TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.01×

ATL @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 38 · vs Holmes ⟷ Matt Olson conv 33 · vs Kay → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 85

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +255 B ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +350 C+ ●●●●○

3 Chase Meidroth +850 D ●●●○○

FADE Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 34

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +320 B ●●●●●

2 Austin Riley +425 D ●●○○○

3 Ronald Acuna — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 21.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Holmes Edge +255 0.311 · 94.3 · 13.7% 41.7% 34.9% F B O B 76

· ATL Matt Olson vs Kay +320 0.285 · 92.5 · 11.5% 38.5% 26.9% F B O B 71

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Holmes +350 0.248 · 90.7 · 11.4% 25.0% 27.8% F B O C+ 66

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Holmes Edge +330 0.218 · 88.8 · 10.3% 8.3% 16.1% F B O C 58

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Kay +400 0.181 · 91.7 · 10.6% 7.7% 12.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Holmes +850 0.135 · 87.8 · 6.3% 18.2% 15.3% F B O D 43

· ATL Austin Riley vs Kay Edge +425 0.147 · 91.3 · 10.3% 15.4% 15.0% F B O D 49

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Holmes Edge +750 0.157 · 87.3 · 6.6% 14.3% 9.7% F B O D 43

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.191 · 90.3 · 10.6% 0.0% 23.1% F B O D 49

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Kay Edge +500 0.169 · 86.9 · 6.0% 8.3% 11.2% F B O D 45

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Holmes Edge +625 0.134 · 89.2 · 5.9% 7.7% 8.8% F B O D 40

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Kay — 0.194 · 90.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 47

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Holmes Edge +500 0.180 · 88.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 49

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Holmes Edge +750 0.126 · 87.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Kay Edge +750 0.129 · 86.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Kay — 0.161 · 90.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 44

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Kay — 0.127 · 87.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.8% ← leak BRK 27.9% OFF 14.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L

18.0% 12.3% 11.6% 15.5% B 71 +320

Neutral · 1

Drake Baldwin L

13.0% 20.3% 4.2% 13.5% C 53 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Austin Riley R Edge

13.2% 14.1% 5.4% 12.5% D 49 +425

Ronald Acuna R Edge

13.4% 11.1% 15.4% 13.2% D 49 —

Michael Harris L

6.5% 13.5% 14.1% 10.3% D 47 —

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.7% 1.7% 2.8% 4.3% D 45 +500

Mike Yastrzemski L

7.6% 7.5% 6.1% 7.4% D 44 —

Dominic Smith L

5.8% 7.4% 2.5% 5.6% D 40 —

103

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

2.8% 5.5% 4.8% 3.9% D 36 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.8% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.1% ← leak BRK 43.8% OFF 6.1% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

24.8% 18.2% 16.7% 21.5% B 76 +255

Neutral · 2

Miguel Vargas R

16.3% 11.0% 13.5% 14.4% C+ 66 +350

Colson Montgomery L Edge

11.7% 11.1% 14.3% 12.0% C 58 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.5% 4.5% 5.4% 8.8% D 49 +500

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 4.8% D 43 +750

Chase Meidroth R

4.0% 5.8% 3.8% 4.5% D 43 +850

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.4% 4.9% 0.0% 5.7% D 41 +750

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.1% 3.2% 2.2% 3.8% D 40 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.1% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Murakami Vargas Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Munetaka Murakami +255 · 76

Matt Olson +320 · 71

Miguel Vargas +350 · 66

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.01× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.01× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 71 B +320 WARM 3 0.285 92.5 11.5% 23.7%vs LHP 408 25.0% 38.5% 26.9% 32

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C +400 COOL 28 0.181 91.7 10.6% 31.8%vs LHP 403 16.8% 7.7% 12.8% 47

3 Austin Riley 49 D +425 WARM 40 0.147 91.3 10.3% 16.0%vs LHP 407 9.5% 15.4% 15.0% 27

4 Ronald Acuna 49 D — COOL 41 0.191 90.3 10.6% 20.0%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 41

5 Michael Harris 47 D — COOL 50 0.194 90.7 9.5% 24.1%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 37

6 Ozzie Albies 45 D +500 COOL 58 0.169 86.9 6.0% 14.0%vs LHP 386 14.2% 8.3% 11.2% 39

7 Mike Yastrzemski 44 D — WARM 64 0.161 90.6 7.8% 0.0%vs LHP 389 8.6% 0.0% 7.7% 19

8 Dominic Smith 40 D — COOL 87 0.127 87.8 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 392 8.1% 0.0% 7.4% 7

9 Mauricio Dubon 36 D +750 COOL 103 0.129 86.9 5.7% 10.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 36

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 76 B +255 WARM 1 0.311 94.3 13.7% 39.0%vs RHP 402 21.1% 41.7% 34.9% 30

2 Miguel Vargas 66 C+ +350 · 5 0.248 90.7 11.4% 17.2%vs RHP 392 21.3% 25.0% 27.8% 39

3 Colson Montgomery 58 C +330 COOL 16 0.218 88.8 10.3% 24.7%vs RHP 399 21.4% 8.3% 16.1% 30

4 Andrew Benintendi 49 D +500 COOL 45 0.180 88.9 8.8% 17.3%vs RHP 388 13.4% 0.0% 12.2% 23

5 Tristan Peters 43 D +750 COOL 66 0.157 87.3 6.6% 10.6%vs RHP 377 8.0% 14.3% 9.7% 26

6 Chase Meidroth 43 D +850 COOL 67 0.135 87.8 6.3% 17.0%vs RHP 379 8.4% 18.2% 15.3% 35

7 Sam Antonacci 41 D +750 COOL 82 0.126 87.5 7.1% 14.0%vs RHP 390 9.1% 0.0% 8.5% 33

8 Braden Montgomery 40 D +625 WARM 85 0.134 89.2 5.9% 15.0%vs RHP 383 5.1% 7.7% 8.8% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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