TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.99×

SF @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:10p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph cross 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:10p

-5 ↑

2:10p

-6 ↑

3:10p

-6 ↑

4:10p

-7 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -4

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 25 · vs Williams ⟷ Brayan Rocchio conv 8 · vs Roupp → edge: Bryce Eldridge

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 87

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge +500 C ●●●●○

2 Rafael Devers +370 C ●●●○○

3 Drew Gilbert +850 D ●●●○○

FADE Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 39

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brayan Rocchio — D ●○○○○

2 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

3 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Eldridge: 12.3% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Bryce Eldridge ✶ vs Williams Edge +500 0.195 · 92.1 · 11.6% 27.3% 23.0% F B O C 56

· SF Rafael Devers vs Williams Edge +370 0.226 · 92.6 · 11.0% 18.2% 23.5% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Williams Edge +850 0.129 · 86.2 · 6.9% 20.0% 13.6% F B O D 38

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Williams +500 0.189 · 87.2 · 9.7% 12.5% 16.2% F B O D 49

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Williams Edge +950 0.140 · 86.9 · 5.3% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 35

· CLE Brayan Rocchio HOT vs Roupp Edge — 0.122 · 86.7 · 4.2% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 33

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.062 · 83.7 · 1.3% 9.1% 6.2% F B O D 22

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Roupp Edge — 0.190 · 87.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 39

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Roupp Edge +700 0.157 · 91.2 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 37

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Roupp Edge +950 0.136 · 88.1 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs Roupp Edge +575 0.147 · 89.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 50.2% ← leak FB 49.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rafael Devers L Edge

10.2% 12.0% 10.7% C 57 +370

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

9.3% 12.5% 12.3% C 56 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Willy Adames R

8.4% 7.5% 8.3% D 49 +500

Drew Gilbert L Edge

4.2% 5.2% 4.1% D 38 +850

108

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.4% 2.7% 2.6% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the breaking family (50.2% usage) carries Williams's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.7% ← leak BRK 26.4% OFF 21.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.4% 14.9% 2.8% 8.0% D 39 —

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.2% 6.6% 1.5% 6.5% D 37 +700

111

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.9% 3.6% 2.9% 4.3% D 35 +950

117

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 33 +575

119

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.0% 4.5% 1.1% 3.3% D 33 —

124

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.7% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Eldridge +500 · 56

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph cross 77°F open

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

75°F

1:10p · peak

-5

↑

7 mph · in

77°F

2:10p

-6

↑

8 mph · in

78°F

3:10p

-6

↑

9 mph · in

79°F

4:10p

-7

↑

10 mph · in

79°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.99× 77°F, wind 6 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 57 C +370 · 17 0.226 92.6 11.0% 26.6%vs RHP 397 17.9% 18.2% 23.5% 29

2 Bryce Eldridge ✶ 56 C +500 · 19 0.195 92.1 11.6% 20.8%vs RHP 399 20.3% 27.3% 23.0% 28

3 Willy Adames 49 D +500 COOL 43 0.189 87.2 9.7% 20.2%vs RHP 387 14.3% 12.5% 16.2% 20

4 Drew Gilbert 38 D +850 WARM 91 0.129 86.2 6.9% 14.3%vs RHP 393 5.3% 20.0% 13.6% 25

5 Jung Hoo Lee 35 D +950 · 108 0.140 86.9 5.3% 12.3%vs RHP 382 6.1% 10.0% 8.7% 36

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 39 D — · 88 0.190 87.3 6.6% 26.3%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 30

2 Chase Delauter 37 D +700 COOL 96 0.157 91.2 5.9% 25.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 34

3 Travis Bazzana 35 D +950 WARM 111 0.136 88.1 4.9% 17.6%vs RHP 396 9.9% 0.0% 8.1% 27

4 Jose Ramirez 33 D +575 WARM 117 0.147 89.3 5.2% 10.6%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 33

5 Brayan Rocchio 33 D — HOT 119 0.122 86.7 4.2% 12.3%vs RHP 384 7.6% 9.1% 7.3% 34

6 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 124 0.062 83.7 1.3% 3.0%vs RHP 372 1.8% 9.1% 6.2% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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