TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ BAL

Suppressed air · 0.69×

NYY @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 10 mph in 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

6:35p

-9 ↑

7:35p

-8 ↑

8:35p

-8 ↑

9:35p

-9 ↑

10:35p

the 8:35p window peaks -8

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 33 · vs Cole ⟷ Trent Grisham conv 29 · vs Bradish → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 68

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Colton Cowser +525 D ●●●●○

3 Coby Mayo +370 C ●●●○○

FADE Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 55

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trent Grisham +400 C ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +320 C+ ●●●●○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 29.7% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso HOT vs Cole +320 0.227 · 94.2 · 10.5% 38.5% 27.6% F B O C+ 60

· NYY Trent Grisham HOT vs Bradish Edge +400 0.202 · 90.7 · 8.6% 36.4% 22.1% F B O C 53

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Bradish Edge +320 0.279 · 92.2 · 10.6% 27.3% 29.7% F B O C+ 65

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Cole +370 0.231 · 92.2 · 9.7% 20.0% 18.4% F B O C 54

· BAL Samuel Basallo HOT vs Cole Edge +400 0.209 · 91.3 · 10.1% 0.0% 19.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Cole Edge +525 0.144 · 87.2 · 9.4% 37.5% 16.0% F B O D 46

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Cole Edge +425 0.178 · 89.9 · 7.6% 15.4% 12.0% F B O D 45

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Cole Edge +700 0.134 · 87.8 · 5.9% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 35

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Bradish — 0.203 · 86.6 · 8.8% 0.0% 16.8% F B O D 49

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Cole Edge +625 0.133 · 87.4 · 7.7% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 37

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Bradish — 0.146 · 83.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 34

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Bradish Edge — 0.169 · 90.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 42

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Bradish Edge +575 0.152 · 91.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 42

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Bradish Edge +525 0.120 · 89.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.6% BRK 47.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L Edge

17.5% 12.8% 15.2% C+ 65 +320

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.4% 7.4% 10.2% C 53 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.9% 4.5% 10.4% D 49 —

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.4% 4.1% 9.9% D 42 +575

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

7.9% 12.9% 9.4% D 42 —

Austin Wells L Edge

8.9% 5.7% 6.9% D 38 +525

115

Jose Caballero R

— — — D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.6% ← leak BRK 32.1% OFF 14.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Alonso R

15.2% 11.2% 15.0% 14.0% C+ 60 +320

Coby Mayo R

10.9% 12.5% 14.8% 12.0% C 54 +370

Samuel Basallo L Edge

14.3% 11.7% 11.4% 12.9% C 51 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.8% 14.3% 2.2% 11.2% D 46 +525

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.7% 6.4% 7.7% 7.3% D 45 +425

100

Jackson Holliday L Edge

8.3% 5.0% 8.6% 7.5% D 37 +625

110

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.9% 7.3% 0.0% 4.4% D 35 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.6% usage) carries Cole's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Grisham Alonso Mayo Cowser Henderson

Legend

attack side — vs Cole fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Pete Alonso +320 · 60

Trent Grisham +400 · 53

Ben Rice +320 · 65

Coby Mayo +370 · 54

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 10 mph in 73°F open

-9

↑

10 mph · in

73°F

6:35p

-9

↑

9 mph · in

71°F

7:35p

-8

↑

8 mph · in

69°F

8:35p · peak

-8

↑

8 mph · in

67°F

9:35p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

66°F

10:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.69× 73°F, wind 10 mph N (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 65 C+ +320 WARM 6 0.279 92.2 10.6% 31.6%vs RHP 393 25.2% 27.3% 29.7% 29

2 Trent Grisham 53 C +400 HOT 29 0.202 90.7 8.6% 21.5%vs RHP 385 14.0% 36.4% 22.1% 30

3 Paul Goldschmidt 49 D — WARM 42 0.203 86.6 8.8% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 16.8% 2

4 Ryan Mcmahon 42 D +575 COOL 71 0.152 91.3 8.5% 18.9%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 9.5% 18

5 Jazz Chisholm 42 D — COOL 74 0.169 90.7 8.2% 23.6%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 19

6 Austin Wells 38 D +525 COOL 94 0.120 89.0 7.2% 14.0%vs RHP 387 9.1% 0.0% 7.7% 22

7 Jose Caballero 34 D — COOL 115 0.146 83.8 5.5% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 4

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 60 C+ +320 HOT 12 0.227 94.2 10.5% 29.3%vs RHP 400 20.6% 38.5% 27.6% 39

2 Coby Mayo 54 C +370 · 26 0.231 92.2 9.7% 10.5%vs RHP 411 16.8% 20.0% 18.4% 29

3 Samuel Basallo 51 C +400 HOT 35 0.209 91.3 10.1% 29.2%vs RHP 398 16.4% 0.0% 19.2% 2

4 Colton Cowser 46 D +525 WARM 51 0.144 87.2 9.4% 18.9%vs RHP 417 15.6% 37.5% 16.0% 21

5 Gunnar Henderson 45 D +425 WARM 57 0.178 89.9 7.6% 17.9%vs RHP 391 15.3% 15.4% 12.0% 39

6 Jackson Holliday 37 D +625 COOL 100 0.133 87.4 7.7% 16.7%vs RHP 388 4.3% 7.7% 8.5% 44

7 Leody Taveras 35 D +700 · 110 0.134 87.8 5.9% 14.3%vs RHP 405 4.5% 9.1% 8.3% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.