TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ CIN

Playable air · 1.07×

STL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 12:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 2 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

12:40p

+4 ↑

1:40p

+5 ↑

2:40p

+5 ↑

3:40p

+5 ↑

4:40p

the 2:40p window peaks +5

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 26 · vs Singer ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 22 · vs McGreevy → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 85

1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jordan Walker +350 C+ ●●●●○

3 Masyn Winn +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 73

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +400 C+ ●●●○○

2 Tyler Stephenson +425 C ●●●○○

3 Elly De La Cruz +330 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: 13.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Alec Burleson vs Singer Edge +290 0.204 · 92.1 · 10.1% 23.1% 28.0% F B O C+ 62

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ COOL vs Singer +350 0.209 · 92.6 · 10.8% 23.1% 24.8% F B O C+ 63

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs McGreevy +400 0.212 · 90.1 · 11.3% 21.4% 22.0% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs McGreevy +425 0.170 · 91.2 · 11.1% 18.2% 20.8% F B O C 54

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs McGreevy Edge +330 0.211 · 93.8 · 11.5% 14.3% 17.0% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs McGreevy +350 0.207 · 88.7 · 10.6% 0.0% 27.1% F B O C 52

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs McGreevy Edge +390 0.218 · 88.7 · 9.8% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· STL Masyn Winn HOT vs Singer +750 0.089 · 88.2 · 5.5% 7.7% 8.3% F B O D 38

· CIN Matt Mclain vs McGreevy +525 0.149 · 87.8 · 9.9% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 47

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Singer +500 0.142 · 89.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 43

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.079 · 87.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 35

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Singer Edge +425 0.130 · 89.6 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 45

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Singer Edge +525 0.121 · 86.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 44

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Singer — 0.115 · 86.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 41.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R

13.8% 11.1% 13.1% C+ 63 +350

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.8% 11.2% 11.5% C+ 62 +290

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.7% 4.0% 7.1% D 45 +425

Nathan Church L Edge

7.8% 6.2% 6.5% D 44 +525

Ivan Herrera R

6.5% 4.7% 5.9% D 43 +500

José Fermín R

2.3% 2.1% 2.0% D 39 —

Masyn Winn R

3.7% 1.9% 3.4% D 38 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.4% ← leak BRK 26.9% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

16.1% 9.4% 9.4% 12.9% C+ 61 +400

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.7% 9.4% 4.8% 13.1% C+ 60 +330

Jj Bleday L Edge

11.6% 6.8% 5.5% 9.2% C 54 +390

Tyler Stephenson R

15.8% 7.6% 5.6% 12.4% C 54 +425

Eugenio Suarez R

13.4% 7.0% 5.0% 11.2% C 52 +350

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Matt Mclain R

12.0% 8.6% 0.0% 9.7% D 47 +525

109

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.6% 4.0% 0.0% 2.4% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.4% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Burleson Stewart Cruz Stephenson Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Alec Burleson +290 · 62

Jordan Walker +350 · 63

Sal Stewart +400 · 61

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 12:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 2 mph out 74°F open

↑

2 mph · out

72°F

12:40p

↑

2 mph · out

73°F

1:40p

↑

2 mph · out

76°F

2:40p · peak

↑

2 mph · out

78°F

3:40p

↑

2 mph · out

80°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 74°F, wind 2 mph W (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 63 C+ +350 COOL 7 0.209 92.6 10.8% 26.9%vs RHP 408 17.4% 23.1% 24.8% 41

2 Alec Burleson 62 C+ +290 WARM 8 0.204 92.1 10.1% 23.4%vs RHP 405 15.6% 23.1% 28.0% 36

3 Jj Wetherholt 45 D +425 · 59 0.130 89.6 7.9% 15.7%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 9.7% 39

4 Nathan Church 44 D +525 COOL 63 0.121 86.0 7.6% 14.9%vs RHP 384 8.0% 0.0% 9.6% 30

5 Ivan Herrera 43 D +500 WARM 65 0.142 89.5 7.2% 18.4%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 40

6 José Fermín 39 D — COOL 90 0.115 86.7 4.2% 7.7%vs RHP 388 5.4% 0.0% 8.2% 23

7 Masyn Winn 38 D +750 HOT 92 0.089 88.2 5.5% 8.2%vs RHP 390 4.1% 7.7% 8.3% 34

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 61 C+ +400 COOL 11 0.212 90.1 11.3% 23.3%vs RHP 396 17.0% 21.4% 22.0% 43

2 Elly De La Cruz 60 C+ +330 COOL 13 0.211 93.8 11.5% 20.0%vs RHP 396 15.9% 14.3% 17.0% 36

3 Jj Bleday 54 C +390 COOL 23 0.218 88.7 9.8% 21.1%vs RHP 388 16.7% 0.0% 15.9% 34

4 Tyler Stephenson 54 C +425 WARM 25 0.170 91.2 11.1% 21.8%vs RHP 392 9.1% 18.2% 20.8% 24

5 Eugenio Suarez 52 C +350 WARM 31 0.207 88.7 10.6% 28.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 27.1% 31

6 Matt Mclain 47 D +525 WARM 47 0.149 87.8 9.9% 11.7%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 29

7 Tj Friedl 35 D — COOL 109 0.079 87.4 4.9% 7.0%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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