TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.56×

NYY @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 13 mph in 61°F Roof open

Hourly window

-16 ↑

6:40p

-13 ↑

7:40p

-11 ↑

8:40p

-9 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -6

Best of game Ben Rice conv 30 · vs Kremer ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 30 · vs Warren → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 95

2.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●●

2 Cody Bellinger — D ●●●○○

3 Aaron Judge — C+ ●○○○○

FADE Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 84

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens — C ●●●●●

2 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●○○

3 Josh Bell — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 32.4% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Kremer Edge — 0.267 · 92.0 · 11.3% 27.3% 32.4% F B O C+ 66

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Warren Edge — 0.231 · 92.4 · 9.8% 33.3% 25.8% F B O C 58

· — Aaron Judge COOL vs Kremer — 0.264 · 94.0 · 13.7% 0.0% 19.0% F B O C+ 61

· — Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Kremer — 0.206 · 86.8 · 9.8% 0.0% 13.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Warren Edge — 0.166 · 87.8 · 7.5% 22.2% 17.6% F B O D 44

· — Cody Bellinger vs Kremer Edge — 0.166 · 89.1 · 7.4% 25.0% 14.8% F B O D 46

· MIN Josh Bell vs Warren Edge — 0.167 · 90.0 · 8.7% 18.2% 14.3% F B O D 45

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Warren Edge — 0.182 · 88.3 · 5.8% 8.3% 11.9% F B O D 42

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Warren — 0.161 · 89.9 · 9.4% 8.3% 10.3% F B O D 44

· — Austin Wells vs Kremer Edge — 0.127 · 89.2 · 7.7% 8.3% 8.6% F B O D 40

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Warren Edge — 0.099 · 89.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 32

· — Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Kremer Edge — 0.140 · 90.9 · 9.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 42

· — Jose Caballero COOL vs Kremer — 0.135 · 83.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 34

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Warren — 0.090 · 87.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 29

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Warren — 0.111 · 85.5 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Will Warren — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Dean Kremer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Bell Larnach Rice Bellinger

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ben Rice — · 66

Kody Clemens — · 58

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 13 mph in 61°F open

-16

↑

14 mph · in

59°F

6:40p

-13

↑

12 mph · in

59°F

7:40p

-11

↑

10 mph · in

59°F

8:40p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

59°F

9:40p

-6

↑

6 mph · cross

60°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.56× 61°F, wind 13 mph SSE (in) — modifier: -4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 58 C — · 14 0.231 92.4 9.8% 21.2%vs RHP 390 18.6% 33.3% 25.8% 32

2 Josh Bell 45 D — WARM 53 0.167 90.0 8.7% 20.6%vs RHP 409 11.8% 18.2% 14.3% 31

3 Trevor Larnach 44 D — WARM 57 0.166 87.8 7.5% 17.2%vs RHP 391 10.5% 22.2% 17.6% 20

4 Royce Lewis 44 D — COOL 61 0.161 89.9 9.4% 15.4%vs RHP 402 13.3% 8.3% 10.3% 31

5 Brooks Lee 42 D — · 71 0.182 88.3 5.8% 20.4%vs RHP 374 16.1% 8.3% 11.9% 40

6 Victor Caratini 32 D — WARM 114 0.099 89.5 7.1% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 6

7 Luke Keaschall 31 D — · 119 0.111 85.5 5.2% 9.8%vs RHP 378 6.9% 0.0% 7.7% 41

8 Austin Martin 29 D — COOL 127 0.090 87.0 4.9% 4.0%vs RHP 394 3.0% 0.0% 8.7% 3

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 2.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 66 C+ — COOL 3 0.267 92.0 11.3% 31.5%vs RHP 395 24.3% 27.3% 32.4% 33

2 Aaron Judge 61 C+ — COOL 9 0.264 94.0 13.7% 32.4%vs RHP 404 21.1% 0.0% 19.0% 8

3 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C — COOL 37 0.206 86.8 9.8% 17.9%vs RHP 390 16.2% 0.0% 13.7% 11

4 Cody Bellinger 46 D — WARM 49 0.166 89.1 7.4% 13.0%vs RHP 376 11.0% 25.0% 14.8% 43

5 Ryan Mcmahon 42 D — COOL 69 0.140 90.9 9.1% 17.2%vs RHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 9.4% 24

6 Austin Wells 40 D — WARM 88 0.127 89.2 7.7% 15.1%vs RHP 379 8.3% 8.3% 8.6% 22

7 Jose Caballero 34 D — COOL 108 0.135 83.9 6.1% 21.4%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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