TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ KC

Neutral air · 1.00×

ATH @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 2:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 7 mph in 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

1:10p

-6 ↑

2:10p

-6 ↑

3:10p

-4 ↑

4:10p

-4 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks -4

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 24 · vs Jump ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 22 · vs Dobnak → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 40

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone — C ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +625 D ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 4

0.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +625 D ●●●○○

2 Jeff Mcneil +850 D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Jump — 0.216 · 93.2 · 9.3% 23.1% 25.4% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Jump +625 0.116 · 89.0 · 6.3% 33.3% 11.3% F B O D 38

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Dobnak Edge +625 0.141 · 89.5 · 6.1% 30.8% 13.2% F B O D 42

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Dobnak Edge +850 0.096 · 86.6 · 3.1% 25.0% 8.2% F B O D 31

· KC Michael Massey vs Jump +700 0.168 · 89.8 · 6.1% 16.7% 14.0% F B O D 42

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Dobnak +750 0.103 · 90.9 · 5.9% 15.4% 6.8% F B O D 37

· KC Carter Jensen vs Jump +625 0.181 · 90.6 · 7.7% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 46

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Jump Edge — 0.173 · 92.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 43

· KC Salvador Perez vs Jump Edge +500 0.148 · 88.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Dobnak Edge — 0.182 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 40

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Dobnak Edge +950 0.151 · 89.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Dobnak — 0.122 · 84.1 · 3.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· KC Isaac Collins vs Jump Edge +700 0.122 · 88.6 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Jump Edge +700 0.138 · 86.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.8% BRK 29.9% OFF 22.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L Edge

8.3% 9.8% 3.7% 7.6% D 42 +625

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.2% 3.9% 10.0% 7.1% D 40 —

101

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.3% 4.0% 7.8% 6.6% D 37 +950

102

Henry Bolte R

7.8% 8.2% 3.8% 7.3% D 37 +750

120

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.7% 3.2% 1.6% 2.0% D 31 +850

121

Jacob Wilson R

4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 31 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobnak's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.0% ← leak BRK 40.4% OFF 8.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L

13.2% 18.2% 11.5% 14.5% C 55 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Carter Jensen L

9.3% 11.0% 9.6% 10.0% D 46 +625

Bobby Witt R Edge

12.4% 10.2% 13.3% 11.7% D 43 —

Michael Massey L

7.6% 7.0% 1.8% 6.2% D 42 +700

Vinnie Pasquantino L

7.2% 3.4% 9.1% 6.5% D 38 +625

Salvador Perez R Edge

13.1% 6.3% 7.1% 9.5% D 37 +500

113

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.7% 9.7% 2.3% 5.6% D 35 +700

114

Nick Loftin R Edge

5.6% 1.9% 0.0% 4.0% D 35 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.0% usage) carries Jump's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Butler Mcneil Caglianone Massey Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Jump fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone — · 55

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 7 mph in 79°F open

-6

↑

7 mph · in

75°F

1:10p

-6

↑

7 mph · in

79°F

2:10p

-6

↑

7 mph · in

82°F

3:10p

-4

↑

6 mph · in

85°F

4:10p · peak

-4

↑

6 mph · in

82°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 79°F, wind 7 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Lawrence Butler 42 D +625 WARM 73 0.141 89.5 6.1% 20.4%vs RHP 409 8.4% 30.8% 13.2% 39

2 Jonah Heim 40 D — · 86 0.182 87.7 5.9% 5.6%vs RHP 414 8.9% 0.0% 8.1% 31

3 Carlos Cortes 37 D +950 COOL 101 0.151 89.5 5.6% 14.6%vs RHP 403 4.6% 0.0% 7.8% 20

4 Henry Bolte 37 D +750 · 102 0.103 90.9 5.9% 4.5%vs RHP 410 10.9% 15.4% 6.8% 40

5 Jeff Mcneil 31 D +850 HOT 120 0.096 86.6 3.1% 11.3%vs RHP 381 5.4% 25.0% 8.2% 32

6 Jacob Wilson 31 D — COOL 121 0.122 84.1 3.5% 13.9%vs RHP 386 6.5% 0.0% 7.8% 20

vs Gage Jump · LHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 55 C — WARM 21 0.216 93.2 9.3% 30.4%vs LHP 417 15.0% 23.1% 25.4% 42

2 Carter Jensen 46 D +625 · 55 0.181 90.6 7.7% 8.7%vs LHP 394 13.9% 8.3% 9.6% 28

3 Bobby Witt 43 D — COOL 68 0.173 92.6 8.3% 12.5%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 39

4 Michael Massey 42 D +700 · 72 0.168 89.8 6.1% 25.0%vs LHP 399 8.0% 16.7% 14.0% 32

5 Vinnie Pasquantino 38 D +625 HOT 95 0.116 89.0 6.3% 6.2%vs LHP 395 8.9% 33.3% 11.3% 12

6 Salvador Perez 37 D +500 · 97 0.148 88.9 7.6% 12.5%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 34

7 Isaac Collins 35 D +700 WARM 113 0.122 88.6 5.8% 7.7%vs LHP 394 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% 28

8 Nick Loftin 35 D +700 COOL 114 0.138 86.9 4.9% 3.9%vs LHP 397 8.1% 0.0% 7.1% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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