TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ CIN

Playable air · 1.08×

BAL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 7:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 3 mph cross 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:10p

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9:10p

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the 9:10p window peaks +1

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 23 · vs Proxy ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 23 · vs Young → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK CIN Bullpen Proxy

leak 72

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso +265 C+ ●●●○○

2 Samuel Basallo +370 C+ ●●●○○

3 Taylor Ward +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 22

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +305 C ●●●●○

2 Spencer Steer — C ●●●○○

3 Elly De La Cruz +265 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 28.5% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Young +305 0.211 · 91.0 · 10.0% 23.1% 23.3% F B O C 58

· — Pete Alonso ✶ COOL vs Proxy +265 0.218 · 94.1 · 12.6% 16.7% 28.5% F B O C+ 67

· — Samuel Basallo vs Proxy +370 0.193 · 91.4 · 11.4% 20.0% 23.9% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Spencer Steer COOL vs Young — 0.186 · 89.3 · 9.2% 22.2% 19.8% F B O C 53

· — Coby Mayo vs Proxy — 0.178 · 91.8 · 9.6% 11.1% 15.4% F B O C 55

· — Colton Cowser COOL vs Proxy +425 0.158 · 86.5 · 12.0% 12.5% 12.6% F B O C 55

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Young Edge +265 0.221 · 94.4 · 9.9% 10.0% 14.7% F B O C 56

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Young Edge +255 0.250 · 89.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 18.5% F B O C 51

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe COOL vs Young Edge +390 0.209 · 88.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 51

· — Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Proxy +280 0.195 · 89.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 54

· — Adley Rutschman COOL vs Proxy +390 0.189 · 89.4 · 8.4% 0.0% 13.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· — Taylor Ward vs Proxy +400 0.099 · 89.3 · 5.3% 16.7% 9.9% F B O D 41

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Young +500 0.145 · 91.1 · 8.6% 12.5% 9.0% F B O D 46

· — Blaze Alexander vs Proxy +525 0.125 · 92.3 · 6.8% 11.1% 8.5% F B O D 45

· — Leody Taveras vs Proxy — 0.133 · 87.5 · 4.5% 11.1% 8.3% F B O D 41

· CIN Tj Friedl vs Young Edge +700 0.098 · 88.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 37

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Young +330 0.157 · 86.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 41

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Young — 0.148 · 88.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.0% ← leak BRK 25.5% OFF 21.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

15.9% 10.5% 14.3% 14.0% C 58 +305

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

21.5% 11.9% 2.6% 15.4% C 56 +265

Spencer Steer R

13.2% 10.4% 16.0% 12.7% C 53 —

Jj Bleday L Edge

11.1% 8.3% 7.0% 9.4% C 51 +255

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

8.9% 10.0% 13.8% 10.1% C 51 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

103

Tyler Stephenson R

14.6% 4.7% 7.7% 11.2% D 46 +500

114

Matt Mclain R

11.0% 11.1% 0.0% 10.0% D 43 —

133

Eugenio Suarez R

9.4% 3.6% 0.0% 7.4% D 41 +330

168

Tj Friedl L Edge

3.3% 4.5% 0.0% 3.0% D 37 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.0% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for CIN Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Steer Alonso Basallo Mayo Ward

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Sal Stewart +305 · 58

Samuel Basallo +370 · 60

Spencer Steer — · 53

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 3 mph cross 75°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

85°F

7:10p

↑

6 mph · cross

84°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · cross

81°F

9:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · cross

79°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · cross

77°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 75°F, wind 3 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Young · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 58 C +305 · 39 0.211 91.0 10.0% 20.4%vs RHP 393 12.5% 23.1% 23.3% 35

2 Elly De La Cruz 56 C +265 · 49 0.221 94.4 9.9% 17.5%vs RHP 395 15.2% 10.0% 14.7% 27

3 Spencer Steer 53 C — COOL 57 0.186 89.3 9.2% 17.4%vs RHP 394 12.7% 22.2% 19.8% 23

4 Jj Bleday 51 C +255 COOL 69 0.250 89.3 7.9% 28.6%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 25

5 Nathaniel Lowe 51 C +390 COOL 74 0.209 88.7 8.5% 30.0%vs RHP 398 14.3% 0.0% 16.0% 14

6 Tyler Stephenson 46 D +500 WARM 103 0.145 91.1 8.6% 16.2%vs RHP 384 7.4% 12.5% 9.0% 21

7 Matt Mclain 43 D — COOL 114 0.148 88.9 7.8% 10.2%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 13

8 Eugenio Suarez 41 D +330 · 133 0.157 86.9 7.1% 21.7%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 21

9 Tj Friedl 37 D +700 WARM 168 0.098 88.0 4.6% 7.7%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 8

vs CIN Bullpen Proxy 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 67 C+ +265 COOL 20 0.218 94.1 12.6% 21.6% 399 19.5% 16.7% 28.5% 21

2 Samuel Basallo 60 C+ +370 · 47 0.193 91.4 11.4% 20.7% 401 14.5% 20.0% 23.9% 25

3 Coby Mayo 55 C — WARM 67 0.178 91.8 9.6% 16.7% 403 14.5% 11.1% 15.4% 17

4 Colton Cowser 55 C +425 COOL 68 0.158 86.5 12.0% 18.8% 417 16.3% 12.5% 12.6% 19

5 Gunnar Henderson 54 C +280 COOL 77 0.195 89.5 7.7% 17.9% 388 17.6% 0.0% 14.4% 41

6 Adley Rutschman 52 C +390 COOL 90 0.189 89.4 8.4% 12.9% 400 10.9% 0.0% 13.1% 8

7 Blaze Alexander 45 D +525 WARM 131 0.125 92.3 6.8% 8.6% 392 5.5% 11.1% 8.5% 23

8 Taylor Ward 41 D +400 WARM 166 0.099 89.3 5.3% 5.8% 393 5.7% 16.7% 9.9% 33

9 Leody Taveras 41 D — WARM 167 0.133 87.5 4.5% 6.8% 410 1.7% 11.1% 8.3% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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