TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ ATL

Suppressed air · 0.96×

NYM @ ATL

Truist Park · 8:08p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph slight_out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

8:08p

-1 ↑

9:08p

-2 ↑

10:08p

-2 ↑

11:08p

-2 ↑

12:08a

best window is early — 8:08p at -1

Best of game Ozzie Albies conv 19 · vs Manaea ⟷ Mark Vientos conv 23 · vs Sale → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 97

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ozzie Albies +425 D ●●●○○

2 Matt Olson +390 C ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +475 C ●○○○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 49

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mark Vientos +475 D ●●●●○

2 Carson Benge +950 D ●●●○○

3 Bo Bichette +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Manaea +390 0.260 · 92.8 · 9.7% 8.3% 18.1% F B O C 56

· NYM Juan Soto vs Sale +475 0.254 · 93.0 · 9.1% 7.7% 14.0% F B O C 51

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Manaea +475 0.197 · 91.1 · 10.5% 0.0% 19.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Mark Vientos vs Sale Edge +475 0.177 · 89.4 · 7.5% 28.6% 18.2% F B O D 43

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Manaea Edge +425 0.164 · 87.2 · 5.4% 25.0% 13.9% F B O D 41

· NYM Carson Benge vs Sale +950 0.139 · 89.7 · 6.9% 21.4% 13.9% F B O D 38

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Sale Edge +500 0.129 · 90.6 · 6.4% 21.4% 10.4% F B O D 36

· NYM Luis Torrens vs Sale Edge — 0.103 · 88.0 · 5.1% 11.1% 11.4% F B O D 32

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Sale Edge +390 0.182 · 90.4 · 10.0% 0.0% 18.9% F B O D 40

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Sale — 0.133 · — · 5.9% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 29

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Manaea Edge +425 0.144 · 90.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 39

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Manaea Edge +750 0.145 · 86.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Manaea — 0.136 · 90.4 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 35

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Manaea — 0.135 · 87.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 36

· NYM Brett Baty vs Sale — 0.082 · 89.0 · 6.8% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.2% ← leak BRK 39.7% OFF 12.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L

17.9% 12.7% 5.6% 14.2% C 51 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

116

Mark Vientos R Edge

9.5% 12.8% 8.6% 10.2% D 43 +475

142

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

18.5% 15.7% 17.6% 17.3% D 40 +390

161

Carson Benge L

8.1% 8.3% 7.9% 8.1% D 38 +950

176

Bo Bichette R Edge

4.7% 13.0% 0.0% 6.9% D 36 +500

199

Luis Torrens R Edge

5.0% 5.6% 0.0% 4.4% D 32 —

206

A.J. Ewing L

8.2% 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% D 29 —

210

Brett Baty L

7.6% 11.9% 3.1% 7.8% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.2% usage) carries Sale's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.0% ← leak BRK 32.0% OFF 4.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L

16.3% 10.5% 10.3% 14.0% C 56 +390

Drake Baldwin L

17.1% 23.8% 0.0% 15.8% C 50 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

139

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.0% 1.2% 3.5% 4.0% D 41 +425

156

Austin Riley R Edge

12.1% 11.6% 3.8% 11.0% D 39 +425

179

Dominic Smith L

7.0% 6.8% 3.6% 6.4% D 36 —

184

Mike Yastrzemski L

3.4% 5.1% 10.7% 5.2% D 35 —

192

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

4.2% 6.3% 4.7% 4.9% D 33 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Vientos Benge Bichette Olson Albies

Legend

attack side — vs Manaea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Mark Vientos +475 · 43

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 8:08p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph slight_out 72°F open

-1

↑

4 mph · cross

82°F

8:08p · peak

-1

↑

3 mph · cross

80°F

9:08p

-2

↑

3 mph · cross

78°F

10:08p

-2

↑

2 mph · cross

76°F

11:08p

-2

↑

3 mph · cross

75°F

12:08a

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 72°F, wind 3 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 51 C +475 · 76 0.254 93.0 9.1% 15.4%vs LHP 399 19.4% 7.7% 14.0% 26

2 Mark Vientos 43 D +475 · 116 0.177 89.4 7.5% 23.8%vs LHP 410 12.7% 28.6% 18.2% 13

3 Francisco Alvarez 40 D +390 WARM 142 0.182 90.4 10.0% 25.0%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 24

4 Carson Benge 38 D +950 · 161 0.139 89.7 6.9% 23.1%vs LHP 399 9.6% 21.4% 13.9% 38

5 Bo Bichette 36 D +500 · 176 0.129 90.6 6.4% 21.1%vs LHP 385 10.5% 21.4% 10.4% 30

6 Luis Torrens 32 D — WARM 199 0.103 88.0 5.1% 16.7%vs LHP 394 6.7% 11.1% 11.4% 13

7 A.J. Ewing 29 D — · 206 0.133 — 5.9% 11.1%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 33

8 Brett Baty 29 D — · 210 0.082 89.0 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 415 3.7% 0.0% 5.7% 24

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 56 C +390 COOL 51 0.260 92.8 9.7% 20.0%vs LHP 409 20.9% 8.3% 18.1% 31

2 Drake Baldwin 50 C +475 COOL 81 0.197 91.1 10.5% 50.0%vs LHP 407 18.5% 0.0% 19.1% 25

3 Ozzie Albies 41 D +425 · 139 0.164 87.2 5.4% 15.4%vs LHP 383 14.0% 25.0% 13.9% 40

4 Austin Riley 39 D +425 COOL 156 0.144 90.7 8.2% 15.8%vs LHP 409 7.1% 0.0% 8.1% 26

5 Dominic Smith 36 D — COOL 179 0.135 87.8 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 7.5% 0.0% 7.2% 22

6 Mike Yastrzemski 35 D — COOL 184 0.136 90.4 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 374 7.3% 0.0% 7.3% 16

7 Mauricio Dubon 33 D +750 COOL 192 0.145 86.4 6.0% 11.1%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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