TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.31×

PHI @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 8 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:10p

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conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 32 · vs Luzardo ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 37 · vs Wacha → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 99

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen — C ●●●●●

2 Jac Caglianone +850 C ●●●●○

3 Nick Loftin — D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 55

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +625 C+ ●●●●●

2 Brandon Marsh +1000 C ●●●●●

3 Kyle Schwarber +390 B ●●●●●

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 20.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Wacha Edge +625 0.254 · 90.5 · 8.8% 38.5% 35.5% F B O C+ 65

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Wacha Edge +1000 0.203 · 89.7 · 7.9% 38.5% 25.9% F B O C 57

· KC Carter Jensen vs Luzardo — 0.196 · 91.0 · 7.4% 36.4% 26.7% F B O C 54

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Wacha Edge +390 0.321 · 93.3 · 11.1% 25.0% 36.6% F B O B 72

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Luzardo +850 0.204 · 93.8 · 9.6% 20.0% 34.8% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner vs Wacha +850 0.124 · 88.8 · 5.9% 23.1% 11.8% F B O D 43

· KC Nick Loftin vs Luzardo Edge — 0.156 · 88.1 · 6.0% 20.0% 12.4% F B O D 43

· KC Isaac Collins vs Luzardo Edge — 0.105 · 88.8 · 5.9% 11.1% 8.8% F B O D 37

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Wacha +850 0.137 · 90.0 · 5.4% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 42

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Wacha Edge +750 0.146 · 89.0 · 6.6% 7.7% 8.9% F B O D 43

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Luzardo — 0.173 · 90.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 14.6% F B O D 43

· KC Lane Thomas COOL vs Luzardo Edge +850 0.118 · 87.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 38

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.093 · 86.9 · 2.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· KC Starling Marte COOL vs Luzardo Edge +1000 0.066 · 89.1 · 8.5% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 38

· KC Tyler Tolbert COOL vs Luzardo Edge — 0.027 · 84.9 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.4% ← leak OFF 22.3% BRK 19.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.8% 28.0% 16.9% 20.0% B 72 +390

Neutral · 2

Bryce Harper L Edge

9.6% 9.6% 18.1% 12.4% C+ 65 +625

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.5% 2.9% 16.4% 10.0% C 57 +1000

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

124

Trea Turner R

8.0% 0.0% 3.4% 5.8% D 43 +850

127

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.1% 6.8% 5.6% 6.6% D 43 +750

138

Alec Bohm R

4.6% 3.4% 4.8% 4.5% D 42 +850

213

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.2% ← leak BRK 36.1% OFF 20.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L

16.9% 16.9% 11.1% 15.8% C 57 +850

Carter Jensen L

10.3% 8.0% 9.1% 9.3% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

122

Michael Massey L

8.7% 5.6% 3.1% 7.0% D 43 —

123

Nick Loftin R Edge

8.5% 3.2% 0.0% 6.0% D 43 —

176

Lane Thomas R Edge

6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% D 38 +850

177

Starling Marte R Edge

13.9% 13.0% 5.9% 11.8% D 38 +1000

181

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.7% 8.7% 0.0% 6.0% D 37 —

191

Tyler Tolbert R Edge

6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.2% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Caglianone Jensen Loftin

Legend

attack side — vs Luzardo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Bryce Harper +625 · 65

Brandon Marsh +1000 · 57

Carter Jensen — · 54

Kyle Schwarber +390 · 72

Jac Caglianone +850 · 57

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.09× Wind 8 mph out 74°F open

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

7:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 74°F, wind 8 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 72 B +390 · 4 0.321 93.3 11.1% 46.5%vs RHP 404 26.2% 25.0% 36.6% 26

2 Bryce Harper 65 C+ +625 · 10 0.254 90.5 8.8% 42.5%vs RHP 400 21.7% 38.5% 35.5% 40

3 Brandon Marsh 57 C +1000 WARM 46 0.203 89.7 7.9% 27.9%vs RHP 392 15.0% 38.5% 25.9% 38

4 Trea Turner 43 D +850 · 124 0.124 88.8 5.9% 17.6%vs RHP 393 12.2% 23.1% 11.8% 44

5 Bryson Stott 43 D +750 COOL 127 0.146 89.0 6.6% 10.5%vs RHP 393 9.0% 7.7% 8.9% 38

6 Alec Bohm 42 D +850 · 138 0.137 90.0 5.4% 18.2%vs RHP 389 11.2% 8.3% 9.0% 38

7 Justin Crawford 32 D — COOL 213 0.093 86.9 2.5% 6.7%vs RHP 382 3.3% 0.0% 7.5% 32

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 57 C +850 WARM 40 0.204 93.8 9.6% 33.3%vs LHP 418 13.2% 20.0% 34.8% 26

2 Carter Jensen 54 C — WARM 53 0.196 91.0 7.4% 13.3%vs LHP 393 16.9% 36.4% 26.7% 32

3 Michael Massey 43 D — COOL 122 0.173 90.4 6.4% 16.7%vs LHP 398 7.5% 0.0% 14.6% 30

4 Nick Loftin 43 D — · 123 0.156 88.1 6.0% 5.0%vs LHP 400 9.4% 20.0% 12.4% 30

5 Lane Thomas 38 D +850 COOL 176 0.118 87.6 4.9% 5.9%vs LHP 413 12.2% 0.0% 7.9% 28

6 Starling Marte 38 D +1000 COOL 177 0.066 89.1 8.5% 0.0%vs LHP 441 3.3% 0.0% 7.0% 13

7 Isaac Collins 37 D — · 181 0.105 88.8 5.9% 12.5%vs LHP 390 5.6% 11.1% 8.8% 23

8 Tyler Tolbert 36 D — COOL 191 0.027 84.9 4.6% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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