TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.85×

BOS @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 11 mph out 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

+17 ↑

6:40p

+16 ↑

7:40p

+15 ↑

8:40p

+13 ↑

9:40p

+12 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +17

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 27 · vs Barnett ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 28 · vs Gray → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Mason Barnett RHP

leak 91

1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.88 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +225 B ●●●●○

2 Ceddanne Rafaela +500 C ●●●●○

3 Wilyer Abreu +265 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 80

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +400 C+ ●●●●○

2 Nick Kurtz — C+ ●●●●○

3 Jacob Wilson +850 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.9% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Gray Edge +400 0.225 · 90.2 · 8.4% 25.0% 30.0% F B O C+ 61

· — Willson Contreras ✶ vs Barnett +225 0.255 · 90.5 · 10.9% 15.4% 39.6% F B O B 70

· — Ceddanne Rafaela vs Barnett +500 0.163 · 86.4 · 6.3% 28.6% 19.3% F B O C 53

· ATH Nick Kurtz COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.230 · 93.4 · 11.5% 20.0% 27.6% F B O C+ 65

· — Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Barnett Edge +265 0.182 · 89.8 · 10.1% 21.4% 23.5% F B O C+ 61

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Barnett +525 0.187 · 88.6 · 8.9% 10.0% 12.1% F B O C 56

· — Jarren Duran COOL vs Barnett Edge +370 0.142 · 89.5 · 9.2% 0.0% 13.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Gray +850 0.126 · 83.8 · 4.3% 25.0% 14.8% F B O D 42

· — Masataka Yoshida vs Barnett Edge +500 0.119 · 88.7 · 4.8% 16.7% 9.5% F B O D 46

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Gray Edge +575 0.156 · 90.0 · 7.3% 11.1% 14.7% F B O D 47

· — Caleb Durbin COOL vs Barnett +575 0.155 · 84.0 · 4.6% 7.1% 13.0% F B O D 46

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Gray Edge +700 0.100 · 89.0 · 6.8% 10.0% 10.1% F B O D 41

· — Carlos Narvaez vs Barnett — 0.092 · 91.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 44

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Gray Edge — 0.086 · 86.2 · 3.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 34

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Gray +750 0.077 · 90.0 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.8% ← leak BRK 35.5% OFF 5.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L Edge

17.0% 21.4% 17.9% 18.4% C+ 65 —

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.2% 16.9% 0.0% 9.7% C+ 61 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.9% 4.5% 8.9% 7.4% D 47 +575

Jacob Wilson R

4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 42 +850

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.9% 8.6% 2.1% 6.0% D 41 +700

Henry Bolte R

6.0% 7.7% 5.6% 6.4% D 40 +750

116

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.8% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 54.6% ← leak FB 42.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Willson Contreras R

15.1% 11.9% 13.9% B 70 +225

Neutral · 4

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.3% 12.5% 12.3% C+ 61 +265

Andruw Monasterio R

10.2% 7.8% 9.4% C 56 +525

Ceddanne Rafaela R

5.6% 3.9% 4.9% C 53 +500

Jarren Duran L Edge

7.2% 12.9% 10.2% C 52 +370

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Caleb Durbin R

1.5% 2.7% 2.5% D 46 +575

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

0.0% 3.4% 2.7% D 46 +500

Carlos Narvaez R

8.8% 7.8% 7.2% D 44 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (54.6% usage) carries Barnett's damage — BRK is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Kurtz Soderstrom Wilson Contreras Abreu Rafaela Yoshida

Legend

attack side — vs Barnett fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Tyler Soderstrom +400 · 61

Ceddanne Rafaela +500 · 53

Nick Kurtz — · 65

Wilyer Abreu +265 · 61

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.16× Wind 11 mph out 89°F open

+17

↑

12 mph · out

90°F

6:40p · peak

+16

↑

11 mph · out

85°F

7:40p

+15

↑

11 mph · out

81°F

8:40p

+13

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

9:40p

+12

↑

10 mph · slight_out

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.85× 89°F, wind 11 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 65 C+ — COOL 9 0.230 93.4 11.5% 41.7%vs RHP 412 20.7% 20.0% 27.6% 5

2 Tyler Soderstrom 61 C+ +400 · 16 0.225 90.2 8.4% 21.1%vs RHP 405 16.1% 25.0% 30.0% 32

3 Carlos Cortes 47 D +575 COOL 59 0.156 90.0 7.3% 16.7%vs RHP 403 5.3% 11.1% 14.7% 16

4 Jacob Wilson 42 D +850 WARM 87 0.126 83.8 4.3% 16.1%vs RHP 386 7.6% 25.0% 14.8% 43

5 Lawrence Butler 41 D +700 WARM 90 0.100 89.0 6.8% 18.8%vs RHP 402 4.5% 10.0% 10.1% 20

6 Henry Bolte 40 D +750 COOL 93 0.077 90.0 6.8% 0.0%vs RHP 422 7.4% 0.0% 7.9% 21

7 Jeff Mcneil 34 D — WARM 116 0.086 86.2 3.0% 9.1%vs RHP 377 3.3% 0.0% 8.8% 24

vs Mason Barnett · RHP 1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.88 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 70 B +225 · 5 0.255 90.5 10.9% 33.3%vs RHP 406 20.2% 15.4% 39.6% 20

2 Wilyer Abreu 61 C+ +265 COOL 17 0.182 89.8 10.1% 12.9%vs RHP 405 13.5% 21.4% 23.5% 34

3 Andruw Monasterio 56 C +525 COOL 29 0.187 88.6 8.9% 3.6%vs RHP 383 18.8% 10.0% 12.1% 19

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 53 C +500 WARM 36 0.163 86.4 6.3% 14.8%vs RHP 374 11.7% 28.6% 19.3% 40

5 Jarren Duran 52 C +370 COOL 40 0.142 89.5 9.2% 27.9%vs RHP 398 12.0% 0.0% 13.0% 34

6 Caleb Durbin 46 D +575 COOL 67 0.155 84.0 4.6% 20.6%vs RHP 373 9.0% 7.1% 13.0% 36

7 Masataka Yoshida 46 D +500 · 68 0.119 88.7 4.8% 9.3%vs RHP 367 10.4% 16.7% 9.5% 30

8 Carlos Narvaez 44 D — WARM 72 0.092 91.4 7.8% 10.7%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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