TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.11×

STL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 8:08p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.11× Wind 2 mph cross 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:08p

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8:08p

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9:08p

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10:08p

+6 ↑

11:08p

conditions build late — the 11:08p window peaks +6

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 30 · vs Leahy ⟷ Nathan Church conv 24 · vs Imanaga → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 91

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Dansby Swanson +525 C+ ●●●●●

3 Michael Busch +500 C ●●●●○

FADE Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 89

1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathan Church — C ●●●●○

2 Jordan Walker +320 C+ ●●○○○

3 Masyn Winn +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 32.0% · 14D pace 28.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs Leahy Edge +390 0.232 · 90.8 · 11.2% 28.6% 32.0% F B O C+ 66

· CHC Dansby Swanson HOT vs Leahy +525 0.212 · 89.9 · 10.1% 35.7% 24.3% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Michael Busch vs Leahy Edge +500 0.166 · 88.5 · 11.6% 28.6% 20.7% F B O C 58

· STL Nathan Church vs Imanaga — 0.156 · 86.3 · 9.6% 30.0% 18.4% F B O C 53

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Leahy +425 0.192 · 89.4 · 10.0% 21.4% 22.9% F B O C 57

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Imanaga Edge +320 0.232 · 93.7 · 11.9% 9.1% 22.3% F B O C+ 64

· CHC Ian Happ vs Leahy Edge +500 0.233 · 89.8 · 12.8% 7.1% 19.9% F B O C+ 64

· STL Alec Burleson vs Imanaga +500 0.199 · 91.6 · 10.8% 11.1% 12.3% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· STL Masyn Winn vs Imanaga Edge +750 0.084 · 87.3 · 5.7% 18.2% 7.4% F B O D 39

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Leahy +700 0.131 · 87.8 · 7.4% 7.7% 8.3% F B O D 44

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Imanaga Edge +425 0.157 · 89.5 · 8.3% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 46

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Imanaga +525 0.138 · 90.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 46

· STL Pedro Pages COOL vs Imanaga Edge +750 0.129 · 86.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Leahy +750 0.114 · 88.4 · 8.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 43

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Leahy — 0.097 · 85.5 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.3% ← leak OFF 33.1% BRK 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jordan Walker R Edge

13.5% 19.2% 12.7% 13.9% C+ 64 +320

Alec Burleson L

11.2% 8.2% 13.3% 11.2% C 58 +500

Nathan Church L

10.0% 7.9% 7.5% 8.7% C 53 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

100

Ivan Herrera R Edge

6.5% 9.4% 7.7% 7.2% D 46 +425

101

Jj Wetherholt L

11.0% 2.7% 4.4% 8.1% D 46 +525

127

Pedro Pages R Edge

9.1% 0.0% 2.6% 5.6% D 42 +750

157

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.3% 4.0% 2.6% 3.1% D 39 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.3% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 44.8% FB 42.1% OFF 13.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

13.6% 8.9% 10.2% 10.5% C+ 66 +390

Ian Happ S Edge

21.3% 16.8% 3.8% 14.5% C+ 64 +500

Dansby Swanson R

4.6% 9.1% 14.8% 8.5% C+ 61 +525

Michael Busch L Edge

8.3% 13.2% 3.6% 11.1% C 58 +500

Seiya Suzuki R

7.6% 10.0% 0.0% 8.5% C 57 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

111

Alex Bregman R

7.1% 4.9% 6.9% 5.7% D 44 +700

124

Carson Kelly R

4.1% 7.8% 6.7% 6.6% D 43 +750

190

Nico Hoerner R

0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 1.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Leahy's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Church Crow-Armstrong Happ Swanson Busch Suzuki

Legend

attack side — vs Leahy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong +390 · 66

Dansby Swanson +525 · 61

Michael Busch +500 · 58

Nathan Church — · 53

Seiya Suzuki +425 · 57

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 7:08p · roof open

Park 1.11× Wind 2 mph cross 70°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

7:08p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

66°F

8:08p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

64°F

9:08p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

62°F

10:08p

↑

5 mph · out

61°F

11:08p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 70°F, wind 2 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 64 C+ +320 COOL 16 0.232 93.7 11.9% 40.0%vs LHP 407 17.8% 9.1% 22.3% 20

2 Alec Burleson 58 C +500 · 36 0.199 91.6 10.8% 4.0%vs LHP 404 17.3% 11.1% 12.3% 29

3 Nathan Church 53 C — WARM 61 0.156 86.3 9.6% 16.7%vs LHP 389 11.1% 30.0% 18.4% 26

4 Ivan Herrera 46 D +425 COOL 100 0.157 89.5 8.3% 31.2%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 28

5 Jj Wetherholt 46 D +525 COOL 101 0.138 90.0 8.6% 7.1%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 36

6 Pedro Pages 42 D +750 COOL 127 0.129 86.6 7.8% 0.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 5

7 Masyn Winn 39 D +750 · 157 0.084 87.3 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 389 5.0% 18.2% 7.4% 30

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 66 C+ +390 COOL 11 0.232 90.8 11.2% 22.9%vs RHP 392 20.5% 28.6% 32.0% 24

2 Ian Happ 64 C+ +500 · 17 0.233 89.8 12.8% 26.9%vs RHP 402 20.7% 7.1% 19.9% 22

3 Dansby Swanson 61 C+ +525 HOT 26 0.212 89.9 10.1% 21.1%vs RHP 403 15.1% 35.7% 24.3% 35

4 Michael Busch 58 C +500 · 40 0.166 88.5 11.6% 14.8%vs RHP 403 13.5% 28.6% 20.7% 30

5 Seiya Suzuki 57 C +425 · 46 0.192 89.4 10.0% 24.4%vs RHP 407 13.4% 21.4% 22.9% 32

6 Alex Bregman 44 D +700 · 111 0.131 87.8 7.4% 15.7%vs RHP 398 7.0% 7.7% 8.3% 33

7 Carson Kelly 43 D +750 COOL 124 0.114 88.4 8.6% 5.3%vs RHP 421 5.4% 0.0% 7.1% 18

8 Nico Hoerner 34 D — COOL 190 0.097 85.5 3.3% 4.1%vs RHP 383 4.6% 0.0% 6.9% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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