TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.73×

TOR @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 3 mph cross 57°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:10p

-2 ↑

2:10p

+1 ↑

3:10p

+3 ↑

4:10p

+4 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +4

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 27 · vs Bieber ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 28 · vs Gilbert → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Shane Bieber RHP

leak 100

4.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.53 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Colt Emerson +750 C ●●●○○

3 Cole Young +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 79

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +370 C ●●●●○

2 Daulton Varsho +500 D ●●●○○

3 Nathan Lukes +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 15.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Gilbert +370 0.219 · 91.6 · 12.6% 33.3% 22.9% F B O C 54

· — Dominic Canzone ✶ vs Bieber Edge +390 0.281 · 93.2 · 16.9% 22.2% 32.2% F B O C+ 66

· — Colt Emerson HOT vs Bieber Edge +750 0.230 · 86.8 · 10.8% 12.5% 23.0% F B O C 51

· — Luke Raley vs Bieber Edge +400 0.239 · 91.0 · 17.5% 0.0% 19.5% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Gilbert Edge +500 0.160 · 86.0 · 8.5% 18.2% 14.4% F B O D 38

· — Cole Young vs Bieber Edge +700 0.145 · 88.2 · 9.9% 16.7% 15.8% F B O D 44

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Gilbert Edge +750 0.116 · 86.4 · 3.9% 16.7% 9.7% F B O D 29

· — Randy Arozarena COOL vs Bieber +475 0.163 · 91.4 · 11.8% 10.0% 11.5% F B O D 47

· — Cal Raleigh vs Bieber Edge +320 0.142 · 87.7 · 14.3% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 47

· — J.P. Crawford COOL vs Bieber Edge +700 0.143 · — · 11.5% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 41

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Gilbert Edge +750 0.179 · 88.9 · 9.4% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 38

· — Josh Naylor vs Bieber Edge +500 0.110 · 87.6 · 9.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 38

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Gilbert Edge +850 0.135 · 86.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 28

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Gilbert +850 0.137 · 85.6 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.0% ← leak BRK 31.5% OFF 22.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.4% 8.8% 17.6% 14.4% C 54 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

159

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

3.0% 21.1% 13.6% 8.3% D 38 +750

160

Daulton Varsho L Edge

9.3% 1.7% 7.4% 6.7% D 38 +500

207

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.8% 3.7% 1.4% D 29 +750

209

Ernie Clement R

2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 2.4% D 29 +850

214

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.4% 2.9% 6.5% 3.7% D 28 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.0% usage) carries Gilbert's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.7% ← leak BRK 30.0% OFF 14.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dominic Canzone L Edge

18.0% 20.0% 8.7% 15.8% C+ 66 +390

Luke Raley L Edge

21.0% 13.8% 7.4% 16.8% C+ 60 +400

Colt Emerson L Edge

7.3% 4.5% 6.7% 6.4% C 51 +750

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Randy Arozarena R

9.4% 7.0% 5.6% 8.0% D 47 +475

Cal Raleigh S Edge

12.0% 8.8% 12.1% 11.3% D 47 +320

110

Cole Young L Edge

6.1% 11.5% 0.0% 6.3% D 44 +700

132

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.6% 8.9% 13.0% 7.2% D 41 +700

163

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.6% 8.5% 2.3% 5.0% D 38 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.7% usage) carries Bieber's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Varsho Lukes Canzone Emerson Young

Legend

attack side — vs Bieber fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kazuma Okamoto +370 · 54

Dominic Canzone +390 · 66

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.82× Wind 3 mph cross 57°F retractable

-4

↑

6 mph · slight_out

65°F

1:10p

-2

↑

6 mph · slight_out

67°F

2:10p

↑

8 mph · out

69°F

3:10p

↑

9 mph · out

70°F

4:10p

↑

10 mph · out

71°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.73× 57°F, wind 3 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 54 C +370 COOL 55 0.219 91.6 12.6% 32.6%vs RHP 400 19.1% 33.3% 22.9% 25

2 Brandon Valenzuela 38 D +750 COOL 159 0.179 88.9 9.4% 22.7%vs RHP 397 11.5% 0.0% 10.6% 8

3 Daulton Varsho 38 D +500 WARM 160 0.160 86.0 8.5% 14.6%vs RHP 386 8.6% 18.2% 14.4% 24

4 Nathan Lukes 29 D +750 WARM 207 0.116 86.4 3.9% 16.7%vs RHP 378 6.0% 16.7% 9.7% 30

5 Ernie Clement 29 D +850 COOL 209 0.137 85.6 5.1% 7.4%vs RHP 374 8.6% 0.0% 6.2% 30

6 Andres Gimenez 28 D +850 COOL 214 0.135 86.3 6.3% 12.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 22

vs Shane Bieber · RHP 4.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.53 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 66 C+ +390 WARM 10 0.281 93.2 16.9% 30.0%vs RHP 398 16.4% 22.2% 32.2% 16

2 Luke Raley 60 C+ +400 WARM 30 0.239 91.0 17.5% 35.0%vs RHP 385 16.1% 0.0% 19.5% 10

3 Colt Emerson 51 C +750 HOT 72 0.230 86.8 10.8% 45.5%vs RHP 369 17.4% 12.5% 23.0% 18

4 Randy Arozarena 47 D +475 COOL 95 0.163 91.4 11.8% 20.6%vs RHP 390 9.1% 10.0% 11.5% 22

5 Cal Raleigh 47 D +320 · 97 0.142 87.7 14.3% 13.5%vs RHP 391 12.3% 8.3% 9.1% 22

6 Cole Young 44 D +700 · 110 0.145 88.2 9.9% 14.0%vs RHP 390 9.5% 16.7% 15.8% 32

7 J.P. Crawford 41 D +700 COOL 132 0.143 — 11.5% 26.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 36

8 Josh Naylor 38 D +500 · 163 0.110 87.6 9.6% 14.6%vs RHP 390 8.8% 0.0% 8.6% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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