TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ COL

Neutral air · 1.01×

SD @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 7 mph in 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

-8 ↑

8:40p

-7 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -3

Best of game Tj Rumfield conv 55 · vs Mize ⟷ Manny Machado conv 25 · vs Sugano → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 87

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tj Rumfield — D ●●●●●

2 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

3 Kyle Karros — D ●●●○○

FADE Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 62

1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado — C+ ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill — C+ ●●●○○

3 Jake Cronenworth — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 27.7% · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado vs Sugano — 0.191 · 90.5 · 10.8% 27.3% 22.8% F B O C+ 60

· — Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Mize — 0.279 · 90.1 · 11.1% 20.0% 27.7% F B O C+ 64

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Sugano Edge — 0.190 · 91.3 · 12.1% 16.7% 21.2% F B O C+ 60

· — Mickey Moniak COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.244 · 89.5 · 8.9% 14.3% 15.0% F B O C 54

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Sugano — 0.170 · 92.9 · 12.1% 0.0% 18.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Tj Rumfield HOT vs Mize Edge — 0.158 · 84.2 · 6.4% 100.0% 10.0% F B O D 41

· — Kyle Karros vs Mize — 0.161 · 89.4 · 8.3% 20.0% 17.7% F B O D 46

· — Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Mize — 0.124 · 87.4 · 7.2% 11.1% 10.4% F B O D 39

· — Cole Carrigg vs Mize Edge — 0.175 · 87.3 · 6.7% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 41

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.078 · 87.0 · 5.9% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· — Jake Mccarthy vs Mize Edge — 0.186 · 85.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 42

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Sugano — 0.114 · 87.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 40

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Sugano — 0.100 · 89.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 41

· — Troy Johnston COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.115 · 89.7 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tomoyuki Sugano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Casey Mize — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado Merrill Goodman Moniak Karros Rumfield

Legend

attack side — vs Mize fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Manny Machado — · 60

Hunter Goodman — · 64

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 7 mph in 83°F open

-3

↑

5 mph · in

84°F

6:40p · peak

-5

↑

7 mph · in

82°F

7:40p

-8

↑

10 mph · in

80°F

8:40p

-7

↑

10 mph · in

77°F

9:40p

-4

↑

8 mph · cross

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 83°F, wind 7 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 60 C+ — WARM 11 0.191 90.5 10.8% 26.5%vs RHP 398 17.6% 27.3% 22.8% 33

2 Jackson Merrill 60 C+ — HOT 12 0.190 91.3 12.1% 20.8%vs RHP 410 16.3% 16.7% 21.2% 41

3 Fernando Tatis 52 C — WARM 28 0.170 92.9 12.1% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 40

4 Xander Bogaerts 41 D — COOL 81 0.100 89.3 8.2% 15.2%vs RHP 400 7.2% 0.0% 8.1% 33

5 Freddy Fermin 40 D — HOT 86 0.114 87.6 6.9% 6.5%vs RHP 382 2.1% 0.0% 8.8% 7

6 Jake Cronenworth 36 D — COOL 99 0.078 87.0 5.9% 9.1%vs RHP 382 3.1% 10.0% 8.4% 30

vs Casey Mize · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 64 C+ — COOL 6 0.279 90.1 11.1% 36.0%vs RHP 410 24.0% 20.0% 27.7% 30

2 Mickey Moniak 54 C — COOL 26 0.244 89.5 8.9% 23.2%vs RHP 416 16.8% 14.3% 15.0% 20

3 Kyle Karros 46 D — WARM 48 0.161 89.4 8.3% 19.5%vs RHP 418 11.0% 20.0% 17.7% 13

4 Jake Mccarthy 42 D — WARM 68 0.186 85.5 6.7% 15.5%vs RHP 415 10.5% 0.0% 10.3% 44

5 Tj Rumfield 41 D — HOT 79 0.158 84.2 6.4% 12.4%vs RHP 412 10.5% 100.0% 10.0% 34

6 Cole Carrigg 41 D — · 80 0.175 87.3 6.7% 12.5%vs RHP 402 6.8% 10.0% 9.3% 31

7 Ezequiel Tovar 39 D — COOL 91 0.124 87.4 7.2% 14.5%vs RHP 409 8.0% 11.1% 10.4% 17

8 Troy Johnston 31 D — COOL 118 0.115 89.7 4.3% 4.0%vs RHP 411 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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