Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-19T11:00:29-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-19
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Hao-Yu Lee | Paul Skenes | Splitter | +16.7 | -0.6 | 11% | 1 | 0 | #124 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Roki Sasaki | Splitter | +12.6 | -1.4 | 27% | 2 | 4 | #68 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | +2.1 | +5.0 | 42% | 7 | 2 | #77 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | +1.9 | +5.0 | 42% | 10 | 2 | #20 | |
| · | Esmerlyn Valdez | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | +1.5 | +5.0 | 42% | 4 | 2 | #16 | |
| · | Oneil Cruz | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | +0.6 | +5.0 | 42% | 4 | 2 | #21 | |
| · | Nick Gonzales | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | +0.5 | +5.0 | 42% | 1 | 2 | #198 | |
| · | Jake Burger | Cade Cavalli | Knuckle Curve | +8.2 | -0.7 | 26% | 1 | 2 | #48 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.8 | 56% | 7 | 7 | #28 | |
| · | Jacob Gonzalez | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | -0.1 | +5.0 | 42% | 1 | 2 | #131 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.2 | -0.8 | 56% | 12 | 7 | #142 | |
| · | Mickey Moniak | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.8 | +1.7 | 42% | 8 | 12 | #18 | |
| · | Byron Buxton | AJ Smith-Shawver | Fastball | +1.4 | -2.1 | 58% | 10 | 0 | #23 | |
| · | Spencer Horwitz | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | -0.6 | +5.0 | 42% | 5 | 2 | #116 | |
| · | Javier Sanoja | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +5.5 | -0.8 | 33% | 0 | 8 | #108 | |
| · | Henry Davis | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | -1.2 | +5.0 | 42% | 3 | 2 | #136 | |
| · | Jared Triolo | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | -1.0 | +5.0 | 42% | 1 | 2 | #203 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.1 | -0.8 | 56% | 7 | 7 | #36 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Max Scherzer | Slider | +4.5 | +3.1 | 23% | 3 | 6 | #58 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.3 | +1.7 | 42% | 7 | 12 | #68 | |
| · | Trevor Larnach | AJ Smith-Shawver | Fastball | +0.7 | -2.1 | 58% | 3 | 0 | #149 | |
| · | Willi Castro | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.1 | +1.7 | 42% | 7 | 12 | #71 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.7 | 42% | 4 | 12 | #102 | |
| · | Brooks Lee | AJ Smith-Shawver | Fastball | +0.5 | -2.1 | 58% | 7 | 0 | #137 | |
| · | Luke Keaschall | AJ Smith-Shawver | Fastball | +0.6 | -2.1 | 58% | 6 | 0 | #205 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.3 | 47% | 7 | 9 | #65 | |
| · | Josh Bell | AJ Smith-Shawver | Fastball | +0.4 | -2.1 | 58% | 7 | 0 | #87 | |
| · | George Springer | Drew Rasmussen | Cutter | +5.8 | -0.9 | 29% | 3 | 4 | #134 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.6 | 47% | 6 | 7 | #172 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +1.2 | -0.4 | 47% | 7 | 3 | #1 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+42.8 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+27.1 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.