Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-20T11:00:27-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-20
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Osleivis Basabe | Gavin Williams | Sweeper | +15.7 | -0.5 | 29% | 1 | 7 | #64 | |
| · | Jimmy Crooks | Brady Singer | Sweeper | +13.1 | +1.3 | 15% | 2 | 6 | #51 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.4 | +1.0 | 53% | 5 | 6 | #52 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.2 | +1.0 | 53% | 12 | 6 | #4 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | George Kirby | Knuckle Curve | +10.9 | +1.7 | 10% | 1 | 1 | #36 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.4 | +1.0 | 53% | 2 | 6 | #21 | |
| · | Tyler Tolbert | Gage Jump | Slider | +9.7 | -1.4 | 23% | 1 | 1 | #100 | |
| · | Cam Smith | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.1 | +1.0 | 53% | 5 | 6 | #9 | |
| · | Yainer Diaz | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.0 | 53% | 3 | 6 | #43 | |
| · | Isaac Paredes | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.2 | +1.0 | 53% | 5 | 6 | #30 | |
| · | Christian Walker | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.4 | +1.0 | 53% | 6 | 6 | #10 | |
| · | Tyler Tolbert | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.5 | 47% | 1 | 6 | #100 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.7 | +0.3 | 49% | 3 | 10 | #7 | |
| · | Christian Vazquez | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.8 | +1.0 | 53% | 3 | 6 | #85 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Jacob deGrom | Fastball | +1.9 | +0.2 | 42% | 4 | 12 | #18 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +5.8 | +2.1 | 19% | 0 | 1 | #40 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Jacob deGrom | Fastball | +1.9 | +0.2 | 42% | 6 | 12 | #88 | |
| · | Angel Martinez | Landen Roupp | Curveball | +6.5 | -0.9 | 26% | 3 | 2 | #97 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.2 | +0.3 | 49% | 3 | 10 | #8 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +1.8 | -1.9 | 49% | 11 | 4 | #11 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | George Kirby | Knuckle Curve | +7.9 | +1.7 | 10% | 2 | 1 | #22 | |
| · | Ivan Herrera | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.2 | +0.3 | 49% | 4 | 10 | #71 | |
| · | Nick Loftin | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.0 | +0.5 | 47% | 3 | 6 | #114 | |
| · | Maikel Garcia | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.0 | +0.5 | 47% | 1 | 6 | #120 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Landen Roupp | Cutter | +7.4 | +0.3 | 13% | 3 | 1 | #34 | |
| · | Garrett Mitchell | George Kirby | Sweeper | +3.8 | +0.0 | 29% | 0 | 4 | #92 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +4.5 | +2.1 | 19% | 1 | 1 | #2 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Grant Holmes | Fastball | +3.7 | +0.0 | 29% | 2 | 7 | #93 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Gavin Williams | Sweeper | +4.2 | -0.5 | 29% | 2 | 7 | #115 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Shane Bieber | Slider | +4.5 | +4.1 | 10% | 3 | 2 | #40 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+42.8 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+27.1 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.