TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.36×

MIA @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 14 mph slight_out 96°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+11 ↑

6:40p

+13 ↑

7:40p

+9 ↑

8:40p

+6 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 7:40p at +13

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 27 · vs Alcantara ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 24 · vs Proxy → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 69

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — D ●●●●○

2 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll — D ●●○○○

FADE AZ Bullpen Proxy · AZ

leak 39

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers — C ●●●●○

2 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: Match 20.1% · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ vs Proxy — 0.218 · 92.6 · 12.5% 27.3% 20.1% F B O C 56

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Proxy — 0.225 · 91.5 · 14.1% 0.0% 14.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Alcantara — 0.206 · 84.9 · 6.1% 33.3% 19.8% F B O D 46

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Alcantara — 0.167 · 89.2 · 6.7% 18.2% 8.8% F B O D 40

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Alcantara Edge — 0.228 · 91.8 · 8.3% 10.0% 12.8% F B O D 48

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Proxy — 0.150 · 87.0 · 2.2% 15.4% 7.0% F B O D 31

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Alcantara Edge — 0.191 · 90.2 · 7.5% 10.0% 10.6% F B O D 44

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Alcantara — 0.161 · 90.6 · 7.6% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Proxy — 0.114 · 87.4 · 3.6% 8.3% 6.1% F B O D 29

· AZ Jose Fernandez vs Alcantara — 0.094 · 87.8 · 4.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 29

· MIA Xavier Edwards vs Proxy — 0.094 · 86.7 · 3.2% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 26

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Alcantara Edge — 0.112 · 87.4 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 28

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Alcantara Edge — 0.127 · 87.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 29

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Proxy — 0.135 · 89.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 34

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Alcantara — 0.106 · 86.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for AZ Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Sandy Alcantara — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Arenado Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Alcantara fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Stowers — · 56

Nolan Arenado — · 46

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 14 mph slight_out 96°F retractable

+11

↑

12 mph · out

98°F

6:40p

+13

↑

18 mph · out

96°F

7:40p · peak

↑

17 mph · slight_out

93°F

8:40p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

90°F

9:40p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

87°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.36× 96°F, wind 14 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs AZ Bullpen Proxy 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 56 C — · 27 0.218 92.6 12.5% 17.9% 400 14.4% 27.3% 20.1% 26

2 Heriberto Hernández 51 C — · 44 0.225 91.5 14.1% 21.8% 406 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 35

3 Otto Lopez 34 D — COOL 123 0.135 89.1 6.2% 7.2% 402 6.2% 0.0% 6.3% 43

4 Javier Sanoja 31 D — · 135 0.150 87.0 2.2% 7.3% 381 7.6% 15.4% 7.0% 49

5 Jakob Marsee 29 D — COOL 138 0.114 87.4 3.6% 7.3% 382 7.6% 8.3% 6.1% 40

6 Xavier Edwards 26 D — WARM 143 0.094 86.7 3.2% 5.1% 396 3.8% 0.0% 7.4% 3

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 48 D — · 43 0.228 91.8 8.3% 15.7%vs RHP 402 13.3% 10.0% 12.8% 25

2 Nolan Arenado 46 D — · 47 0.206 84.9 6.1% 21.9%vs RHP 390 16.5% 33.3% 19.8% 33

3 Ketel Marte 44 D — COOL 60 0.191 90.2 7.5% 14.6%vs RHP 408 14.7% 10.0% 10.6% 40

4 Tim Tawa 40 D — COOL 84 0.161 90.6 7.6% 24.4%vs RHP 399 10.0% 10.0% 9.4% 26

5 Gabriel Moreno 40 D — COOL 87 0.167 89.2 6.7% 14.3%vs RHP 400 10.9% 18.2% 8.8% 40

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 31 D — COOL 121 0.106 86.9 6.2% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.6% 0.0% 6.3% 14

7 Jose Fernandez 29 D — · 126 0.094 87.8 4.8% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0

8 Ildemaro Vargas 29 D — COOL 130 0.127 87.4 4.2% 6.0%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 6.4% 32

9 Geraldo Perdomo 28 D — COOL 132 0.112 87.4 3.9% 9.2%vs RHP 383 6.0% 0.0% 6.7% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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