Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-08-24T17:00:26-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-24
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Cody Freeman | Jose Urquidy | Changeup | +10.4 | +1.2 | 30% | 0 | 2 | #145 | |
| · | Chase Meidroth | Kumar Rocker | Splitter | +5.0 | +14.5 | 1% | 2 | 1 | #89 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Chase Burns | Fastball | +3.5 | -0.7 | 56% | 7 | 7 | #61 | |
| · | Jake Mangum | Robbie Ray | Knuckle Curve | +14.3 | -2.0 | 11% | 0 | 0 | #136 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Kumar Rocker | Splitter | +3.5 | +14.5 | 1% | 0 | 1 | #49 | |
| · | Elias Díaz | Jose Urquidy | Curveball | +9.6 | +1.8 | 16% | 2 | 0 | #72 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Kumar Rocker | Splitter | +2.5 | +14.5 | 1% | 0 | 1 | #93 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.7 | 56% | 4 | 7 | #144 | |
| · | Abimelec Ortiz | Ryan Feltner | Fastball | +6.3 | +1.3 | 28% | 3 | 6 | #7 | |
| · | Colson Montgomery | Kumar Rocker | Splitter | +1.8 | +14.5 | 1% | 1 | 1 | #18 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +2.7 | +3.6 | 35% | 11 | 1 | #38 | |
| · | Rafael Devers | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.7 | 56% | 14 | 7 | #47 | |
| · | Willy Adames | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.7 | 56% | 10 | 7 | #76 | |
| · | Nolan Arenado | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.5 | 51% | 11 | 10 | #48 | |
| · | Ezequiel Tovar | Cade Cavalli | Knuckle Curve | +7.4 | -0.8 | 27% | 1 | 2 | #85 | |
| · | Drew Gilbert | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.7 | 56% | 3 | 7 | #120 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.5 | 51% | 6 | 10 | #88 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +1.6 | +3.6 | 35% | 8 | 1 | #43 | |
| · | Byron Buxton | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.7 | 44% | 10 | 12 | #3 | |
| · | Brooks Lee | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.7 | 44% | 8 | 12 | #15 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +1.5 | +3.6 | 35% | 8 | 1 | #70 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +1.9 | -0.1 | 45% | 9 | 5 | #14 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +1.2 | +3.6 | 35% | 12 | 1 | #35 | |
| · | Luke Keaschall | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +0.6 | +1.7 | 44% | 6 | 12 | #56 | |
| · | Ryan Waldschmidt | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.5 | 51% | 1 | 10 | #119 | |
| · | Trevor Larnach | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +0.5 | +1.7 | 44% | 3 | 12 | #28 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +0.7 | -0.5 | 51% | 8 | 10 | #34 | |
| · | Ryan Vilade | Framber Valdez | Changeup | +7.1 | +0.2 | 19% | 3 | 4 | #36 | |
| · | Tim Tawa | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +2.9 | +0.1 | 38% | 1 | 4 | #80 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +3.0 | +0.1 | 38% | 0 | 4 | #88 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+42.9 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+26.3 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+25.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.