TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ CIN

Playable air · 1.06×

LAD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph cross 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:40p

+0 ↑

7:40p

-1 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +0

Best of game Max Muncy conv 30 · vs Lodolo ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 37 · vs Skubal → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 90

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — B ●●●●●

2 Mookie Betts — C ●●●●○

3 Kyle Tucker — C ●●●○○

FADE Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 43

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●●

2 Eugenio Suarez — D ●●○○○

3 Tyler Stephenson — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 30.6% · 14D pace 29.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Elly De La Cruz HOT vs Skubal Edge — 0.226 · 94.5 · 10.5% 41.7% 31.4% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Lodolo — 0.244 · 90.5 · 11.1% 29.4% 30.6% F B O B 70

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Lodolo Edge — 0.185 · 90.1 · 8.5% 33.3% 21.9% F B O C 58

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Lodolo — 0.143 · 88.7 · 7.4% 25.0% 15.6% F B O C 50

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Lodolo — 0.154 · 89.5 · 8.8% 8.3% 11.1% F B O C 51

· — Sal Stewart vs Skubal Edge — 0.207 · 90.2 · 9.5% 0.0% 15.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· — Eugenio Suarez vs Skubal Edge — 0.223 · 88.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 27.6% F B O D 48

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Lodolo Edge — 0.133 · 87.7 · 7.1% 9.1% 11.5% F B O D 46

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Skubal Edge — 0.174 · 91.1 · 9.2% 9.1% 9.9% F B O D 46

· — Matt Mclain COOL vs Skubal Edge — 0.154 · 88.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 18.2% F B O D 43

· — Jj Bleday COOL vs Skubal — 0.202 · 88.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 17.7% F B O D 48

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez HOT vs Lodolo Edge — 0.152 · 90.2 · 10.0% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 48

· — Dane Myers COOL vs Skubal Edge — 0.109 · 89.3 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 34

· LAD Alex Freeland vs Lodolo Edge — 0.076 · 89.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nick Lodolo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tarik Skubal — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Tucker Cruz Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Lodolo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz — · 62

Max Muncy — · 70

Mookie Betts — · 58

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph cross 74°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

72°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · cross

71°F

7:40p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

69°F

8:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

67°F

9:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · in

65°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 74°F, wind 6 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 70 B — · 2 0.244 90.5 11.1% 22.9%vs LHP 410 22.1% 29.4% 30.6% 51

2 Mookie Betts 58 C — WARM 17 0.185 90.1 8.5% 12.2%vs LHP 389 13.2% 33.3% 21.9% 37

3 Freddie Freeman 51 C — COOL 33 0.154 89.5 8.8% 14.7%vs LHP 399 9.7% 8.3% 11.1% 20

4 Kyle Tucker 50 C — WARM 36 0.143 88.7 7.4% 8.1%vs LHP 390 8.6% 25.0% 15.6% 36

5 Teoscar Hernandez 48 D — HOT 41 0.152 90.2 10.0% 20.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 31

6 Tommy Edman 46 D — COOL 50 0.133 87.7 7.1% 30.0%vs LHP 396 8.5% 9.1% 11.5% 35

7 Alex Freeland 41 D — WARM 82 0.076 89.3 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 373 2.6% 0.0% 7.4% 22

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 62 C+ — HOT 7 0.226 94.5 10.5% 41.7%vs LHP 402 17.8% 41.7% 31.4% 30

2 Sal Stewart 51 C — WARM 31 0.207 90.2 9.5% 27.6%vs LHP 397 17.2% 0.0% 15.0% 38

3 Eugenio Suarez 48 D — WARM 40 0.223 88.4 8.9% 28.6%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 27.6% 22

4 Jj Bleday 48 D — COOL 42 0.202 88.3 8.4% 19.2%vs LHP 389 15.4% 0.0% 17.7% 27

5 Tyler Stephenson 46 D — · 51 0.174 91.1 9.2% 8.3%vs LHP 392 10.1% 9.1% 9.9% 23

6 Matt Mclain 43 D — COOL 64 0.154 88.3 8.2% 24.0%vs LHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 18.2% 23

7 Dane Myers 34 D — COOL 109 0.109 89.3 5.5% 14.8%vs LHP 384 6.0% 0.0% 8.2% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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