TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ TEX

Playable air · 1.08×

DET @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 4:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 4 mph slight_out 81°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

3:05p

+8 ↑

4:05p

+8 ↑

5:05p

+9 ↑

6:05p

+9 ↑

7:05p

conditions build late — the 6:05p window peaks +9

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 42 · vs Flaherty ⟷ Kerry Carpenter conv 31 · vs Rocker → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Jack Flaherty RHP · DET

leak 72

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +400 D ●●●○○

3 Brandon Nimmo +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 22

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kerry Carpenter +335 C ●●●●●

2 Dillon Dingler +425 C+ ●●●●○

3 Riley Greene +370 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 28.4% · 14D pace 55.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ HOT vs Flaherty Edge +350 0.237 · 92.1 · 10.2% 55.6% 28.4% F B O C+ 61

· DET Kerry Carpenter vs Rocker Edge +335 0.246 · 91.0 · 9.1% 30.0% 31.2% F B O C 57

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Rocker +425 0.286 · 90.3 · 9.6% 25.0% 23.2% F B O C+ 61

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Rocker +400 0.198 · 90.2 · 10.3% 8.3% 16.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· DET Riley Greene vs Rocker Edge +370 0.164 · 92.0 · 10.1% 16.7% 18.1% F B O D 48

· TEX Jake Burger vs Flaherty +400 0.184 · 90.1 · 9.2% 16.7% 16.0% F B O D 49

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Rocker Edge +700 0.132 · 88.7 · 7.4% 22.2% 10.4% F B O D 40

· TEX Brandon Nimmo HOT vs Flaherty Edge +425 0.162 · 92.7 · 10.8% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 47

· TEX Josh Jung vs Flaherty +525 0.148 · 90.3 · 7.2% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 41

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Flaherty +750 0.138 · 88.9 · 7.0% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 39

· TEX Evan Carter vs Flaherty Edge +575 0.147 · 87.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 42

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Rocker Edge +575 0.136 · 88.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Rocker Edge +750 0.095 · 84.1 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 28

· DET Matt Vierling COOL vs Rocker — 0.129 · 87.5 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 36

· TEX Alejandro Osuna vs Flaherty Edge +950 0.025 · 87.6 · — 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.6% ← leak BRK 38.4% OFF 5.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dillon Dingler R

13.8% 12.3% 6.9% 12.7% C+ 61 +425

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

10.4% 11.4% 8.7% 10.4% C 57 +335

Spencer Torkelson R

17.4% 7.5% 22.2% 15.1% C 51 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L Edge

15.6% 15.4% 6.4% 13.7% D 48 +370

147

Colt Keith L Edge

6.6% 20.0% 4.7% 8.2% D 40 +700

169

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.8% 9.1% 2.4% 8.5% D 37 +575

180

Matt Vierling R

8.2% 3.0% 0.0% 5.3% D 36 —

212

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

2.0% 2.4% 0.0% 1.9% D 28 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.6% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.3% BRK 44.4% OFF 2.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

16.1% 10.4% 4.9% 11.9% C+ 61 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R

7.7% 11.2% 11.5% 9.5% D 49 +400

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.7% 17.4% 16.7% 13.4% D 47 +425

128

Evan Carter L Edge

9.4% 5.9% 0.0% 7.1% D 42 +575

136

Josh Jung R

8.0% 3.4% 0.0% 5.7% D 41 +525

155

Ezequiel Duran R

8.2% 4.3% 0.0% 5.7% D 39 +750

221

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Flaherty's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Carpenter Greene Keith Pederson Burger

Legend

attack side — vs Flaherty fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson +350 · 61

Kerry Carpenter +335 · 57

Dillon Dingler +425 · 61

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 3:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.98× Wind 4 mph slight_out 81°F retractable

↑

8 mph · out

93°F

3:05p

↑

8 mph · out

96°F

4:05p

↑

8 mph · out

97°F

5:05p

↑

9 mph · out

97°F

6:05p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

98°F

7:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 81°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 61 C+ +425 · 27 0.286 90.3 9.6% 29.8%vs RHP 397 20.7% 25.0% 23.2% 42

2 Kerry Carpenter 57 C +335 · 44 0.246 91.0 9.1% 27.7%vs RHP 380 17.9% 30.0% 31.2% 31

3 Spencer Torkelson 51 C +400 · 73 0.198 90.2 10.3% 24.1%vs RHP 393 15.3% 8.3% 16.5% 30

4 Riley Greene 48 D +370 WARM 92 0.164 92.0 10.1% 15.5%vs RHP 397 10.5% 16.7% 18.1% 36

5 Colt Keith 40 D +700 COOL 147 0.132 88.7 7.4% 10.0%vs RHP 378 5.5% 22.2% 10.4% 31

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 37 D +575 · 169 0.136 88.1 7.8% 7.2%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 40

7 Matt Vierling 36 D — COOL 180 0.129 87.5 6.4% 9.4%vs RHP 377 8.7% 0.0% 6.7% 29

8 Zach Mckinstry 28 D +750 COOL 212 0.095 84.1 3.8% 7.3%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 42

vs Jack Flaherty · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 61 C+ +350 HOT 25 0.237 92.1 10.2% 29.2%vs RHP 392 20.3% 55.6% 28.4% 26

2 Jake Burger 49 D +400 · 86 0.184 90.1 9.2% 23.9%vs RHP 396 13.9% 16.7% 16.0% 31

3 Brandon Nimmo 47 D +425 HOT 96 0.162 92.7 10.8% 13.6%vs RHP 411 9.1% 11.1% 9.6% 26

4 Evan Carter 42 D +575 WARM 128 0.147 87.9 8.1% 12.5%vs RHP 377 10.4% 0.0% 14.4% 8

5 Josh Jung 41 D +525 WARM 136 0.148 90.3 7.2% 16.7%vs RHP 386 11.2% 8.3% 9.0% 32

6 Ezequiel Duran 39 D +750 · 155 0.138 88.9 7.0% 14.7%vs RHP 377 8.9% 8.3% 8.2% 44

7 Alejandro Osuna 19 D +950 · 221 0.025 87.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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