TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.46×

ATL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 13 mph slight_out 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:40p

+10 ↑

7:40p

+11 ↑

8:40p

+11 ↑

9:40p

+12 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +12

Best of game Matt Olson conv 19 · vs Peterson ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 29 · vs López → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK David Peterson LHP · CHC

leak 95

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●○○

2 Michael Harris — C ●●○○○

3 Austin Riley — C ●●○○○

FADE Reynaldo López RHP · ATL

leak 83

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.28 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●○

2 Alex Bregman — C ●●●●○

3 Michael Busch — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 34.8% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs López Edge — 0.285 · 90.5 · 10.1% 23.1% 34.8% F B O B 72

· CHC Alex Bregman vs López — 0.186 · 88.1 · 6.6% 23.1% 23.2% F B O C 54

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Peterson — 0.258 · 92.7 · 9.6% 15.4% 22.0% F B O C+ 66

· CHC Michael Busch vs López Edge — 0.157 · 88.5 · 8.2% 16.7% 12.8% F B O C 51

· ATL Michael Harris vs Peterson — 0.198 · 90.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 28.1% F B O C 51

· ATL Austin Riley vs Peterson Edge — 0.145 · 91.4 · 8.8% 15.4% 12.0% F B O C 50

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs López — 0.208 · 88.4 · 8.9% 8.3% 15.3% F B O C 57

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Peterson Edge — 0.189 · 90.2 · 8.9% 0.0% 23.4% F B O C 50

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Peterson — 0.173 · 91.6 · 8.9% 7.7% 15.6% F B O C 54

· CHC Ian Happ vs López Edge — 0.190 · 89.3 · 9.3% 0.0% 15.3% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CHC Carson Kelly vs López — 0.127 · 87.3 · 6.6% 11.1% 8.5% F B O D 44

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Peterson Edge — 0.161 · 87.1 · 5.0% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 45

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs López — 0.092 · 85.9 · 3.1% 7.7% 8.1% F B O D 35

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Peterson — 0.121 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 42

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Peterson — 0.143 · 90.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 44

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Peterson Edge — 0.117 · 86.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for David Peterson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Reynaldo López — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Harris Riley Crow-Armstrong Bregman Busch

Legend

attack side — vs Peterson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 72

Alex Bregman — · 54

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 13 mph slight_out 70°F open

↑

14 mph · slight_out

67°F

6:40p

+10

↑

14 mph · slight_out

66°F

7:40p

+11

↑

14 mph · slight_out

64°F

8:40p

+11

↑

14 mph · slight_out

62°F

9:40p

+12

↑

14 mph · slight_out

62°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.46× 70°F, wind 13 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 66 C+ — COOL 4 0.258 92.7 9.6% 23.4%vs LHP 408 23.2% 15.4% 22.0% 39

2 Drake Baldwin 54 C — COOL 25 0.173 91.6 8.9% 26.9%vs LHP 402 15.4% 7.7% 15.6% 40

3 Michael Harris 51 C — · 30 0.198 90.4 8.1% 25.8%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 28.1% 38

4 Ronald Acuna 50 C — · 34 0.189 90.2 8.9% 20.8%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 45

5 Austin Riley 50 C — · 39 0.145 91.4 8.8% 8.3%vs LHP 409 9.5% 15.4% 12.0% 30

6 Ozzie Albies 45 D — WARM 55 0.161 87.1 5.0% 13.3%vs LHP 387 12.8% 8.3% 10.7% 42

7 Mike Yastrzemski 44 D — COOL 62 0.143 90.5 6.6% 0.0%vs LHP 389 7.4% 0.0% 8.6% 20

8 Dominic Smith 42 D — COOL 75 0.121 87.7 5.9% 0.0%vs LHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 9.9% 4

9 Mauricio Dubon 36 D — · 97 0.117 86.4 4.9% 9.1%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 40

vs Reynaldo López · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.28 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 72 B — WARM 1 0.285 90.5 10.1% 27.8%vs RHP 397 22.7% 23.1% 34.8% 36

2 Seiya Suzuki 57 C — WARM 19 0.208 88.4 8.9% 18.2%vs RHP 406 15.9% 8.3% 15.3% 36

3 Ian Happ 56 C — WARM 21 0.190 89.3 9.3% 23.8%vs RHP 402 16.9% 0.0% 15.3% 19

4 Alex Bregman 54 C — WARM 23 0.186 88.1 6.6% 18.6%vs RHP 390 12.9% 23.1% 23.2% 43

5 Michael Busch 51 C — · 32 0.157 88.5 8.2% 12.8%vs RHP 403 13.4% 16.7% 12.8% 35

6 Carson Kelly 44 D — · 63 0.127 87.3 6.6% 9.3%vs RHP 403 8.5% 11.1% 8.5% 29

7 Nico Hoerner 35 D — WARM 105 0.092 85.9 3.1% 6.3%vs RHP 383 5.4% 7.7% 8.1% 47

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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