Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-08-01T14:00:30-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-01
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Angel Martinez | Kohl Drake | Curveball | +7.1 | +14.0 | 21% | 3 | 2 | #123 | |
| · | Tyrone Taylor | Tyler Phillips | Splitter | +17.0 | -1.5 | 23% | 1 | 1 | #35 | |
| · | Weston Wilson | Connor Prielipp | Curveball | +16.4 | +0.8 | 17% | 1 | 1 | #131 | |
| · | Rhys Hoskins | Kohl Drake | Curveball | +2.8 | +14.0 | 21% | 0 | 2 | #55 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Jose Soriano | Knuckle Curve | +13.6 | -1.3 | 26% | 1 | 2 | #76 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Kohl Drake | Curveball | +2.3 | +14.0 | 21% | 0 | 2 | #154 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Kohl Drake | Curveball | +1.7 | +14.0 | 21% | 0 | 2 | #231 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Kohl Drake | Curveball | +1.1 | +14.0 | 21% | 1 | 2 | #153 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Kohl Drake | Curveball | +0.8 | +14.0 | 21% | 0 | 2 | #147 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Jose Soriano | Knuckle Curve | +11.2 | -1.3 | 26% | 2 | 2 | #47 | |
| · | Brayan Rocchio | Kohl Drake | Curveball | -0.8 | +14.0 | 21% | 0 | 2 | #189 | |
| · | Kyle Manzardo | Kohl Drake | Curveball | -1.4 | +14.0 | 21% | 0 | 2 | #71 | |
| · | Jonny Deluca | Jordan Hicks | Sweeper | +7.0 | -0.8 | 34% | 2 | 1 | #190 | |
| · | James Wood | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +2.4 | -1.0 | 55% | 11 | 5 | #3 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +2.4 | -1.0 | 55% | 4 | 5 | #5 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +2.1 | +0.3 | 51% | 7 | 0 | #59 | |
| · | Ivan Herrera | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +5.0 | +0.4 | 38% | 1 | 4 | #201 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Jordan Hicks | Sweeper | +6.5 | -0.8 | 34% | 3 | 1 | #191 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +4.4 | +0.4 | 38% | 1 | 4 | #68 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +1.7 | -1.0 | 55% | 5 | 5 | #98 | |
| · | Colton Cowser | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +3.8 | -0.4 | 43% | 3 | 5 | #128 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +1.3 | +0.3 | 51% | 1 | 0 | #191 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.2 | 47% | 10 | 6 | #13 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +2.3 | +0.0 | 46% | 9 | 10 | #18 | |
| · | Alec Bohm | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +4.9 | +0.6 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #112 | |
| · | Jonny Deluca | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +1.1 | +0.3 | 51% | 1 | 0 | #190 | |
| · | Joc Pederson | Ronel Blanco | Fastball | +1.3 | +5.3 | 32% | 8 | 2 | #2 | |
| · | Ben Rice | David Peterson | Fastball | +5.9 | +1.8 | 24% | 15 | 2 | #6 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +4.6 | +0.6 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #7 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +2.2 | +0.0 | 46% | 7 | 10 | #39 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+35.3 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+23.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.