TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.89×

SF @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 11 mph cross 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

6:45p

-6 ↑

7:45p

-6 ↑

8:45p

-7 ↑

9:45p

-6 ↑

10:45p

the 6:45p window peaks -6

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 9 · vs Mathews ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 11 · vs Roupp → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Quinn Mathews LHP · STL

leak 76

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge — D ●○○○○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●○○○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee — D ○○○○○

FADE Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 72

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker — D ●●○○○

2 Alec Burleson — D ●○○○○

3 Nolan Gorman — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: Match 11.8% · 14D pace 10.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ COOL vs Roupp — 0.207 · 92.4 · 8.1% 10.0% 11.8% F B O D 44

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Mathews — 0.186 · 92.5 · 6.7% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 41

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.184 · 92.0 · 7.5% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 40

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Mathews — 0.146 · 86.4 · 4.5% 8.3% 7.0% F B O D 31

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Roupp Edge — 0.130 · 89.6 · 7.3% 9.1% 5.8% F B O D 33

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Roupp — 0.133 · 89.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 27

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Mathews — 0.123 · 87.6 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· STL Masyn Winn vs Roupp — 0.087 · 88.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 23

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.122 · 85.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 28

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Roupp — 0.109 · 86.0 · 3.4% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Quinn Mathews — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Landen Roupp — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker

Legend

attack side — vs Mathews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 11 mph cross 82°F open

-6

↑

8 mph · cross

82°F

6:45p · peak

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

80°F

7:45p

-6

↑

10 mph · cross

78°F

8:45p

-7

↑

11 mph · cross

76°F

9:45p

-6

↑

11 mph · cross

75°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 82°F, wind 11 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Quinn Mathews · LHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Bryce Eldridge 41 D — · 78 0.186 92.5 6.7% 26.1%vs LHP 398 17.5% 7.7% 10.8% 36

2 Drew Gilbert 31 D — COOL 120 0.146 86.4 4.5% 11.1% 394 7.3% 8.3% 7.0% 21

3 Jung Hoo Lee 25 D — WARM 139 0.123 87.6 3.1% 8.0%vs LHP 382 5.2% 0.0% 6.0% 41

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 44 D — COOL 58 0.207 92.4 8.1% 25.7%vs RHP 406 17.0% 10.0% 11.8% 27

2 Alec Burleson 40 D — COOL 85 0.184 92.0 7.5% 21.8%vs RHP 406 14.0% 8.3% 9.0% 35

3 Nolan Gorman 33 D — WARM 113 0.130 89.6 7.3% 14.5%vs RHP 407 9.5% 9.1% 5.8% 21

4 Nathan Church 28 D — COOL 134 0.122 85.9 5.4% 13.3%vs RHP 386 7.5% 0.0% 5.7% 38

5 Ivan Herrera 27 D — · 136 0.133 89.3 5.3% 19.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 39

6 José Fermín 24 D — COOL 140 0.109 86.0 3.4% 6.1%vs RHP 390 5.4% 0.0% 5.7% 28

7 Masyn Winn 23 D — WARM 141 0.087 88.2 4.3% 7.7%vs RHP 385 4.0% 0.0% 5.9% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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