TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ LAA

Suppressed air · 0.98×

SEA @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 9 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:38p

+2 ↑

7:38p

+1 ↑

8:38p

+1 ↑

9:38p

-1 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +3

Best of game Zach Neto conv 22 · vs Anderson ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 25 · vs Detmers → edge: Zach Neto

ATTACK Kade Anderson LHP · SEA

leak 86

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto — C ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom — D ●●○○○

3 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 33

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena — D ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh — D ●●○○○

3 Dominic Canzone — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zach Neto: Match 19.1% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAA Zach Neto ✶ vs Anderson Edge — 0.200 · 89.7 · 9.5% 25.0% 19.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Detmers Edge — 0.200 · 90.5 · 7.6% 30.8% 19.7% F B O D 44

· SEA Cal Raleigh COOL vs Detmers Edge — 0.184 · 89.8 · 10.5% 16.7% 12.1% F B O D 43

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Detmers — 0.224 · 91.1 · 9.4% 15.4% 12.1% F B O D 45

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Anderson Edge — 0.144 · 87.8 · 7.4% 16.7% 7.6% F B O D 38

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Anderson — 0.148 · 88.6 · 8.1% 12.5% 9.7% F B O D 39

· LAA Mike Trout vs Anderson Edge — 0.185 · 89.9 · 11.0% 8.3% 10.0% F B O D 47

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Detmers Edge — 0.153 · 90.2 · 8.2% 7.7% 7.9% F B O D 36

· SEA Cole Young vs Detmers — 0.142 · 88.1 · 6.0% 9.1% 6.0% F B O D 31

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Anderson Edge — 0.113 · 87.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· LAA Wade Meckler COOL vs Anderson — 0.093 · 86.8 · 4.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 28

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Detmers — 0.123 · 87.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 26

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Detmers — 0.093 · 87.0 · 5.7% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Reid Detmers — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kade Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Arozarena Raleigh Neto

Legend

attack side — vs Anderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Zach Neto — · 50

Randy Arozarena — · 44

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 9 mph out 77°F open

↑

9 mph · out

77°F

6:38p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

75°F

7:38p

↑

8 mph · out

73°F

8:38p

↑

8 mph · out

72°F

9:38p

-1

↑

7 mph · slight_out

71°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 77°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 45 D — · 54 0.224 91.1 9.4% 26.3%vs LHP 404 15.3% 15.4% 12.1% 45

2 Randy Arozarena 44 D — WARM 56 0.200 90.5 7.6% 30.3%vs LHP 386 15.9% 30.8% 19.7% 40

3 Cal Raleigh 43 D — COOL 65 0.184 89.8 10.5% 25.0%vs LHP 383 15.6% 16.7% 12.1% 34

4 Julio Rodríguez 36 D — WARM 101 0.153 90.2 8.2% 19.1%vs LHP 404 15.0% 7.7% 7.9% 44

5 Cole Young 31 D — WARM 122 0.142 88.1 6.0% 8.1%vs LHP 383 11.3% 9.1% 6.0% 35

6 J.P. Crawford 26 D — COOL 137 0.123 87.9 6.5% 9.1%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 41

7 Josh Naylor 23 D — · 142 0.093 87.0 5.7% 10.0%vs LHP 392 5.6% 0.0% 5.7% 49

vs Kade Anderson · LHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto ✶ 50 C — · 35 0.200 89.7 9.5% 19.5%vs LHP 403 17.0% 25.0% 19.1% 32

2 Mike Trout 47 D — WARM 46 0.185 89.9 11.0% 16.1%vs LHP 409 13.4% 8.3% 10.0% 27

3 Josh Lowe 39 D — WARM 92 0.148 88.6 8.1% 0.0%vs LHP 394 9.8% 12.5% 9.7% 10

4 Vaughn Grissom 38 D — · 93 0.144 87.8 7.4% 3.7%vs LHP 391 9.8% 16.7% 7.6% 34

5 Oswald Peraza 32 D — COOL 117 0.113 87.3 7.0% 22.7%vs LHP 386 4.9% 0.0% 7.7% 13

6 Wade Meckler 28 D — COOL 133 0.093 86.8 4.9% 7.5% 396 5.6% 0.0% 5.9% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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