397 6.9% 18.2% 14.8% 28

8 Teoscar Hernandez 42 D +500 COOL 86 0.137 89.3 7.8% 19.1%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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