TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.35×

SF @ COL

Coors Field · 8:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 5 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:10p

+7 ↑

7:10p

+7 ↑

8:10p

+7 ↑

9:10p

+7 ↑

10:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +7 FIT

Best of game Heliot Ramos conv 31 · vs Sullivan ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 37 · vs Ray → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Sean Sullivan LHP · COL

leak 97

2.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Heliot Ramos +260 C+ ●●●●●

2 Rafael Devers +205 C+ ●●●●●

3 Victor Bericoto +525 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 76

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +192 B ●●●●●

2 Kyle Karros +575 C ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Tovar +475 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 17.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Ray Edge +192 0.306 · 91.5 · 12.8% 36.4% 37.0% F B O B 77

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Sullivan Edge +260 0.189 · 92.0 · 10.0% 40.0% 21.2% F B O C+ 60

· SF Rafael Devers vs Sullivan +205 0.213 · 92.3 · 8.9% 33.3% 27.8% F B O C+ 65

· COL Kyle Karros HOT vs Ray Edge +575 0.154 · 89.8 · 8.8% 20.0% 15.9% F B O C 52

· SF Victor Bericoto vs Sullivan Edge +525 0.295 · 89.2 · 10.3% 0.0% 34.9% F B O C+ 60

· SF Casey Schmitt HOT vs Sullivan Edge +290 0.209 · 89.7 · 9.3% 9.1% 13.4% F B O C 59

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Ray +750 0.188 · 85.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 21.3% F B O C 53

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Sullivan Edge +290 0.202 · 88.3 · 7.9% 8.3% 12.9% F B O C 56

· SF Eric Haase COOL vs Sullivan Edge +425 0.224 · 85.7 · 10.3% 0.0% 20.9% F B O C 59

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Sullivan +330 0.189 · 92.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 15.2% F B O C 56

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Ray — 0.196 · 84.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Ray Edge +475 0.134 · 87.5 · 8.3% 20.0% 9.4% F B O D 48

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Sullivan +850 0.142 · 87.4 · 4.2% 8.3% 11.0% F B O D 44

· COL Willi Castro vs Ray Edge +400 0.113 · 88.4 · 7.8% 9.1% 8.1% F B O D 45

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Ray Edge +700 0.089 · 87.7 · 3.4% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 37

· SF Luis Arraez vs Sullivan +1000 0.134 · 87.4 · 2.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 40

· COL Troy Johnston vs Ray +525 0.144 · 89.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 41

· COL Edouard Julien vs Ray — 0.102 · 91.2 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.9% ← leak BRK 18.6% OFF 16.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 7

Rafael Devers L

13.8% 9.8% 10.9% 12.2% C+ 65 +205

Victor Bericoto R Edge

10.0% 18.2% 33.3% 14.7% C+ 60 +525

Heliot Ramos R Edge

14.3% 16.3% 10.0% 14.4% C+ 60 +260

Casey Schmitt R Edge

9.2% 17.8% 21.1% 12.5% C 59 +290

Eric Haase R Edge

19.4% 9.1% 0.0% 15.6% C 59 +425

Bryce Eldridge L

14.3% 0.0% 15.8% 11.3% C 56 +330

Willy Adames R Edge

8.3% 8.8% 15.0% 9.0% C 56 +290

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

118

Jung Hoo Lee L

3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 2.9% D 44 +850

156

Luis Arraez L

0.5% 0.0% 2.3% 0.6% D 40 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.9% usage) carries Sullivan's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.9% ← leak BRK 35.7% OFF 16.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R Edge

18.3% 17.8% 8.7% 17.1% B 77 +192

Neutral · 3

Jake Mccarthy L

6.2% 2.0% 13.6% 6.0% C 53 +750

Kyle Karros R Edge

6.7% 5.8% 17.6% 7.4% C 52 +575

Tj Rumfield L

6.9% 2.6% 6.8% 5.6% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

7.8% 10.0% 4.8% 8.3% D 48 +475

114

Willi Castro S Edge

5.8% 6.0% 7.7% 6.2% D 45 +400

130

Edouard Julien L

6.0% 11.8% 3.6% 6.9% D 43 —

150

Troy Johnston L

3.0% 4.2% 0.0% 2.7% D 41 +525

179

Tyler Freeman R Edge

2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 37 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.9% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Bericoto Ramos Goodman Karros Tovar

Legend

attack side — vs Sullivan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Hunter Goodman +192 · 77

Heliot Ramos +260 · 60

Rafael Devers +205 · 65

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 5 mph out 86°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

82°F

6:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

82°F

7:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

82°F

8:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

82°F

9:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

82°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 86°F, wind 5 mph ESE (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Sullivan · LHP 2.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 65 C+ +205 WARM 13 0.213 92.3 8.9% 11.5%vs LHP 403 16.4% 33.3% 27.8% 33

2 Victor Bericoto 60 C+ +525 · 26 0.295 89.2 10.3% 40.0% 424 20.0% 0.0% 34.9% 21

3 Heliot Ramos 60 C+ +260 WARM 28 0.189 92.0 10.0% 16.7%vs LHP 406 12.0% 40.0% 21.2% 16

4 Casey Schmitt 59 C +290 HOT 32 0.209 89.7 9.3% 13.6%vs LHP 394 15.9% 9.1% 13.4% 37

5 Eric Haase 59 C +425 COOL 33 0.224 85.7 10.3% 26.7% 398 12.5% 0.0% 20.9% 4

6 Bryce Eldridge 56 C +330 WARM 49 0.189 92.0 8.8% 14.3%vs LHP 389 19.0% 0.0% 15.2% 24

7 Willy Adames 56 C +290 COOL 51 0.202 88.3 7.9% 13.0%vs LHP 389 14.5% 8.3% 12.9% 20

8 Jung Hoo Lee 44 D +850 COOL 118 0.142 87.4 4.2% 11.8%vs LHP 378 5.2% 8.3% 11.0% 38

9 Luis Arraez 40 D +1000 WARM 156 0.134 87.4 2.0% 4.8%vs LHP 367 3.4% 0.0% 9.3% 36

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 77 B +192 WARM 2 0.306 91.5 12.8% 38.9%vs LHP 409 27.6% 36.4% 37.0% 30

2 Jake Mccarthy 53 C +750 WARM 60 0.188 85.5 7.7% 20.0%vs LHP 419 20.0% 0.0% 21.3% 49

3 Kyle Karros 52 C +575 HOT 66 0.154 89.8 8.8% 6.7%vs LHP 407 9.1% 20.0% 15.9% 21

4 Tj Rumfield 50 C — COOL 80 0.196 84.2 7.4% 5.9%vs LHP 406 10.0% 0.0% 10.7% 39

5 Ezequiel Tovar 48 D +475 COOL 97 0.134 87.5 8.3% 0.0%vs LHP 412 7.7% 20.0% 9.4% 31

6 Willi Castro 45 D +400 WARM 114 0.113 88.4 7.8% 6.7%vs LHP 425 6.2% 9.1% 8.1% 28

7 Edouard Julien 43 D — · 130 0.102 91.2 7.9% 9.4% 389 2.9% 0.0% 7.6% 18

8 Troy Johnston 41 D +525 WARM 150 0.144 89.5 4.7% 6.2%vs LHP 415 1.6% 0.0% 7.9% 23

9 Tyler Freeman 37 D +700 COOL 179 0.089 87.7 3.4% 22.2%vs LHP 369 2.8% 0.0% 10.0% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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