Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-30T17:00:32-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
7
Edges That Hit HR
23%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-30
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jose Trevino | Brandon Sproat | Cutter | +21.6 | +0.5 | 25% | 1 | 3 | #126 | |
| · | Jared Young | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +14.6 | +0.7 | 39% | 1 | 4 | #42 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Erick Fedde | Cutter | +16.4 | +2.1 | 19% | 1 | 6 | #28 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Brandon Sproat | Cutter | +12.6 | +0.5 | 25% | 2 | 3 | #36 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | JP Sears | Changeup | +1.2 | +14.7 | 26% | 0 | 1 | #67 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | JP Sears | Changeup | +0.7 | +14.7 | 26% | 1 | 1 | #141 | |
| 💥 | Alex Bregman | JP Sears | Changeup | +0.8 | +14.7 | 26% | 0 | 1 | #157 | |
| 💥 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | JP Sears | Changeup | +0.0 | +14.7 | 26% | 1 | 1 | #31 | |
| 💥 | Michael Busch | JP Sears | Changeup | -1.2 | +14.7 | 26% | 0 | 1 | #100 | |
| · | George Springer | Nolan McLean | Cutter | +9.5 | +4.9 | 11% | 3 | 2 | #97 | |
| · | Ian Happ | JP Sears | Changeup | -1.7 | +14.7 | 26% | 0 | 1 | #40 | |
| 💥 | Francisco Alvarez | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +6.1 | +0.7 | 39% | 1 | 4 | #45 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +4.0 | +0.0 | 49% | 9 | 5 | #5 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Brandon Sproat | Cutter | +8.5 | +0.5 | 25% | 4 | 3 | #110 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +3.5 | +1.4 | 43% | 9 | 10 | #7 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +3.1 | +0.0 | 49% | 9 | 5 | #1 | |
| · | Esmerlyn Valdez | Cristopher Sanchez | Slider | +10.6 | -0.9 | 18% | 1 | 2 | #10 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +3.6 | -1.6 | 52% | 7 | 6 | #13 | |
| · | Spencer Jones | Tarik Skubal | Changeup | +8.6 | -0.6 | 26% | 2 | 2 | #87 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Tarik Skubal | Fastball | +6.4 | -0.9 | 35% | 8 | 4 | #19 | |
| · | Randy Arozarena | Jose Soriano | Knuckle Curve | +8.6 | -0.7 | 24% | 0 | 2 | #159 | |
| · | Nelson Velazquez | Martin Perez | Sinker | +6.9 | -0.5 | 31% | 1 | 1 | #165 | |
| 💥 | Ben Rice | Tarik Skubal | Fastball | +6.1 | -0.9 | 35% | 11 | 4 | #9 | |
| · | Noelvi Marte | Brandon Sproat | Sweeper | +9.4 | +2.2 | 10% | 1 | 2 | #75 | |
| 💥 | Dansby Swanson | JP Sears | Changeup | -3.8 | +14.7 | 26% | 0 | 1 | #80 | |
| · | Mookie Betts | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +2.5 | +1.4 | 43% | 6 | 10 | #23 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +2.2 | +1.4 | 43% | 8 | 10 | #25 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Eury Perez | Fastball | +2.7 | -0.6 | 48% | 3 | 5 | #59 | |
| 💥 | Ketel Marte | Landen Roupp | Sinker | +5.5 | -0.9 | 36% | 5 | 3 | #111 | |
| · | Ryan Kreidler | Mike Burrows | Fastball | +4.8 | +1.8 | 28% | 3 | 12 | #57 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.0 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+24.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.3 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.