Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-15T17:00:30-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
3
Edges That Hit HR
10%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-15
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +25.5 | -0.8 | 34% | 1 | 6 | #73 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Ryne Nelson | Curveball | +14.1 | +2.1 | 10% | 0 | 1 | #82 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Mitch Spence | Cutter | +10.3 | -0.9 | 36% | 4 | 0 | #34 | |
| · | Rodolfo Durán | Dustin May | Cutter | +12.6 | -1.4 | 22% | 1 | 0 | #28 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Chase Burns | Fastball | +4.0 | -1.3 | 57% | 7 | 5 | #18 | |
| 💥 | Mike Trout | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +2.2 | -0.8 | 57% | 5 | 9 | #19 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Wandy Peralta | Changeup | +7.0 | -1.3 | 35% | 2 | 1 | #30 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Nick Martinez | Slider | +2.1 | +13.8 | 3% | 1 | 0 | #4 | |
| · | Zach Neto | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.8 | 57% | 6 | 9 | #22 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Jared Jones | Fastball | +3.2 | +2.2 | 38% | 9 | 2 | #3 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Nick Martinez | Slider | +2.0 | +13.8 | 3% | 4 | 0 | #8 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Tobias Myers | Fastball | +3.7 | -2.1 | 51% | 5 | 2 | #31 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Tobias Myers | Fastball | +3.5 | -2.1 | 51% | 4 | 2 | #26 | |
| · | Jo Adell | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.8 | 57% | 6 | 9 | #78 | |
| · | Nolan Schanuel | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.8 | 57% | 2 | 9 | #127 | |
| · | Oswald Peraza | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +0.4 | -0.8 | 57% | 3 | 9 | #77 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +0.4 | -0.8 | 57% | 2 | 9 | #82 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Michael Lorenzen | Cutter | +9.1 | +0.4 | 14% | 1 | 1 | #106 | |
| · | Isaac Collins | Andrew Alvarez | Slider | +4.1 | +2.1 | 30% | 1 | 1 | #142 | |
| · | Alex Jackson | MacKenzie Gore | Slider | +10.7 | -0.5 | 9% | 0 | 0 | #149 | |
| 💥 | Nick Kurtz | Jared Jones | Fastball | +2.0 | +2.2 | 38% | 8 | 2 | #2 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Nick Martinez | Sinker | +6.2 | -1.1 | 31% | 4 | 3 | #4 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.4 | 46% | 4 | 9 | #11 | |
| · | Kerry Carpenter | Kai-Wei Teng | Changeup | +8.0 | +2.5 | 10% | 3 | 1 | #41 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.4 | -1.3 | 57% | 2 | 5 | #60 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Troy Melton | Fastball | +2.2 | +1.1 | 41% | 1 | 4 | #121 | |
| · | Jared Young | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.1 | -1.3 | 57% | 1 | 5 | #20 | |
| · | Marcus Semien | Chase Burns | Changeup | +2.1 | +10.7 | 6% | 0 | 2 | #50 | |
| · | Braxton Fulford | Shota Imanaga | Sinker | +11.0 | -1.1 | 8% | 0 | 2 | #104 | |
| 💥 | Eugenio Suárez | Tobias Myers | Cutter | +9.6 | -0.7 | 11% | 3 | 0 | #89 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.