Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-07-08T14:00:27-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-08
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Roki Sasaki | Splitter | +23.1 | -0.4 | 23% | 2 | 3 | #14 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Steven Cruz | Fastball | +3.9 | +0.0 | 58% | 8 | 4 | #5 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Chase Burns | Fastball | +4.1 | -0.9 | 57% | 10 | 7 | #17 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Chase Burns | Fastball | +2.9 | -0.9 | 57% | 9 | 7 | #6 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Shane McClanahan | Fastball | +6.2 | +0.0 | 38% | 13 | 2 | #7 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Steven Cruz | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.0 | 58% | 5 | 4 | #73 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Dean Kremer | Splitter | +9.0 | -4.8 | 39% | 2 | 0 | #12 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +3.0 | +1.8 | 44% | 4 | 9 | #19 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Christian Scott | Fastball | +2.3 | +0.7 | 50% | 7 | 5 | #59 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.3 | 59% | 5 | 7 | #138 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Shane McClanahan | Fastball | +5.5 | +0.0 | 38% | 8 | 2 | #37 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | MacKenzie Gore | Curveball | +9.1 | +0.0 | 21% | 0 | 3 | #194 | |
| · | Kerry Carpenter | Jeffrey Springs | Changeup | +7.1 | +1.8 | 23% | 3 | 5 | #26 | |
| · | Mark Vientos | Steven Cruz | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.0 | 58% | 4 | 4 | #32 | |
| · | Francisco Alvarez | Steven Cruz | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.0 | 58% | 3 | 4 | #61 | |
| · | Trea Turner | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.3 | -0.9 | 57% | 4 | 7 | #134 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.0 | -1.3 | 59% | 7 | 7 | #47 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.9 | 57% | 4 | 7 | #56 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.9 | -1.3 | 59% | 10 | 7 | #201 | |
| · | Ivan Herrera | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.8 | -1.3 | 59% | 4 | 7 | #204 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +3.2 | -0.7 | 45% | 8 | 3 | #3 | |
| · | Tyler Freeman | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.6 | +1.8 | 44% | 1 | 9 | #135 | |
| · | Curtis Mead | Spencer Arrighetti | Curveball | +5.6 | -0.6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | #24 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.3 | +1.8 | 44% | 4 | 9 | #36 | |
| · | George Springer | Logan Webb | Cutter | +8.6 | +1.5 | 12% | 3 | 3 | #190 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Chase Burns | Changeup | +3.6 | +9.4 | 6% | 5 | 3 | #6 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.1 | +1.8 | 44% | 4 | 9 | #14 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +1.4 | +1.4 | 44% | 5 | 10 | #16 | |
| · | A.J. Ewing | Steven Cruz | Cutter | +8.6 | -2.3 | 25% | 1 | 0 | #98 | |
| · | Alec Bohm | Chase Burns | Changeup | +3.5 | +9.4 | 6% | 1 | 3 | #122 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.2 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+23.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.0 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.