TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.22×

SD @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.22× Wind 2 mph slight_out 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

7:10p

+11 ↑

8:10p

+11 ↑

9:10p

+10 ↑

10:10p

+10 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +12

Best of game Shohei Ohtani conv 34 · vs Canning ⟷ Manny Machado conv 35 · vs Yamamoto → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Griffin Canning RHP · SD

leak 100

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · leakiest side of this game

1 Shohei Ohtani — B ●●●●●

2 Max Muncy +370 C+ ●●●○○

3 Mookie Betts +400 C ●●●○○

FADE Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 81

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Gavin Sheets +525 C ●●●●○

3 Ty France +525 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado HOT vs Yamamoto +390 0.213 · 90.0 · 8.4% 38.5% 32.1% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ vs Canning Edge — 0.237 · 93.6 · 12.4% 23.1% 44.1% F B O B 72

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Yamamoto Edge +525 0.236 · 89.3 · 7.6% 11.1% 39.6% F B O C 58

· SD Ty France vs Yamamoto +525 0.220 · 91.3 · 8.7% 16.7% 32.6% F B O C 58

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Canning Edge +370 0.243 · 90.0 · 11.6% 12.5% 27.5% F B O C+ 68

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Canning +400 0.193 · 90.5 · 8.9% 23.1% 16.9% F B O C 58

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Canning Edge +390 0.203 · 90.8 · 10.6% 15.4% 24.0% F B O C+ 63

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Canning +390 0.202 · 89.2 · 9.2% 7.7% 12.8% F B O C 58

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Canning +425 0.173 · 90.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 11.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +525 0.138 · 89.9 · 8.1% 15.4% 10.6% F B O D 48

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Canning Edge +425 0.136 · 89.1 · 7.4% 9.1% 12.9% F B O D 49

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Canning Edge +700 0.101 · 88.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 45

· SD Miguel Andujar vs Yamamoto — 0.150 · 88.3 · 5.5% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 40

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Yamamoto +700 0.107 · 87.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.8% ← leak OFF 26.2% BRK 21.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Manny Machado R

12.3% 5.9% 7.5% 10.0% C+ 61 +390

Gavin Sheets L Edge

11.1% 6.2% 5.3% 9.1% C 58 +525

Ty France R

11.6% 9.1% 10.9% 10.9% C 58 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.1% 8.7% 8.1% 9.2% D 48 +525

143

Miguel Andujar R

3.8% 4.2% 5.6% 4.4% D 40 —

146

Xander Bogaerts R

7.1% 4.8% 3.8% 6.1% D 40 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Yamamoto's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.7% ← leak BRK 34.2% OFF 23.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.8% 10.1% 15.8% 16.7% B 72 —

Neutral · 5

Max Muncy S Edge

19.6% 14.6% 7.8% 15.3% C+ 68 +370

Freddie Freeman L Edge

11.5% 11.4% 12.2% 11.6% C+ 63 +390

Mookie Betts R

10.8% 4.2% 8.0% 8.7% C 58 +400

Andy Pages R

8.8% 9.4% 6.9% 8.8% C 58 +390

Teoscar Hernandez R

11.4% 13.3% 9.5% 11.5% C 51 +425

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Kyle Tucker L Edge

7.4% 4.4% 2.0% 5.6% D 49 +425

107

Alex Freeland S Edge

6.6% 10.7% 3.8% 6.9% D 45 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.7% usage) carries Canning's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado Sheets France Ohtani Muncy Freeman Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Canning fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Manny Machado +390 · 61

Shohei Ohtani — · 72

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.22× Wind 2 mph slight_out 63°F open

+12

↑

5 mph · out

74°F

7:10p · peak

+11

↑

4 mph · out

72°F

8:10p

+11

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

9:10p

+10

↑

4 mph · out

68°F

10:10p

+10

↑

4 mph · out

67°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 63°F, wind 2 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 61 C+ +390 HOT 22 0.213 90.0 8.4% 27.9%vs RHP 396 19.8% 38.5% 32.1% 33

2 Gavin Sheets 58 C +525 · 37 0.236 89.3 7.6% 35.7%vs RHP 397 13.5% 11.1% 39.6% 23

3 Ty France 58 C +525 · 38 0.220 91.3 8.7% 34.8%vs RHP 393 16.1% 16.7% 32.6% 26

4 Jackson Merrill 48 D +525 COOL 93 0.138 89.9 8.1% 12.2%vs RHP 404 12.5% 15.4% 10.6% 35

5 Miguel Andujar 40 D — WARM 143 0.150 88.3 5.5% 16.7%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 21

6 Xander Bogaerts 40 D +700 COOL 146 0.107 87.9 6.4% 18.4%vs RHP 395 8.9% 0.0% 10.5% 31

vs Griffin Canning · RHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 72 B — · 4 0.237 93.6 12.4% 25.5%vs RHP 406 18.1% 23.1% 44.1% 37

2 Max Muncy 68 C+ +370 COOL 7 0.243 90.0 11.6% 25.4%vs RHP 409 19.0% 12.5% 27.5% 54

3 Freddie Freeman 63 C+ +390 · 21 0.203 90.8 10.6% 19.0%vs RHP 398 14.3% 15.4% 24.0% 36

4 Mookie Betts 58 C +400 WARM 34 0.193 90.5 8.9% 20.0%vs RHP 385 13.0% 23.1% 16.9% 42

5 Andy Pages 58 C +390 COOL 35 0.202 89.2 9.2% 24.5%vs RHP 389 15.3% 7.7% 12.8% 37

6 Teoscar Hernandez 51 C +425 WARM 70 0.173 90.2 9.9% 25.0%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 8

7 Kyle Tucker 49 D +425 WARM 89 0.136 89.1 7.4% 11.3%vs RHP 399 6.0% 9.1% 12.9% 22

8 Alex Freeland 45 D +700 COOL 107 0.101 88.7 7.4% 10.3%vs RHP 373 3.1% 0.0% 12.3% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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