TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ TEX

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WSH @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 9 mph out 101°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+12 ↑

7:05p

+12 ↑

8:05p

+11 ↑

9:05p

+8 ↑

10:05p

+9 ↑

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best window is early — 7:05p at +12

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 10 · vs deGrom ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 25 · vs Alvarez → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 84

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile +500 D ●●○○○

2 Cj Abrams +320 C ●●○○○

3 Dylan Crews +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 17

0.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — C ●●●●○

2 Jake Burger +400 C ●●●○○

3 Corey Seager +370 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.2% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Alvarez — 0.247 · 92.2 · 8.0% 22.2% 27.4% F B O C 58

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Alvarez Edge +400 0.185 · 89.9 · 7.9% 18.2% 19.6% F B O C 50

· TEX Corey Seager vs Alvarez +370 0.188 · 91.5 · 9.3% 18.2% 13.4% F B O C 50

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs deGrom Edge +320 0.251 · 89.4 · 9.3% 0.0% 19.7% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Alvarez Edge +425 0.208 · 89.4 · 6.7% 8.3% 12.5% F B O D 47

· WSH Daylen Lile vs deGrom Edge +500 0.163 · 88.5 · 8.5% 9.1% 10.7% F B O D 44

· WSH Dylan Crews vs deGrom +525 0.148 · 90.6 · 9.5% 10.0% 9.6% F B O D 46

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs deGrom — 0.152 · 88.3 · 7.3% 9.1% 10.0% F B O D 41

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Alvarez +525 0.164 · 92.3 · 7.8% 8.3% 10.3% F B O D 44

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs deGrom Edge +750 0.159 · 88.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Alvarez Edge +750 0.167 · 88.5 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 41

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs deGrom Edge — 0.037 · 84.9 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 21

· TEX Evan Carter vs Alvarez +750 0.128 · 87.8 · 5.7% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.5% ← leak BRK 42.8% OFF 12.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.2% 9.2% 12.2% 10.1% C 56 +320

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Dylan Crews R

6.8% 21.6% 14.3% 10.2% D 46 +525

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.7% 13.0% 4.5% 8.4% D 44 +500

Jacob Young R

7.9% 3.7% 2.9% 6.1% D 41 —

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.3% 3.1% 2.4% 4.7% D 40 +750

125

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.5% usage) carries deGrom's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 53.5% ← leak FB 42.6% OFF 3.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Joc Pederson L

12.3% 14.3% 3.5% 11.2% C 58 —

Jake Burger R Edge

11.8% 10.1% 11.8% 10.9% C 50 +400

Corey Seager L

16.3% 14.1% 17.6% 15.4% C 50 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Wyatt Langford R Edge

11.3% 5.3% 14.3% 7.9% D 47 +425

Brandon Nimmo L

17.4% 8.3% 8.0% 10.6% D 44 +525

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

5.6% 8.2% 0.0% 6.3% D 41 +750

106

Evan Carter L

4.4% 7.9% 0.0% 5.8% D 36 +750

Read the columns: the breaking family (53.5% usage) carries Alvarez's damage — BRK is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Burger Seager

Legend

attack side — vs deGrom fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson — · 58

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 9 mph out 101°F retractable

+12

↑

9 mph · out

101°F

7:05p · peak

+12

↑

8 mph · out

98°F

8:05p

+11

↑

7 mph · out

96°F

9:05p

↑

5 mph · out

93°F

10:05p

↑

7 mph · out

90°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.46× 101°F, wind 9 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 56 C +320 COOL 18 0.251 89.4 9.3% 29.9%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 19.7% 33

2 Dylan Crews 46 D +525 · 56 0.148 90.6 9.5% 12.5%vs RHP 407 16.4% 10.0% 9.6% 29

3 Daylen Lile 44 D +500 WARM 61 0.163 88.5 8.5% 12.3%vs RHP 400 9.8% 9.1% 10.7% 35

4 Jacob Young 41 D — COOL 80 0.152 88.3 7.3% 13.5%vs RHP 399 7.9% 9.1% 10.0% 33

5 Keibert Ruiz 40 D +750 · 83 0.159 88.4 6.4% 7.3%vs RHP 377 8.5% 0.0% 9.6% 22

6 Nasim Nunez 21 D — WARM 125 0.037 84.9 1.9% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 29

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 58 C — WARM 15 0.247 92.2 8.0% 25.3% 396 21.6% 22.2% 27.4% 18

2 Jake Burger 50 C +400 COOL 36 0.185 89.9 7.9% 31.8%vs LHP 400 15.9% 18.2% 19.6% 26

3 Corey Seager 50 C +370 · 38 0.188 91.5 9.3% 16.7%vs LHP 395 16.4% 18.2% 13.4% 34

4 Wyatt Langford 47 D +425 COOL 49 0.208 89.4 6.7% 20.0%vs LHP 398 16.1% 8.3% 12.5% 29

5 Brandon Nimmo 44 D +525 WARM 62 0.164 92.3 7.8% 20.8%vs LHP 403 10.3% 8.3% 10.3% 36

6 Ezequiel Duran 41 D +750 COOL 81 0.167 88.5 6.0% 10.5%vs LHP 393 11.9% 0.0% 8.8% 27

7 Evan Carter 36 D +750 · 106 0.128 87.8 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 374 7.5% 0.0% 5.9% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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