Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-07-03T14:00:30-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-03
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Ben Rice | Mike Paredes | Fastball | +6.1 | +1.3 | 40% | 12 | 2 | #3 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Mike Paredes | Fastball | +6.0 | +1.3 | 40% | 8 | 2 | #9 | |
| · | Colton Cowser | Brady Singer | Sinker | +4.4 | +0.9 | 47% | 3 | 9 | #43 | |
| · | Christian Walker | Nick Martinez | Slider | +2.7 | +14.0 | 3% | 7 | 0 | #42 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +3.5 | +0.7 | 45% | 9 | 4 | #47 | |
| · | Leody Taveras | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.6 | +0.9 | 47% | 1 | 9 | #92 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Gavin Williams | Sweeper | +8.0 | +0.0 | 26% | 2 | 3 | #152 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Christian Scott | Fastball | +2.2 | +0.3 | 50% | 6 | 3 | #69 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Trevor Rogers | Cutter | +10.7 | +0.0 | 11% | 2 | 1 | #61 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.0 | -1.4 | 59% | 6 | 7 | #73 | |
| · | Dominic Smith | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.7 | +0.3 | 50% | 3 | 3 | #153 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +3.5 | -0.3 | 44% | 6 | 6 | #28 | |
| · | Coby Mayo | Brady Singer | Sinker | +1.6 | +0.9 | 47% | 3 | 9 | #40 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.8 | -1.4 | 59% | 4 | 7 | #123 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Jose Cabrera | Sweeper | +4.6 | +5.4 | 17% | 3 | 1 | #14 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Nick Martinez | Slider | +1.1 | +14.0 | 3% | 3 | 0 | #18 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Andre Pallante | Sinker | +8.0 | +0.6 | 19% | 2 | 1 | #22 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.3 | 50% | 8 | 3 | #48 | |
| · | Geraldo Perdomo | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.6 | -1.4 | 59% | 4 | 7 | #188 | |
| · | Ozzie Albies | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.3 | 50% | 6 | 3 | #116 | |
| · | Ernie Clement | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +2.0 | +0.7 | 45% | 2 | 4 | #189 | |
| · | Ketel Marte | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.2 | -1.4 | 59% | 6 | 7 | #45 | |
| · | Cam Smith | Nick Martinez | Slider | +0.8 | +14.0 | 3% | 3 | 0 | #60 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Andre Pallante | Slider | +6.8 | -1.9 | 30% | 2 | 2 | #22 | |
| · | Gunnar Henderson | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.8 | +0.9 | 47% | 3 | 9 | #34 | |
| · | Adley Rutschman | Brady Singer | Cutter | +7.2 | +4.1 | 7% | 3 | 2 | #50 | |
| · | Byron Buxton | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.3 | 43% | 10 | 3 | #2 | |
| · | Taylor Ward | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.6 | +0.9 | 47% | 0 | 9 | #95 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Jake Bennett | Curveball | +10.8 | +0.0 | 5% | 0 | 0 | #165 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Jose Cabrera | Curveball | +8.5 | +0.0 | 15% | 2 | 0 | #186 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.3 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+23.2 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.