Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-01T11:00:30-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-01
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Gabriel Arias | MacKenzie Gore | Curveball | +14.9 | +0.1 | 22% | 2 | 3 | #144 | |
| · | Ketel Marte | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +5.4 | -0.3 | 58% | 5 | 2 | #41 | |
| · | Justin Foscue | Joey Cantillo | Cutter | +14.1 | +3.9 | 4% | 2 | 2 | #75 | |
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +2.9 | -0.3 | 58% | 3 | 2 | #181 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Troy Melton | Fastball | +6.3 | +0.0 | 40% | 8 | 5 | #15 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Shane Drohan | Cutter | +12.6 | -0.6 | 12% | 2 | 1 | #70 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +3.4 | -0.6 | 53% | 9 | 4 | #20 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Troy Melton | Fastball | +5.7 | +0.0 | 40% | 11 | 5 | #3 | |
| · | Willy Adames | Zac Gallen | Knuckle Curve | +7.3 | +3.3 | 19% | 1 | 2 | #50 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +1.2 | -0.3 | 58% | 0 | 2 | #74 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.8 | 54% | 5 | 4 | #96 | |
| · | Nolan Arenado | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +1.1 | -0.3 | 58% | 3 | 2 | #167 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +3.0 | +0.1 | 47% | 5 | 9 | #13 | |
| · | A.J. Ewing | Braydon Fisher | Cutter | +8.7 | +5.1 | 4% | 1 | 0 | #107 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.9 | -0.3 | 58% | 1 | 2 | #141 | |
| · | Adrian Del Castillo | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.8 | -0.3 | 58% | 1 | 2 | #183 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Dean Kremer | Splitter | +7.2 | -4.9 | 42% | 0 | 0 | #84 | |
| · | Jacob Gonzalez | Dean Kremer | Curveball | +5.5 | +5.7 | 14% | 0 | 1 | #105 | |
| · | Ernie Clement | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.6 | 53% | 2 | 4 | #152 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.9 | 50% | 7 | 5 | #24 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.8 | 54% | 7 | 4 | #65 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +2.7 | -1.3 | 48% | 3 | 2 | #92 | |
| · | Javier Sanoja | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +5.5 | +2.8 | 22% | 0 | 4 | #118 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +2.1 | -0.9 | 50% | 3 | 5 | #159 | |
| · | Ivan Herrera | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.8 | 54% | 4 | 4 | #169 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.8 | 54% | 9 | 4 | #170 | |
| · | Nate Eaton | Andrew Alvarez | Fastball | +5.8 | +1.1 | 26% | 1 | 1 | #175 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Taj Bradley | Curveball | +6.3 | +4.9 | 10% | 4 | 4 | #24 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Zac Gallen | Fastball | +3.0 | +1.3 | 37% | 3 | 8 | #158 | |
| · | Luis Arraez | Zac Gallen | Knuckle Curve | +5.6 | +3.3 | 19% | 0 | 2 | #206 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.0 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+24.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.3 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.