Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-07-27T14:00:34-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-27
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Christian Yelich | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +9.9 | +1.5 | 25% | 1 | 3 | #106 | |
| · | Jake Burger | George Kirby | Knuckle Curve | +10.8 | +2.9 | 10% | 1 | 1 | #66 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Slade Cecconi | Cutter | +9.8 | -0.8 | 25% | 3 | 4 | #8 | |
| · | Carlos Narvaez | Jack Perkins | Sweeper | +8.1 | -0.2 | 30% | 2 | 2 | #85 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +2.4 | +0.8 | 48% | 4 | 3 | #2 | |
| · | James Wood | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +2.3 | +0.8 | 48% | 11 | 3 | #1 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.3 | -0.7 | 57% | 6 | 7 | #78 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.7 | 57% | 5 | 7 | #46 | |
| · | Brayan Rocchio | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.7 | 57% | 6 | 7 | #97 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +1.7 | +0.8 | 48% | 5 | 3 | #44 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.7 | 57% | 7 | 7 | #58 | |
| · | Kyle Manzardo | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.7 | -0.7 | 57% | 4 | 7 | #40 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.2 | -0.7 | 57% | 1 | 7 | #168 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Kyle Bradish | Slider | +5.9 | +0.6 | 27% | 5 | 7 | #23 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +1.9 | -0.6 | 48% | 5 | 7 | #43 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Noah Schultz | Fastball | +6.0 | +0.5 | 25% | 15 | 2 | #3 | |
| · | Nick Kurtz | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.4 | 48% | 9 | 5 | #7 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Chase Burns | Slider | +4.9 | -2.2 | 37% | 2 | 3 | #58 | |
| · | Masataka Yoshida | Jack Perkins | Sweeper | +5.0 | -0.2 | 30% | 0 | 2 | #75 | |
| · | James Wood | Max Scherzer | Slider | +3.0 | +4.5 | 22% | 7 | 4 | #1 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Tyler Phillips | Sinker | +4.2 | +1.7 | 26% | 7 | 4 | #10 | |
| · | Tyler Soderstrom | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.4 | 48% | 4 | 5 | #13 | |
| · | Dylan Crews | Max Scherzer | Fastball | -0.2 | +0.8 | 48% | 3 | 3 | #14 | |
| · | David Hamilton | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.6 | 48% | 3 | 7 | #161 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Jack Perkins | Sweeper | +4.5 | -0.2 | 30% | 3 | 2 | #47 | |
| · | Trent Grisham | Noah Schultz | Sweeper | +3.8 | +3.5 | 19% | 1 | 4 | #53 | |
| · | Jacob Wilson | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.4 | 48% | 3 | 5 | #86 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Jack Perkins | Sinker | +6.2 | +4.9 | 3% | 9 | 1 | #4 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Slade Cecconi | Cutter | +5.7 | -0.8 | 25% | 4 | 4 | #24 | |
| · | Keibert Ruiz | Max Scherzer | Fastball | -0.6 | +0.8 | 48% | 3 | 3 | #33 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+33.1 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+23.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.