TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.97×

DET @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 3 mph cross 66°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-5 ↑

7:07p

-5 ↑

8:07p

-3 ↑

9:07p

+0 ↑

10:07p

+2 ↑

11:07p

conditions build late — the 11:07p window peaks +2

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 28 · vs Soriano ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 31 · vs Melton → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 91

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene — C ●●●●○

3 Dillon Dingler — C ●●○○○

FADE Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 54

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C ●●●●●

2 George Springer — D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 25.7% · 14D pace 36.4% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Melton — 0.228 · 90.5 · 9.4% 36.4% 25.7% F B O C 58

· — Spencer Torkelson vs Soriano — 0.190 · 89.2 · 9.6% 37.5% 19.5% F B O C 52

· — Riley Greene vs Soriano Edge — 0.201 · 90.3 · 10.7% 25.0% 23.1% F B O C 54

· — Dillon Dingler vs Soriano — 0.212 · 88.4 · 8.6% 10.0% 13.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Melton — 0.165 · 88.5 · 6.7% 11.1% 10.1% F B O D 42

· — Colt Keith vs Soriano Edge — 0.145 · 88.8 · 7.6% 10.0% 10.5% F B O D 40

· — Hao-Yu Lee COOL vs Soriano — 0.155 · 89.8 · 8.0% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 42

· — Kevin Mcgonigle vs Soriano Edge — 0.152 · 88.0 · 7.3% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 41

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Melton Edge — 0.116 · 87.0 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 32

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Melton Edge — 0.118 · 85.4 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 30

· — Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.098 · 85.7 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Melton — 0.100 · 90.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 33

· — Gleyber Torres vs Soriano — 0.113 · 86.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 35

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Melton — 0.109 · 84.1 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 29

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Melton — 0.109 · 86.2 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Troy Melton — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for José Soriano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Greene Torkelson

Legend

attack side — vs Soriano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kazuma Okamoto — · 58

Spencer Torkelson — · 52

Riley Greene — · 54

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.97× Wind 3 mph cross 66°F retractable

-5

↑

4 mph · in

65°F

7:07p

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

63°F

8:07p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

62°F

9:07p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

60°F

10:07p

↑

5 mph · out

59°F

11:07p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 66°F, wind 3 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Troy Melton · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 58 C — WARM 15 0.228 90.5 9.4% 27.2%vs RHP 400 19.8% 36.4% 25.7% 28

2 George Springer 42 D — WARM 74 0.165 88.5 6.7% 19.3%vs RHP 395 11.5% 11.1% 10.1% 32

3 Vladimir Guerrero 33 D — WARM 111 0.100 90.6 6.6% 9.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 39

4 Nathan Lukes 32 D — · 116 0.116 87.0 4.0% 15.5%vs RHP 382 7.8% 0.0% 8.2% 38

5 Andres Gimenez 30 D — COOL 124 0.118 85.4 4.7% 9.5%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 34

6 Myles Straw 30 D — COOL 125 0.109 86.2 4.4% 4.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 19

7 Ernie Clement 29 D — COOL 129 0.109 84.1 3.6% 5.6%vs RHP 376 6.6% 0.0% 6.6% 39

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene 54 C — WARM 24 0.201 90.3 10.7% 17.6%vs RHP 401 13.3% 25.0% 23.1% 33

2 Spencer Torkelson 52 C — · 29 0.190 89.2 9.6% 25.6%vs RHP 392 15.2% 37.5% 19.5% 26

3 Dillon Dingler 50 C — · 38 0.212 88.4 8.6% 26.7%vs RHP 398 17.8% 10.0% 13.1% 29

4 Hao-Yu Lee 42 D — COOL 76 0.155 89.8 8.0% 20.7%vs RHP 399 14.3% 9.1% 8.9% 22

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 41 D — · 77 0.152 88.0 7.3% 11.5%vs RHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 14.0% 41

6 Colt Keith 40 D — WARM 83 0.145 88.8 7.6% 13.7%vs RHP 382 6.8% 10.0% 10.5% 18

7 Gleyber Torres 35 D — WARM 107 0.113 86.3 6.9% 14.0%vs RHP 393 8.2% 0.0% 6.9% 23

8 Zach Mckinstry 29 D — COOL 128 0.098 85.7 4.0% 5.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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