TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.89×

CWS @ CLE

Progressive Field · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 4 mph in 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:10p

-4 ↑

8:10p

-3 ↑

9:10p

-1 ↑

10:10p

+0 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Miguel Vargas conv 30 · vs Messick ⟷ Kyle Manzardo conv 16 · vs Burke → edge: Miguel Vargas

ATTACK Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 87

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Miguel Vargas +390 C ●●●●●

2 Colson Montgomery +350 C ●●○○○

3 Sam Antonacci — D ●●○○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 64

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Manzardo +390 D ●●○○○

2 Travis Bazzana +525 D ●●○○○

3 Brayan Rocchio +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Miguel Vargas: 14.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Miguel Vargas ✶ vs Messick Edge +390 0.234 · 90.3 · 9.8% 33.3% 26.5% F B O C 53

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Messick +350 0.249 · 89.7 · 9.7% 8.3% 15.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Kyle Manzardo vs Burke Edge +390 0.167 · 88.9 · 9.6% 16.7% 15.5% F B O D 43

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Messick — 0.135 · 87.9 · 6.6% 16.7% 6.9% F B O D 33

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Burke Edge +525 0.194 · 88.6 · 5.9% 8.3% 14.5% F B O D 40

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Messick — 0.187 · 89.3 · 8.1% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 40

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.121 · 87.7 · 5.5% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 29

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Messick — 0.156 · 86.8 · 5.3% 8.3% 6.9% F B O D 31

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Burke Edge +950 0.128 · 86.3 · 4.3% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 30

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Burke Edge +475 0.167 · 90.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 35

· CLE Rhys Hoskins COOL vs Burke — 0.173 · 88.5 · 9.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 40

· CWS Luisangel Acuna vs Messick Edge — 0.034 · 89.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 23

· CLE Daniel Schneemann vs Burke Edge — 0.137 · 88.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 35

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.050 · 83.3 · 1.8% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.3% ← leak OFF 24.4% BRK 18.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Miguel Vargas R Edge

15.9% 16.0% 10.6% 14.1% C 53 +390

Colson Montgomery L

14.3% 13.3% 14.3% 14.1% C 50 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

150

Andrew Benintendi L

13.7% 7.1% 6.4% 10.3% D 40 —

197

Sam Antonacci L

8.6% 0.0% 5.6% 6.6% D 33 —

202

Tristan Peters L

5.9% 0.0% 4.5% 4.7% D 31 —

208

Chase Meidroth R Edge

5.1% 2.6% 6.5% 5.0% D 29 —

219

Luisangel Acuna R Edge

6.0% 0.0% 5.6% 5.0% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.3% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 38.4% OFF 3.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

117

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

13.0% 10.5% 9.7% 11.8% D 43 +390

145

Travis Bazzana L Edge

6.7% 5.6% 0.0% 5.7% D 40 +525

149

Rhys Hoskins R

7.5% 13.8% 16.7% 9.7% D 40 —

182

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.0% 7.4% 2.1% 6.6% D 35 +475

185

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

11.0% 6.7% 0.0% 7.9% D 35 —

204

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.5% 4.3% 0.0% 2.7% D 30 +950

222

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Vargas Manzardo

Legend

attack side — vs Messick fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Miguel Vargas +390 · 53

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 4 mph in 71°F open

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

81°F

7:10p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

78°F

8:10p

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

75°F

9:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · out

70°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 71°F, wind 4 mph SSW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Miguel Vargas ✶ 53 C +390 · 60 0.234 90.3 9.8% 33.3%vs LHP 390 22.9% 33.3% 26.5% 38

2 Colson Montgomery 50 C +350 COOL 83 0.249 89.7 9.7% 35.0%vs LHP 398 25.8% 8.3% 15.3% 25

3 Andrew Benintendi 40 D — COOL 150 0.187 89.3 8.1% 14.9% 391 15.8% 9.1% 9.4% 30

4 Sam Antonacci 33 D — COOL 197 0.135 87.9 6.6% 10.2% 405 8.9% 16.7% 6.9% 37

5 Tristan Peters 31 D — WARM 202 0.156 86.8 5.3% 6.5% 369 6.6% 8.3% 6.9% 34

6 Chase Meidroth 29 D — COOL 208 0.121 87.7 5.5% 14.3%vs LHP 376 7.0% 8.3% 7.5% 29

7 Luisangel Acuna 23 D — WARM 219 0.034 89.3 5.3% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 12

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Manzardo 43 D +390 · 117 0.167 88.9 9.6% 23.3%vs RHP 389 11.7% 16.7% 15.5% 26

2 Travis Bazzana 40 D +525 WARM 145 0.194 88.6 5.9% 20.0%vs RHP 395 11.6% 8.3% 14.5% 31

3 Rhys Hoskins 40 D — COOL 149 0.173 88.5 9.0% 21.1%vs RHP 378 10.8% 0.0% 10.0% 12

4 Chase Delauter 35 D +475 WARM 182 0.167 90.5 6.5% 25.7%vs RHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 21

5 Daniel Schneemann 35 D — · 185 0.137 88.0 7.6% 13.9%vs RHP 398 7.2% 0.0% 7.3% 22

6 Brayan Rocchio 30 D +950 COOL 204 0.128 86.3 4.3% 10.5%vs RHP 382 6.2% 8.3% 6.6% 40

7 Steven Kwan 18 D — COOL 222 0.050 83.3 1.8% 2.1%vs RHP 381 1.3% 0.0% 5.7% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Unlock the full board — 7-day guarantee Already have an account? Sign in

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

The top 10 picks. Every morning.