TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.20×

MIA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.20× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Owen Caissie conv 28 · vs Civale ⟷ Nick Kurtz conv 20 · vs Alcantara → edge: Owen Caissie

ATTACK Aaron Civale RHP · ATH

leak 89

1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Owen Caissie +320 C+ ●●●●○

2 Kyle Stowers +210 C ●●○○○

3 Otto Lopez +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 65

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Kurtz +950 C+ ●●●○○

2 Shea Langeliers — C+ ●●○○○

3 Carlos Cortes +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Owen Caissie: 15.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Owen Caissie ✶ vs Civale Edge +320 0.197 · 91.4 · 12.2% 25.0% 30.3% F B O C+ 66

· ATH Nick Kurtz vs Alcantara Edge +950 0.231 · 94.3 · 10.2% 18.2% 22.2% F B O C+ 64

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Civale Edge +210 0.195 · 91.3 · 10.4% 15.4% 16.2% F B O C 59

· ATH Shea Langeliers vs Alcantara — 0.238 · 91.4 · 9.0% 9.1% 17.6% F B O C+ 60

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Civale +400 0.155 · 89.9 · 8.3% 15.4% 10.4% F B O C 52

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Civale — 0.175 · 92.0 · 9.1% 0.0% 19.9% F B O C 52

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Civale Edge +425 0.176 · 85.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 15.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Civale +850 0.132 · 87.5 · 4.1% 12.5% 8.1% F B O D 44

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Civale Edge +525 0.094 · 86.5 · 5.6% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 43

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Alcantara Edge +400 0.153 · 89.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 45

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Alcantara Edge +350 0.113 · 88.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 41

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Civale Edge +850 0.129 · 86.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 46

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Alcantara Edge +700 0.075 · 86.2 · 2.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 67.1% ← leak BRK 26.9% OFF 6.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Owen Caissie L Edge

18.0% 5.4% 21.4% 15.1% C+ 66 +320

Kyle Stowers L Edge

13.8% 10.8% 3.4% 11.1% C 59 +210

Liam Hicks L Edge

4.0% 3.8% 4.3% 4.0% C 53 +425

Heriberto Hernández R

9.3% 6.8% 9.1% 8.5% C 52 —

Otto Lopez R

9.2% 4.9% 2.3% 6.7% C 52 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

104

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.8% 3.4% 2.0% 4.6% D 46 +850

112

Javier Sanoja R

1.0% 3.3% 0.0% 1.6% D 44 +850

125

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.7% 0.0% 8.3% 3.1% D 43 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.1% usage) carries Civale's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.6% ← leak OFF 22.1% BRK 20.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L Edge

17.8% 16.7% 20.8% 18.4% C+ 64 +950

Shea Langeliers R

16.8% 5.0% 16.1% 14.7% C+ 60 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

106

Carlos Cortes L Edge

8.0% 10.0% 5.6% 7.9% D 45 +400

135

Lawrence Butler L Edge

7.1% 5.1% 11.1% 7.3% D 41 +350

194

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.0% 2.0% 2.3% 0.9% D 33 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.6% usage) carries Alcantara's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caissie Stowers Kurtz Langeliers

Legend

attack side — vs Civale fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Owen Caissie +320 · 66

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 9:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.20× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.20× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Aaron Civale · RHP 1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie ✶ 66 C+ +320 WARM 12 0.197 91.4 12.2% 27.0%vs RHP 397 15.0% 25.0% 30.3% 19

2 Kyle Stowers 59 C +210 HOT 32 0.195 91.3 10.4% 18.9%vs RHP 401 9.8% 15.4% 16.2% 26

3 Liam Hicks 53 C +425 COOL 58 0.176 85.6 6.4% 24.0%vs RHP 376 16.9% 0.0% 15.5% 14

4 Heriberto Hernández 52 C — · 62 0.175 92.0 9.1% 16.7%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 26

5 Otto Lopez 52 C +400 WARM 64 0.155 89.9 8.3% 10.4%vs RHP 403 7.0% 15.4% 10.4% 43

6 Xavier Edwards 46 D +850 COOL 104 0.129 86.9 6.7% 4.3%vs RHP 396 5.9% 0.0% 8.7% 43

7 Javier Sanoja 44 D +850 WARM 112 0.132 87.5 4.1% 5.0%vs RHP 385 5.8% 12.5% 8.1% 29

8 Jakob Marsee 43 D +525 COOL 125 0.094 86.5 5.6% 7.0%vs RHP 379 7.2% 7.7% 9.2% 36

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 64 C+ +950 WARM 19 0.231 94.3 10.2% 41.9%vs RHP 410 22.0% 18.2% 22.2% 22

2 Shea Langeliers 60 C+ — · 29 0.238 91.4 9.0% 20.7%vs RHP 417 20.3% 9.1% 17.6% 28

3 Carlos Cortes 45 D +400 WARM 106 0.153 89.8 6.7% 16.2%vs RHP 404 4.8% 0.0% 14.2% 2

4 Lawrence Butler 41 D +350 · 135 0.113 88.8 6.1% 25.0%vs RHP 402 4.2% 0.0% 10.8% 17

5 Jeff Mcneil 33 D +700 COOL 194 0.075 86.2 2.2% 8.3%vs RHP 373 4.5% 0.0% 8.6% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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