Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-07-07T14:00:26-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
4
Edges That Hit HR
13%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-07
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | German Marquez | Knuckle Curve | +12.6 | -0.6 | 40% | 1 | 2 | #125 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Zac Gallen | Knuckle Curve | +10.7 | +2.9 | 18% | 1 | 2 | #51 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | German Marquez | Knuckle Curve | +6.7 | -0.6 | 40% | 1 | 2 | #37 | |
| · | Brandon Valenzuela | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +2.9 | -0.8 | 58% | 0 | 2 | #183 | |
| · | Ty France | Zac Gallen | Knuckle Curve | +8.5 | +2.9 | 18% | 0 | 2 | #41 | |
| · | Bryan Torres | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +2.2 | -2.0 | 63% | 3 | 4 | #143 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Hunter Dobbins | Splitter | +11.9 | +0.3 | 12% | 1 | 1 | #158 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +4.0 | +0.1 | 47% | 10 | 9 | #12 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +2.0 | -2.0 | 63% | 5 | 4 | #163 | |
| · | Daulton Varsho | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +2.1 | -0.8 | 58% | 1 | 2 | #196 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Jacob deGrom | Curveball | +10.8 | +2.2 | 6% | 0 | 2 | #181 | |
| 💥 | Kyle Schwarber | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +3.1 | +0.1 | 47% | 9 | 9 | #5 | |
| 💥 | Jordan Walker | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.0 | -2.0 | 63% | 7 | 4 | #88 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.0 | -2.0 | 63% | 10 | 4 | #222 | |
| · | Ivan Herrera | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.0 | -2.0 | 63% | 4 | 4 | #228 | |
| · | Lars Nootbaar | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.6 | -2.0 | 63% | 1 | 4 | #220 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Matt Svanson | Sinker | +1.6 | +1.1 | 46% | 3 | 3 | #50 | |
| · | William Contreras | Matt Svanson | Sinker | +1.6 | +1.1 | 46% | 2 | 3 | #153 | |
| · | Ernie Clement | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.2 | -0.8 | 58% | 2 | 2 | #227 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Hunter Dobbins | Curveball | +8.4 | +2.3 | 10% | 2 | 0 | #231 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Matt Svanson | Sinker | +1.4 | +1.1 | 46% | 1 | 3 | #239 | |
| 💥 | Juan Soto | Seth Lugo | Slurve | +7.6 | +5.1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | #14 | |
| 💥 | Ben Rice | Ian Seymour | Fastball | +6.4 | +0.4 | 24% | 13 | 3 | #3 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Noah Schultz | Sinker | +6.0 | +0.4 | 25% | 9 | 2 | #17 | |
| · | Andy Pages | Michael Lorenzen | Curveball | +7.9 | +1.5 | 13% | 1 | 3 | #26 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.8 | 48% | 3 | 4 | #195 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.1 | 47% | 4 | 9 | #36 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +2.7 | -2.6 | 50% | 4 | 3 | #63 | |
| · | Trea Turner | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.1 | 47% | 4 | 9 | #115 | |
| · | A.J. Ewing | Seth Lugo | Cutter | +8.5 | -0.2 | 16% | 1 | 2 | #140 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.2 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+23.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.0 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.