TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.67×

BAL @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 11 mph in 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-12 ↑

7:10p

-10 ↑

8:10p

-10 ↑

9:10p

-9 ↑

10:10p

-9 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks -9

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 33 · vs Young ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 24 · vs Tong → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 77

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●●●

2 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●●○

3 Brett Baty — D ●●○○○

FADE Jonah Tong RHP · NYM

leak 33

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●○

2 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●○

3 Jackson Holliday — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 27.0% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Young Edge — 0.213 · 91.0 · 7.8% 41.7% 24.0% F B O C 55

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Young Edge — 0.255 · 92.3 · 9.7% 27.3% 27.0% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Tong — 0.229 · 94.2 · 10.0% 23.1% 25.8% F B O C+ 60

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Tong — 0.240 · 91.3 · 9.7% 25.0% 22.6% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Young Edge — 0.137 · 90.3 · 8.3% 14.3% 13.8% F B O D 42

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Young — 0.130 · 89.5 · 6.7% 16.7% 8.0% F B O D 40

· NYM Jared Young vs Young Edge — 0.165 · 89.9 · 6.9% 12.5% 10.4% F B O D 42

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Young — 0.168 · 90.3 · 10.3% 0.0% 20.6% F B O D 45

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Young Edge — 0.140 · 88.6 · 6.8% 8.3% 8.5% F B O D 40

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Tong Edge — 0.113 · 87.1 · 7.0% 9.1% 7.2% F B O D 36

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Tong Edge — 0.184 · 90.2 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 47

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Tong Edge — 0.175 · 89.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 43

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Young Edge — 0.122 · 89.3 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 35

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Tong Edge — 0.150 · 88.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 43

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Young — 0.126 · 86.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 37

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Tong Edge — 0.127 · 88.2 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jonah Tong — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Young — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Soto Lindor Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Young fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Francisco Lindor — · 55

Juan Soto — · 61

Pete Alonso — · 60

Coby Mayo — · 58

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 11 mph in 72°F open

-12

↑

11 mph · in

73°F

7:10p

-10

↑

9 mph · in

72°F

8:10p

-10

↑

9 mph · in

70°F

9:10p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

69°F

10:10p · peak

-9

↑

8 mph · in

67°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.67× 72°F, wind 11 mph NNE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jonah Tong · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 60 C+ — COOL 10 0.229 94.2 10.0% 31.3%vs RHP 402 21.5% 23.1% 25.8% 35

2 Coby Mayo 58 C — COOL 16 0.240 91.3 9.7% 15.2%vs RHP 411 18.3% 25.0% 22.6% 31

3 Samuel Basallo 47 D — · 45 0.184 90.2 9.5% 26.3%vs RHP 399 13.3% 0.0% 11.7% 22

4 Gunnar Henderson 43 D — COOL 66 0.175 89.2 7.0% 16.7%vs RHP 393 13.6% 0.0% 10.0% 32

5 Colton Cowser 43 D — COOL 67 0.150 88.0 8.6% 20.7%vs RHP 412 14.6% 0.0% 9.0% 12

6 Jackson Holliday 36 D — · 102 0.113 87.1 7.0% 14.3%vs RHP 389 4.4% 9.1% 7.2% 35

7 Leody Taveras 34 D — COOL 110 0.127 88.2 5.4% 12.1%vs RHP 403 4.7% 0.0% 7.0% 14

vs Brandon Young · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 61 C+ — · 8 0.255 92.3 9.7% 31.2%vs RHP 401 21.0% 27.3% 27.0% 40

2 Francisco Lindor 55 C — · 22 0.213 91.0 7.8% 22.7%vs RHP 393 16.8% 41.7% 24.0% 39

3 Francisco Alvarez 45 D — WARM 52 0.168 90.3 10.3% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 17

4 Brett Baty 42 D — HOT 70 0.137 90.3 8.3% 14.1%vs RHP 396 7.1% 14.3% 13.8% 18

5 Jared Young 42 D — · 73 0.165 89.9 6.9% 18.4%vs RHP 400 7.5% 12.5% 10.4% 29

6 Carson Benge 40 D — COOL 89 0.140 88.6 6.8% 15.0%vs RHP 396 10.5% 8.3% 8.5% 31

7 Bo Bichette 40 D — WARM 90 0.130 89.5 6.7% 11.6%vs RHP 388 10.4% 16.7% 8.0% 39

8 Marcus Semien 37 D — COOL 96 0.126 86.6 6.5% 13.4%vs RHP 391 9.8% 0.0% 8.0% 36

9 A.J. Ewing 35 D — · 103 0.122 89.3 6.8% 13.7%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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