Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-12T17:00:33-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
3
Edges That Hit HR
10%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-12
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Gavin Sheets | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +11.1 | +0.2 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #39 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Jack Flaherty | Knuckle Curve | +12.3 | +2.0 | 20% | 0 | 2 | #111 | |
| · | José Caballero | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +12.1 | -1.4 | 33% | 1 | 0 | #181 | |
| · | Andrew Vaughn | Andrew Painter | Fastball | +8.4 | +2.1 | 33% | 3 | 4 | #101 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Andrew Painter | Splitter | +13.2 | +0.9 | 14% | 1 | 3 | #158 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +7.0 | -0.8 | 46% | 9 | 1 | #27 | |
| · | Adley Rutschman | Griffin Canning | Cutter | +9.1 | +8.4 | 4% | 3 | 1 | #23 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +6.9 | -0.8 | 46% | 4 | 1 | #79 | |
| · | Miguel Rojas | Anthony Kay | Cutter | +11.7 | +0.6 | 18% | 1 | 2 | #118 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +2.6 | -1.6 | 63% | 7 | 3 | #31 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +2.7 | -1.6 | 63% | 7 | 3 | #53 | |
| · | Ryan Waldschmidt | Nick Lodolo | Changeup | +10.4 | -1.1 | 25% | 0 | 1 | #87 | |
| · | Eugenio Suárez | Eduardo Rodriguez | Cutter | +10.7 | +1.9 | 13% | 3 | 3 | #108 | |
| 💥 | Juan Soto | Spencer Strider | Fastball | +3.6 | +0.8 | 48% | 6 | 3 | #32 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Bryce Miller | Cutter | +10.3 | +3.8 | 6% | 4 | 1 | #136 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.8 | -1.6 | 63% | 3 | 3 | #92 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Shane McClanahan | Curveball | +12.1 | -1.5 | 14% | 0 | 0 | #103 | |
| · | Trea Turner | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.2 | -1.6 | 63% | 3 | 3 | #217 | |
| 💥 | Colt Emerson | Zack Littell | Sweeper | +11.3 | -0.3 | 10% | 1 | 0 | #11 | |
| · | José Ramírez | Jack Flaherty | Fastball | +1.7 | +0.6 | 49% | 6 | 4 | #68 | |
| · | Casey Schmitt | Javier Assad | Changeup | +9.0 | +2.4 | 9% | 4 | 2 | #80 | |
| · | Miguel Vargas | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.9 | +1.4 | 44% | 5 | 6 | #19 | |
| · | Kyle Higashioka | Sonny Gray | Cutter | +9.3 | -1.5 | 21% | 1 | 1 | #116 | |
| · | Ketel Marte | Nick Lodolo | Sinker | +4.6 | +3.6 | 23% | 3 | 4 | #21 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Griffin Canning | Cutter | +5.0 | +8.4 | 4% | 0 | 1 | #22 | |
| · | Brayan Rocchio | Jack Flaherty | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.6 | 49% | 3 | 4 | #177 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.6 | +1.4 | 44% | 0 | 6 | #201 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Landen Roupp | Cutter | +9.1 | +0.6 | 13% | 1 | 0 | #228 | |
| 💥 | Jake Bauers | Andrew Painter | Fastball | +3.1 | +2.1 | 33% | 5 | 4 | #8 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Eduardo Rodriguez | Fastball | +4.0 | -0.9 | 40% | 4 | 3 | #24 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.