Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-24T11:00:30-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-24
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Griffin Conine | Jacob deGrom | Fastball | +13.5 | -0.5 | 43% | 2 | 10 | #26 | |
| · | Curtis Mead | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +11.8 | -0.8 | 33% | 0 | 4 | #17 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Trey Gibson | Curveball | +12.1 | +3.6 | 14% | 0 | 2 | #84 | |
| · | Zack Gelof | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +10.2 | +2.8 | 25% | 1 | 3 | #49 | |
| · | Elias Díaz | Eury Perez | Slider | +14.4 | -0.5 | 15% | 0 | 2 | #60 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Shane Drohan | Cutter | +13.2 | +0.6 | 13% | 2 | 1 | #73 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +8.3 | +2.8 | 25% | 2 | 3 | #27 | |
| · | Daylen Lile | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +9.2 | -0.8 | 33% | 1 | 4 | #145 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +7.9 | +1.1 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #222 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +8.7 | -0.9 | 31% | 1 | 1 | #92 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Nolan McLean | Sinker | +9.0 | -2.7 | 34% | 2 | 3 | #74 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +7.8 | -0.8 | 33% | 0 | 4 | #144 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Tarik Skubal | Fastball | +7.1 | -1.0 | 36% | 11 | 3 | #14 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Tarik Skubal | Fastball | +7.0 | -1.0 | 36% | 7 | 3 | #52 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Aaron Nola | Cutter | +9.1 | +3.6 | 9% | 5 | 1 | #38 | |
| · | Colson Montgomery | Tanner Bibee | Cutter | +7.6 | +0.3 | 26% | 5 | 7 | #10 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Nolan McLean | Sweeper | +7.9 | +2.4 | 17% | 1 | 2 | #226 | |
| · | Kerry Carpenter | Ryan Weathers | Changeup | +7.8 | +0.3 | 23% | 3 | 4 | #53 | |
| · | Nicky Lopez | Eury Perez | Sinker | +7.7 | +4.9 | 6% | 0 | 0 | #237 | |
| · | Nick Kurtz | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.5 | 48% | 9 | 5 | #13 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +2.9 | -0.8 | 46% | 7 | 3 | #18 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.5 | 48% | 9 | 5 | #27 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +3.3 | -1.8 | 48% | 8 | 3 | #58 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Shane Drohan | Cutter | +9.2 | +0.6 | 13% | 4 | 1 | #152 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Joe Ryan | Fastball | +3.1 | -0.6 | 44% | 8 | 5 | #9 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +2.8 | -1.8 | 48% | 6 | 3 | #104 | |
| · | J.P. Crawford | Braxton Ashcraft | Curveball | +8.2 | -2.0 | 25% | 2 | 2 | #207 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Gage Jump | Fastball | +3.3 | -2.5 | 48% | 3 | 0 | #229 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Aaron Nola | Fastball | +3.1 | +4.4 | 24% | 3 | 6 | #38 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Jacob deGrom | Fastball | +2.7 | -0.5 | 43% | 3 | 10 | #182 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.0 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+19.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.