0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
13.1%
Overall HR/FB
6.35
FIP
4.83
xFIP
#1
Leakiest SP today (of 32, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
56
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 56th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 67.2%
BRK 32.4%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 5 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (67.2% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
46.0%
84.4
19.8°
3
+1.1
Sweeper Breaking
32.4%
84.7
28.8°
1
-0.2
Cutter Hard
21.2%
85.0
16.2°
1
+0.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB13.1% 56
HR/9—
FIP6.35 95
xFIP4.83
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-07
Sinker
Hard · 46.0% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle19.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches312
Sweeper
Breaking · 32.4% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.7 mph
Avg launch angle28.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches220
Cutter
Hard · 21.2% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.0 mph
Avg launch angle16.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches144
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Matt Svanson.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Busch Stadium
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.831
Wind
2 mph from WNW
Temp
81°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
2:15p
2
81°
-6
3:15p
2
81°
-6
4:15p
2
81°
-6
5:15p
2
81°
-6
6:15p
2
81°
-6
-6
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 2 mph from WNW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.