TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ MIL

Neutral air · 1.02×

SEA @ MIL

American Family Field · 2:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 5 mph in 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-7 ↑

1:10p

-7 ↑

2:10p

-6 ↑

3:10p

-5 ↑

4:10p

-6 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks -5

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 21 · vs Kirby ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 22 · vs Gasser → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 69

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +425 C ●●●○○

2 Jake Bauers +370 C ●●●○○

3 Christian Yelich +625 D ●●●○○

FADE Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 34

1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena +400 D ●●●○○

2 Julio Rodríguez +370 D ●●○○○

3 Dominic Canzone +425 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Kirby +425 0.193 · 92.0 · 9.8% 23.1% 19.3% F B O C 50

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Kirby Edge +370 0.234 · 92.5 · 10.0% 16.7% 21.5% F B O C 54

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Gasser +425 0.236 · 91.6 · 9.5% 8.3% 16.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Gasser Edge +400 0.180 · 90.9 · 7.3% 25.0% 19.8% F B O D 47

· MIL Christian Yelich HOT vs Kirby Edge +625 0.145 · 88.8 · 8.5% 20.0% 14.0% F B O D 41

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Gasser Edge +370 0.166 · 90.0 · 7.9% 16.7% 14.5% F B O D 46

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Kirby Edge +750 0.094 · 86.4 · 5.0% 14.3% 6.5% F B O D 30

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Gasser Edge +370 0.141 · 89.0 · 9.3% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 43

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Gasser +525 0.106 · 87.7 · 5.8% 10.0% 7.9% F B O D 33

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Gasser +625 0.142 · 88.9 · 5.7% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 37

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Kirby +475 0.125 · 90.0 · 7.6% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 36

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Kirby Edge +525 0.179 · 90.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 41

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Kirby Edge +525 0.148 · 92.6 · 9.6% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.8% ← leak BRK 25.7% OFF 9.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L

15.9% 11.8% 8.5% 13.0% C 53 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Randy Arozarena R Edge

7.8% 7.5% 7.0% 7.6% D 47 +400

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.4% 8.0% 9.1% 9.0% D 46 +370

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.3% 16.0% 14.0% 12.4% D 43 +370

Cole Young L

4.2% 8.9% 1.6% 4.7% D 37 +625

118

Josh Naylor L

4.6% 8.1% 1.5% 4.9% D 33 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.8% usage) carries Gasser's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.0% ← leak BRK 39.1% OFF 8.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.6% 12.0% 13.9% 13.8% C 54 +370

Jackson Chourio R

13.3% 14.8% 3.1% 12.5% C 50 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Christian Yelich L Edge

9.7% 9.7% 11.5% 9.9% D 41 +625

Brice Turang L Edge

9.4% 9.8% 1.7% 8.1% D 41 +525

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

15.6% 10.3% 6.1% 12.7% D 40 +525

105

William Contreras R

8.4% 9.5% 0.0% 8.0% D 36 +475

122

David Hamilton L Edge

3.8% 6.4% 0.0% 3.9% D 30 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.0% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Arozarena Rodríguez Bauers Chourio Yelich

Legend

attack side — vs Kirby fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jackson Chourio +425 · 50

Randy Arozarena +400 · 47

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 5 mph in 79°F retractable

-7

↑

5 mph · in

73°F

1:10p

-7

↑

5 mph · in

75°F

2:10p

-6

↑

4 mph · in

77°F

3:10p

-5

↑

4 mph · in

79°F

4:10p · peak

-6

↑

5 mph · in

77°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 79°F, wind 5 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 53 C +425 COOL 30 0.236 91.6 9.5% 40.0%vs LHP 402 15.7% 8.3% 16.4% 35

2 Randy Arozarena 47 D +400 COOL 48 0.180 90.9 7.3% 19.1%vs LHP 384 13.9% 25.0% 19.8% 35

3 Julio Rodríguez 46 D +370 WARM 53 0.166 90.0 7.9% 24.3%vs LHP 405 16.5% 16.7% 14.5% 32

4 Cal Raleigh 43 D +370 WARM 70 0.141 89.0 9.3% 20.8%vs LHP 390 12.9% 9.1% 9.4% 21

5 Cole Young 37 D +625 COOL 98 0.142 88.9 5.7% 12.1%vs LHP 385 11.6% 9.1% 7.3% 36

6 Josh Naylor 33 D +525 · 118 0.106 87.7 5.8% 11.1%vs LHP 392 6.7% 10.0% 7.9% 34

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 54 C +370 · 24 0.234 92.5 10.0% 30.8%vs RHP 401 19.6% 16.7% 21.5% 30

2 Jackson Chourio 50 C +425 · 37 0.193 92.0 9.8% 18.3%vs RHP 401 16.1% 23.1% 19.3% 35

3 Christian Yelich 41 D +625 HOT 78 0.145 88.8 8.5% 18.4%vs RHP 401 8.2% 20.0% 14.0% 25

4 Brice Turang 41 D +525 COOL 79 0.179 90.5 7.6% 24.6%vs RHP 407 10.7% 0.0% 11.4% 24

5 Garrett Mitchell 40 D +525 COOL 84 0.148 92.6 9.6% 22.9%vs RHP 415 7.0% 0.0% 9.3% 25

6 William Contreras 36 D +475 HOT 105 0.125 90.0 7.6% 15.8%vs RHP 415 9.6% 8.3% 7.5% 39

7 David Hamilton 30 D +750 COOL 122 0.094 86.4 5.0% 5.8%vs RHP 383 4.9% 14.3% 6.5% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.