Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-26T17:00:29-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-26
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Taj Bradley | Splitter | +25.2 | +0.0 | 19% | 1 | 0 | #128 | |
| · | Justin Foscue | Patrick Corbin | Cutter | +17.0 | +3.4 | 16% | 2 | 2 | #29 | |
| · | Andrew Vaughn | Colin Rea | Fastball | +7.8 | +1.0 | 41% | 3 | 4 | #77 | |
| · | Jared Young | Zack Wheeler | Splitter | +15.3 | -1.4 | 14% | 1 | 1 | #53 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +6.8 | -0.9 | 50% | 8 | 2 | #21 | |
| · | Griffin Conine | Michael McGreevy | Fastball | +10.8 | +0.1 | 25% | 2 | 5 | #50 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | Nick Martinez | Slider | +3.5 | +14.7 | 3% | 2 | 0 | #49 | |
| · | George Springer | Nathan Eovaldi | Cutter | +10.3 | +0.9 | 21% | 3 | 4 | #55 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Steven Cruz | Fastball | +1.8 | +0.5 | 58% | 2 | 4 | #105 | |
| · | Miguel Vargas | Steven Cruz | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.5 | 58% | 5 | 4 | #26 | |
| · | Andrew Benintendi | Steven Cruz | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.5 | 58% | 5 | 4 | #37 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +3.4 | -1.0 | 54% | 3 | 4 | #203 | |
| · | Nicky Lopez | Patrick Corbin | Sinker | +7.3 | +1.3 | 29% | 0 | 3 | #230 | |
| · | Matt Shaw | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.8 | -2.1 | 64% | 3 | 3 | #122 | |
| · | Dansby Swanson | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.4 | -2.1 | 64% | 5 | 3 | #100 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.5 | -2.1 | 64% | 0 | 3 | #189 | |
| · | Kyle Higashioka | Patrick Corbin | Cutter | +7.4 | +3.4 | 16% | 1 | 2 | #72 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +3.1 | -0.2 | 48% | 6 | 6 | #84 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Steven Cruz | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.5 | 58% | 1 | 4 | #136 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Colin Rea | Fastball | +3.3 | +1.0 | 41% | 5 | 4 | #3 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +2.9 | -0.2 | 48% | 8 | 6 | #39 | |
| · | Ian Happ | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.8 | -2.1 | 64% | 6 | 3 | #63 | |
| · | Lars Nootbaar | Max Meyer | Sweeper | +7.2 | -0.3 | 29% | 1 | 1 | #145 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.8 | -2.1 | 64% | 3 | 3 | #146 | |
| · | Chase Meidroth | Steven Cruz | Fastball | -0.1 | +0.5 | 58% | 3 | 4 | #165 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Nick Martinez | Slider | +1.0 | +14.7 | 3% | 1 | 0 | #108 | |
| · | Mickey Moniak | Taj Bradley | Curveball | +6.7 | +5.0 | 10% | 2 | 4 | #11 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +3.2 | +0.1 | 43% | 3 | 6 | #46 | |
| · | Anthony Volpe | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.9 | 50% | 1 | 2 | #219 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Nathan Eovaldi | Splitter | +5.9 | -1.9 | 37% | 1 | 4 | #4 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.6 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.1 RV allowed
Kyle Freeland
+21.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.