TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.77×

LAA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 14 mph out 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+22 ↑

7:10p

+22 ↑

8:10p

+20 ↑

9:10p

+18 ↑

10:10p

+17 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +22

Best of game Cam Smith conv 28 · vs Rodriguez ⟷ Mike Trout conv 17 · vs Lambert → edge: Cam Smith

ATTACK Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 79

1.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cam Smith +525 C+ ●●●●○

2 Christian Walker +400 C+ ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña +500 C ●●○○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 60

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mike Trout +350 C ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe +525 C ●●●○○

3 Zach Neto +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cam Smith: 11.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Cam Smith ✶ vs Rodriguez +525 0.178 · 89.3 · 10.8% 30.0% 26.0% F B O C+ 62

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Lambert +350 0.198 · 90.2 · 10.3% 15.4% 19.1% F B O C 59

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Lambert Edge +525 0.158 · 89.5 · 7.7% 15.4% 17.8% F B O C 51

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Rodriguez +400 0.211 · 89.4 · 9.8% 10.0% 19.4% F B O C+ 62

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs Rodriguez +500 0.186 · 88.3 · 7.4% 9.1% 17.7% F B O C 55

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Rodriguez +500 0.162 · 86.1 · 7.4% 9.1% 13.5% F B O C 52

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Lambert +400 0.186 · 89.3 · 8.8% 7.7% 13.9% F B O C 54

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +220 0.297 · 94.5 · 13.4% 0.0% 21.1% F B O C+ 69

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Rodriguez — 0.121 · 85.9 · 4.3% 0.0% 18.7% F B O D 41

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Lambert Edge +750 0.112 · 87.6 · 4.0% 8.3% 7.7% F B O D 38

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Rodriguez +525 0.150 · 85.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 46

· HOU Yainer Diaz COOL vs Rodriguez +625 0.140 · 87.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 49

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Lambert +750 0.128 · 88.0 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 43

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Lambert — 0.122 · 87.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.2% ← leak BRK 25.5% OFF 22.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Mike Trout R

14.7% 22.4% 11.1% 15.8% C 59 +350

Zach Neto R

14.0% 7.8% 9.8% 11.6% C 54 +400

Josh Lowe L Edge

11.6% 5.0% 6.1% 8.8% C 51 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Vaughn Grissom R

8.3% 6.1% 0.0% 6.4% D 43 +750

Oswald Peraza R

6.1% 6.9% 10.3% 7.0% D 42 —

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.6% 3.5% 0.0% 2.4% D 38 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.2% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.0% ← leak OFF 24.2% BRK 22.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

17.7% 10.0% 22.4% 17.5% C+ 69 +220

Cam Smith R

9.5% 17.2% 15.9% 11.7% C+ 62 +525

Christian Walker R

8.0% 13.9% 10.3% 9.4% C+ 62 +400

Jeremy Peña R

4.0% 10.0% 6.8% 5.3% C 55 +500

Isaac Paredes R

7.3% 1.9% 3.1% 5.4% C 52 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Yainer Diaz R

6.1% 6.5% 2.9% 5.1% D 49 +625

Jose Altuve R

5.8% 0.0% 4.7% 5.0% D 46 +525

Christian Vazquez R

2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.0% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Lowe Smith Walker Peña

Legend

attack side — vs Rodriguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Cam Smith +525 · 62

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.18× Wind 14 mph out 94°F retractable

+22

↑

14 mph · out

94°F

7:10p · peak

+22

↑

14 mph · out

91°F

8:10p

+20

↑

13 mph · out

88°F

9:10p

+18

↑

13 mph · out

85°F

10:10p

+17

↑

12 mph · out

84°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.77× 94°F, wind 14 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 59 C +350 COOL 14 0.198 90.2 10.3% 22.7%vs RHP 409 15.2% 15.4% 19.1% 33

2 Zach Neto 54 C +400 COOL 27 0.186 89.3 8.8% 18.3%vs RHP 402 15.0% 7.7% 13.9% 35

3 Josh Lowe 51 C +525 COOL 34 0.158 89.5 7.7% 17.5%vs RHP 397 10.7% 15.4% 17.8% 19

4 Vaughn Grissom 43 D +750 COOL 69 0.128 88.0 6.6% 17.5%vs RHP 390 8.3% 0.0% 9.7% 27

5 Oswald Peraza 42 D — COOL 76 0.122 87.6 6.8% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.6% 0.0% 8.5% 16

6 Nolan Schanuel 38 D +750 · 93 0.112 87.6 4.0% 8.8%vs RHP 375 6.5% 8.3% 7.7% 39

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 69 C+ +220 COOL 4 0.297 94.5 13.4% 26.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 33

2 Cam Smith ✶ 62 C+ +525 WARM 9 0.178 89.3 10.8% 20.0%vs RHP 408 13.4% 30.0% 26.0% 22

3 Christian Walker 62 C+ +400 COOL 10 0.211 89.4 9.8% 25.3%vs RHP 392 17.8% 10.0% 19.4% 27

4 Jeremy Peña 55 C +500 COOL 22 0.186 88.3 7.4% 28.9%vs RHP 384 14.7% 9.1% 17.7% 31

5 Isaac Paredes 52 C +500 COOL 32 0.162 86.1 7.4% 16.9%vs RHP 379 11.7% 9.1% 13.5% 40

6 Yainer Diaz 49 D +625 COOL 44 0.140 87.7 7.2% 25.8%vs RHP 398 10.0% 0.0% 12.9% 16

7 Jose Altuve 46 D +525 COOL 52 0.150 85.1 7.2% 22.0%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 27

8 Christian Vazquez 41 D — WARM 77 0.121 85.9 4.3% 18.2%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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