TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.35×

BOS @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 5 mph slight_out 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:05p

+4 ↑

8:05p

+3 ↑

9:05p

+2 ↑

10:05p

+4 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +5

Best of game Corey Seager conv 33 · vs Gray ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 26 · vs Alexander → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 59

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Corey Seager — C ●●●●●

2 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

3 Wyatt Langford — C ●●●○○

FADE Tyler Alexander LHP · TEX

leak 10

0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.69 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras — C ●●●●○

2 Nick Sogard — D ●●●○○

3 Wilyer Abreu — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 30.9% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Corey Seager vs Gray Edge — 0.201 · 91.8 · 10.1% 41.7% 23.5% F B O C 58

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.250 · 92.1 · 8.8% 33.3% 30.9% F B O C+ 61

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Alexander Edge — 0.243 · 89.7 · 7.9% 33.3% 19.1% F B O C 55

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Gray — 0.195 · 89.0 · 7.0% 16.7% 23.9% F B O C 50

· TEX Jake Burger vs Gray — 0.192 · 90.0 · 9.1% 16.7% 22.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· BOS Nick Sogard vs Alexander Edge — 0.149 · 86.8 · 4.6% 20.0% 14.2% F B O D 40

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.126 · 88.0 · 5.9% 16.7% 9.4% F B O D 38

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Alexander — 0.205 · 89.9 · 7.7% 9.1% 11.2% F B O D 49

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Gray — 0.168 · 88.9 · 6.4% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 43

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Alexander — 0.155 · 89.8 · 6.7% 11.1% 7.9% F B O D 42

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Alexander Edge — 0.133 · 83.4 · 3.7% 9.1% 7.5% F B O D 33

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Alexander Edge — 0.145 · 87.7 · 5.6% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 38

· TEX Josh Jung vs Gray — 0.146 · 90.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 40

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.150 · 92.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 42

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.041 · 84.5 · — 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Alexander — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Sonny Gray — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Sogard Pederson Seager Burger Langford Carter

Legend

attack side — vs Gray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Corey Seager — · 58

Joc Pederson — · 61

Willson Contreras — · 55

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 5 mph slight_out 93°F retractable

↑

5 mph · slight_out

93°F

7:05p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

91°F

8:05p

↑

4 mph · cross

90°F

9:05p

↑

4 mph · cross

88°F

10:05p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

86°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 93°F, wind 5 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Alexander · LHP 0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.69 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 55 C — WARM 28 0.243 89.7 7.9% 24.1%vs LHP 405 19.5% 33.3% 19.1% 7

2 Wilyer Abreu 49 D — WARM 54 0.205 89.9 7.7% 15.0%vs LHP 406 15.6% 9.1% 11.2% 31

3 Jarren Duran 42 D — COOL 83 0.155 89.8 6.7% 10.0%vs LHP 401 13.8% 11.1% 7.9% 21

4 Nick Sogard 40 D — WARM 91 0.149 86.8 4.6% 28.6%vs LHP 387 12.8% 20.0% 14.2% 28

5 Andruw Monasterio 38 D — COOL 106 0.145 87.7 5.6% 16.1%vs LHP 390 10.0% 0.0% 10.4% 6

6 Caleb Durbin 33 D — WARM 126 0.133 83.4 3.7% 14.8%vs LHP 376 8.5% 9.1% 7.5% 24

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 11 0.250 92.1 8.8% 30.1%vs RHP 396 23.2% 33.3% 30.9% 15

2 Corey Seager 58 C — · 15 0.201 91.8 10.1% 23.1%vs RHP 397 18.5% 41.7% 23.5% 40

3 Jake Burger 53 C — WARM 37 0.192 90.0 9.1% 20.0%vs RHP 402 16.1% 16.7% 22.4% 25

4 Wyatt Langford 50 C — WARM 45 0.195 89.0 7.0% 24.5%vs RHP 401 15.2% 16.7% 23.9% 24

5 Ezequiel Duran 43 D — COOL 78 0.168 88.9 6.4% 20.3%vs RHP 397 12.8% 8.3% 11.6% 36

6 Brandon Nimmo 42 D — COOL 82 0.150 92.2 8.0% 11.4%vs RHP 404 9.2% 0.0% 8.9% 33

7 Josh Jung 40 D — WARM 95 0.146 90.4 6.4% 13.7%vs RHP 386 9.6% 0.0% 9.3% 16

8 Evan Carter 38 D — COOL 107 0.126 88.0 5.9% 12.3%vs RHP 380 7.4% 16.7% 9.4% 17

9 Nicky Lopez 19 D — COOL 141 0.041 84.5 — 4.3%vs RHP 397 1.8% 0.0% 7.0% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.