TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.95×

CWS @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph in 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

+0 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Colson Montgomery conv 25 · vs Williams ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 23 · vs Newcomb → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 84

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colson Montgomery — C ●●●●○

2 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●○

3 Randal Grichuk — C ●●●○○

FADE Sean Newcomb LHP · CWS

leak 6

0.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.91 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●●○

2 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●○○

3 Patrick Bailey — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 32.3% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Williams Edge — 0.219 · 88.7 · 12.0% 23.1% 26.5% F B O C 58

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.262 · 94.0 · 14.6% 16.7% 32.3% F B O C+ 64

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Williams — 0.282 · 91.5 · 11.3% 0.0% 36.4% F B O C 57

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Williams — 0.223 · 90.5 · 12.2% 8.3% 17.4% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Newcomb — 0.146 · 87.8 · 5.2% 36.4% 9.2% F B O D 37

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.127 · 86.9 · 4.2% 25.0% 10.6% F B O D 32

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Williams — 0.131 · 87.3 · 6.8% 7.7% 13.2% F B O D 36

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.121 · 90.4 · 6.2% 12.5% 6.2% F B O D 33

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Williams Edge — 0.130 · 88.7 · 6.9% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 36

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Newcomb Edge — 0.197 · 87.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 37

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Newcomb — 0.068 · 83.6 · 1.7% 7.7% 4.5% F B O D 19

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Williams Edge — 0.183 · 87.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 42

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Williams Edge — 0.175 · 89.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 44

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.124 · 87.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 35

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Newcomb — 0.165 · 91.5 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 35

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.133 · 88.8 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Gavin Williams — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Sean Newcomb — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery Grichuk Bazzana Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Colson Montgomery — · 58

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph in 64°F open

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

64°F

6:40p

-3

↑

4 mph · cross

62°F

7:40p

-2

↑

4 mph · slight_out

60°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

59°F

9:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

59°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 64°F, wind 4 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 64 C+ — COOL 5 0.262 94.0 14.6% 36.2%vs RHP 401 18.3% 16.7% 32.3% 21

2 Colson Montgomery 58 C — WARM 13 0.219 88.7 12.0% 27.3%vs RHP 397 21.6% 23.1% 26.5% 23

3 Randal Grichuk 57 C — WARM 18 0.282 91.5 11.3% 26.7%vs RHP 390 13.5% 0.0% 36.4% 18

4 Miguel Vargas 56 C — COOL 20 0.223 90.5 12.2% 16.4%vs RHP 392 19.2% 8.3% 17.4% 39

5 Andrew Benintendi 44 D — · 59 0.175 89.2 9.9% 15.0%vs RHP 388 11.9% 0.0% 10.9% 25

6 Tristan Peters 42 D — · 72 0.183 87.5 8.1% 13.1%vs RHP 377 10.9% 0.0% 11.1% 33

7 Chase Meidroth 36 D — WARM 98 0.131 87.3 6.8% 13.1%vs RHP 379 7.8% 7.7% 13.2% 30

8 Braden Montgomery 36 D — WARM 100 0.130 88.7 6.9% 17.2%vs RHP 395 6.8% 9.1% 8.4% 31

9 Sam Antonacci 35 D — COOL 106 0.124 87.2 7.5% 10.8%vs RHP 390 7.2% 0.0% 7.7% 38

vs Sean Newcomb · LHP 0.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.91 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 37 D — · 94 0.197 87.4 6.3% 20.0%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 27

2 Travis Bazzana 37 D — WARM 95 0.146 87.8 5.2% 4.2%vs LHP 394 11.9% 36.4% 9.2% 27

3 Chase Delauter 35 D — · 104 0.165 91.5 5.9% 11.8%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 29

4 Patrick Bailey 33 D — COOL 112 0.121 90.4 6.2% 10.0%vs LHP 409 6.9% 12.5% 6.2% 20

5 Brayan Rocchio 32 D — COOL 115 0.127 86.9 4.2% 10.8%vs LHP 384 8.6% 25.0% 10.6% 34

6 Jose Ramirez 28 D — COOL 131 0.133 88.8 4.8% 15.2%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 39

7 Steven Kwan 19 D — COOL 144 0.068 83.6 1.7% 0.0%vs LHP 372 2.2% 7.7% 4.5% 47

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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