2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 HRs · 2 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 3 Jeremy Peña 5 HRs · 4 CJ Abrams 4 HRs · 5 Esmerlyn Valdez 4 HRs · 6 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 10 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 11 Matt Olson 4 HRs · 12 Salvador Perez 4 HRs 1 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 HRs · 2 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 3 Jeremy Peña 5 HRs · 4 CJ Abrams 4 HRs · 5 Esmerlyn Valdez 4 HRs · 6 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 10 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 11 Matt Olson 4 HRs · 12 Salvador Perez 4 HRs
Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
14 days available
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-08-01T14:00:30-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-01
30 signals · no HR connections
Hit? Signal ? Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. Batter Pitcher Pitch ? The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family:

Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter
Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper
Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter
Bat RV/100 ? Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type.

+15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher
Pit RV/100 ? Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type.

+10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled
Usage% ? How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. Bat HRs ? Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. Pit HRs ? Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. Rank ? The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score).
· 10.2 Angel Martinez Kohl Drake Curveball +7.1 +14.0 21% 3 2 #123
· 9.4 Tyrone Taylor Tyler Phillips Splitter +17.0 -1.5 23% 1 1 #35
· 9.4 Weston Wilson Connor Prielipp Curveball +16.4 +0.8 17% 1 1 #131
· 8.3 Rhys Hoskins Kohl Drake Curveball +2.8 +14.0 21% 0 2 #55
· 8.2 Jackson Chourio Jose Soriano Knuckle Curve +13.6 -1.3 26% 1 2 #76
· 8.1 Jose Ramirez Kohl Drake Curveball +2.3 +14.0 21% 0 2 #154
· 7.8 Steven Kwan Kohl Drake Curveball +1.7 +14.0 21% 0 2 #231
· 7.5 Chase Delauter Kohl Drake Curveball +1.1 +14.0 21% 1 2 #153
· 7.4 Travis Bazzana Kohl Drake Curveball +0.8 +14.0 21% 0 2 #147
· 7.1 Jake Bauers Jose Soriano Knuckle Curve +11.2 -1.3 26% 2 2 #47
· 6.7 Brayan Rocchio Kohl Drake Curveball -0.8 +14.0 21% 0 2 #189
· 6.4 Kyle Manzardo Kohl Drake Curveball -1.4 +14.0 21% 0 2 #71
· 6.3 Jonny Deluca Jordan Hicks Sweeper +7.0 -0.8 34% 2 1 #190
· 6.2 James Wood Reynaldo Lopez Fastball +2.4 -1.0 55% 11 5 #3
· 6.2 Cj Abrams Reynaldo Lopez Fastball +2.4 -1.0 55% 4 5 #5
· 6.2 Junior Caminero Jordan Hicks Sinker +2.1 +0.3 51% 7 0 #59
· 6.2 Ivan Herrera Kevin Gausman Splitter +5.0 +0.4 38% 1 4 #201
· 6.1 Yandy Diaz Jordan Hicks Sweeper +6.5 -0.8 34% 3 1 #191
· 5.9 Jordan Walker Kevin Gausman Splitter +4.4 +0.4 38% 1 4 #68
· 5.9 Jacob Young Reynaldo Lopez Fastball +1.7 -1.0 55% 5 5 #98
· 5.8 Colton Cowser Cristopher Sanchez Sinker +3.8 -0.4 43% 3 5 #128
· 5.8 Yandy Diaz Jordan Hicks Sinker +1.3 +0.3 51% 1 0 #191
· 5.7 Max Muncy Payton Tolle Fastball +2.3 -0.2 47% 10 6 #13
· 5.7 Brandon Lowe Andrew Abbott Fastball +2.3 +0.0 46% 9 10 #18
· 5.7 Alec Bohm Shane Baz Knuckle Curve +4.9 +0.6 33% 1 2 #112
· 5.7 Jonny Deluca Jordan Hicks Sinker +1.1 +0.3 51% 1 0 #190
· 5.6 Joc Pederson Ronel Blanco Fastball +1.3 +5.3 32% 8 2 #2
· 5.6 Ben Rice David Peterson Fastball +5.9 +1.8 24% 15 2 #6
· 5.6 Kyle Schwarber Shane Baz Knuckle Curve +4.6 +0.6 33% 0 2 #7
· 5.6 Bryan Reynolds Andrew Abbott Fastball +2.2 +0.0 46% 7 10 #39
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🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
sample of the full pitch-type leaderboard
Yordan Alvarez +42.0 RV
Kyle Schwarber +34.2 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
who is getting hit by pitch type
Michael Lorenzen +35.3 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs +23.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen +23.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)? Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game. Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense). RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.

How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.

Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)

Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
THR 3.3.146 · build 651

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