TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ PIT

PNC Park is live · 1.18×

MIL @ PIT

PNC Park · 12:35p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 7 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

12:35p

+5 ↑

1:35p

+5 ↑

2:35p

+6 ↑

3:35p

+6 ↑

4:35p

conditions build late — the 3:35p window peaks +6

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 19 · vs Harrison ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 28 · vs Dotel → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Kyle Harrison LHP · MIL

leak 4

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe — C ●●●○○

2 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●●○○

3 Oneil Cruz — C ●●●○○

FADE Wilber Dotel RHP · PIT

leak 3

0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers — C ●●●●○

2 William Contreras — D ●●●●○

3 Brice Turang — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 19.0% · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Dotel Edge — 0.228 · 92.4 · 7.9% 37.5% 19.0% F B O C 51

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Harrison — 0.224 · 90.9 · 9.8% 22.2% 16.2% F B O C 53

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Harrison — 0.208 · 94.8 · 11.6% 16.7% 19.7% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· MIL William Contreras vs Dotel — 0.147 · 90.4 · 6.3% 40.0% 14.1% F B O D 39

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Harrison — 0.183 · 89.3 · 7.7% 25.0% 12.7% F B O D 44

· MIL Brice Turang vs Dotel Edge — 0.176 · 90.1 · 5.9% 18.2% 12.1% F B O D 39

· PIT Bryan Reynolds HOT vs Harrison Edge — 0.161 · 91.1 · 10.0% 16.7% 13.0% F B O D 45

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Dotel Edge — 0.162 · 93.3 · 7.4% 16.7% 12.7% F B O D 39

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Dotel — 0.196 · 91.7 · 7.5% 16.7% 11.7% F B O D 44

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Dotel — 0.136 · 88.9 · 4.4% 11.1% 8.1% F B O D 31

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Dotel Edge — 0.143 · 89.1 · 6.6% 11.1% 6.5% F B O D 35

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Harrison Edge — 0.121 · 87.6 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Harrison Edge — 0.085 · 85.6 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 26

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Harrison Edge — 0.068 · 86.4 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 25

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Harrison Edge — 0.088 · 86.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 27

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Harrison — 0.120 · 86.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 33

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Dotel Edge — 0.091 · 86.9 · 3.8% 0.0% 4.8% F B O D 24

· MIL Sal Frelick vs Dotel Edge — 0.090 · 86.1 · 3.3% 0.0% 4.8% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Wilber Dotel — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Harrison — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Contreras Mitchell Turang Cruz Lowe Reynolds O'Hearn

Legend

attack side — vs Harrison fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jake Bauers — · 51

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 12:35p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 7 mph out 79°F open

↑

7 mph · out

77°F

12:35p

↑

7 mph · out

79°F

1:35p

↑

7 mph · out

81°F

2:35p

↑

7 mph · out

83°F

3:35p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

85°F

4:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 79°F, wind 7 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Wilber Dotel · RHP 0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 51 C — WARM 42 0.228 92.4 7.9% 28.1%vs RHP 401 20.0% 37.5% 19.0% 19

2 Jackson Chourio 44 D — COOL 75 0.196 91.7 7.5% 19.5%vs RHP 400 17.1% 16.7% 11.7% 43

3 William Contreras 39 D — WARM 99 0.147 90.4 6.3% 15.7%vs RHP 408 11.8% 40.0% 14.1% 32

4 Garrett Mitchell 39 D — WARM 100 0.162 93.3 7.4% 26.3%vs RHP 417 8.3% 16.7% 12.7% 25

5 Brice Turang 39 D — WARM 101 0.176 90.1 5.9% 24.6%vs RHP 406 11.1% 18.2% 12.1% 28

6 Christian Yelich 35 D — COOL 120 0.143 89.1 6.6% 20.0%vs RHP 397 8.7% 11.1% 6.5% 27

7 Joey Ortiz 31 D — WARM 128 0.136 88.9 4.4% 18.9%vs RHP 392 7.9% 11.1% 8.1% 23

8 David Hamilton 24 D — COOL 138 0.091 86.9 3.8% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.2% 0.0% 4.8% 16

9 Sal Frelick 23 D — WARM 140 0.090 86.1 3.3% 6.0%vs RHP 396 3.4% 0.0% 4.8% 23

vs Kyle Harrison · LHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 55 C — COOL 27 0.208 94.8 11.6% 40.0%vs LHP 414 22.5% 16.7% 19.7% 26

2 Brandon Lowe 53 C — · 36 0.224 90.9 9.8% 16.7%vs LHP 390 17.9% 22.2% 16.2% 27

3 Bryan Reynolds 45 D — HOT 66 0.161 91.1 10.0% 17.1%vs LHP 407 10.8% 16.7% 13.0% 34

4 Ryan O'Hearn 44 D — COOL 74 0.183 89.3 7.7% 16.7%vs LHP 385 14.0% 25.0% 12.7% 14

5 Konnor Griffin 34 D — COOL 121 0.121 87.6 7.9% 8.3%vs LHP 401 5.4% 0.0% 7.8% 35

6 Spencer Horwitz 33 D — COOL 124 0.120 86.9 7.1% 8.3%vs LHP 395 8.3% 0.0% 5.6% 24

7 Nick Gonzales 27 D — WARM 131 0.088 86.2 5.0% 3.0%vs LHP 397 5.8% 0.0% 7.1% 28

8 Jake Mangum 26 D — WARM 132 0.085 85.6 4.2% 5.3%vs LHP 393 3.9% 0.0% 7.4% 33

9 Jared Triolo 25 D — COOL 135 0.068 86.4 4.5% 5.3%vs LHP 409 2.4% 0.0% 7.4% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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