Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-07-06T14:00:45-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-06
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Heliot Ramos | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +10.1 | +0.5 | 39% | 1 | 4 | #41 | |
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +12.6 | +3.6 | 11% | 1 | 3 | #86 | |
| · | Rafael Devers | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +6.5 | +0.5 | 39% | 1 | 4 | #31 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +3.6 | -0.9 | 54% | 7 | 4 | #17 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +4.2 | -1.5 | 52% | 5 | 7 | #51 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.3 | 53% | 6 | 5 | #35 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +7.9 | +3.6 | 11% | 1 | 3 | #38 | |
| · | Starling Marte | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +4.3 | -0.6 | 43% | 1 | 5 | #95 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +6.3 | +2.5 | 22% | 0 | 4 | #44 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Griffin Jax | Fastball | +6.5 | +3.2 | 17% | 13 | 4 | #2 | |
| · | Ozzie Albies | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.3 | 53% | 7 | 5 | #59 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +2.5 | -1.5 | 52% | 3 | 7 | #108 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.2 | -0.3 | 53% | 8 | 5 | #13 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +1.3 | -0.9 | 54% | 5 | 4 | #71 | |
| · | Dominic Smith | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.3 | 53% | 3 | 5 | #85 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +3.4 | +0.5 | 39% | 0 | 4 | #108 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +2.6 | -0.4 | 44% | 3 | 9 | #16 | |
| · | Ty France | Brandon Pfaadt | Changeup | +6.6 | +4.3 | 10% | 1 | 2 | #30 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Kyle Freeland | Fastball | +3.2 | +3.8 | 26% | 10 | 7 | #6 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Griffin Jax | Fastball | +5.7 | +3.2 | 17% | 8 | 4 | #12 | |
| · | Mark Vientos | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +0.7 | -0.9 | 54% | 4 | 4 | #33 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Cam Schlittler | Fastball | +3.4 | -1.7 | 44% | 8 | 3 | #5 | |
| · | Salvador Perez | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +2.8 | -0.6 | 43% | 4 | 5 | #74 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Dustin May | Curveball | +8.4 | +2.4 | 7% | 2 | 0 | #119 | |
| · | Francisco Alvarez | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +0.3 | -0.9 | 54% | 3 | 4 | #45 | |
| · | Willy Adames | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +1.2 | -1.5 | 52% | 9 | 7 | #60 | |
| · | Drew Gilbert | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +1.0 | -1.5 | 52% | 2 | 7 | #109 | |
| · | Luis Arraez | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +1.0 | -1.5 | 52% | 2 | 7 | #118 | |
| · | Tyler Freeman | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.4 | 44% | 1 | 9 | #73 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Kyle Freeland | Fastball | +2.1 | +3.8 | 26% | 8 | 7 | #8 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.2 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+23.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.0 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.