TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CWS

Playable air · 1.06×

DET @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 36 · vs Fedde ⟷ Munetaka Murakami conv 25 · vs Valdez → edge: Spencer Torkelson

ATTACK Erick Fedde RHP · CWS

leak 93

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Riley Greene — C+ ●●●○○

3 Dillon Dingler — C ●●○○○

FADE Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 66

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas — C ●●●○○

3 Randal Grichuk — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Spencer Torkelson: Match 27.5% · 14D pace 44.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson ✶ vs Fedde — 0.197 · 89.3 · 9.8% 44.4% 27.5% F B O C+ 62

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Valdez — 0.257 · 93.8 · 10.4% 18.2% 31.4% F B O C+ 64

· DET Riley Greene vs Fedde Edge — 0.196 · 90.4 · 11.1% 23.1% 20.8% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.224 · 90.2 · 8.8% 16.7% 17.2% F B O C 58

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Valdez Edge — 0.277 · 91.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 30.2% F B O C 57

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Fedde — 0.209 · 88.4 · 9.0% 10.0% 17.5% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Valdez Edge — 0.132 · 87.3 · 5.1% 7.7% 11.7% F B O D 39

· DET Max Clark COOL vs Fedde Edge — 0.169 · 88.1 · 2.7% 9.1% 9.6% F B O D 42

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Valdez Edge — 0.128 · 88.9 · 5.1% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 39

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Fedde Edge — 0.150 · 87.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 44

· CWS Jake Rogers COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.128 · 88.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 42

· CWS Brenton Doyle vs Valdez Edge — 0.093 · 88.2 · 5.9% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 38

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Fedde — 0.110 · 86.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 41

· DET Javier Baez COOL vs Fedde — 0.111 · 84.9 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· CWS Luisangel Acuna vs Valdez Edge — 0.034 · 88.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 29

· DET John Peck COOL vs Fedde — 0.024 · 88.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 42

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Fedde Edge — 0.096 · 85.8 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Erick Fedde — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Framber Valdez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Torkelson Greene Dingler Murakami Vargas Grichuk

Legend

attack side — vs Fedde fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Spencer Torkelson — · 62

Riley Greene — · 60

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.06× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.06× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Erick Fedde · RHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson ✶ 62 C+ — · 8 0.197 89.3 9.8% 25.6%vs RHP 392 15.6% 44.4% 27.5% 23

2 Riley Greene 60 C+ — WARM 10 0.196 90.4 11.1% 17.6%vs RHP 399 13.0% 23.1% 20.8% 38

3 Dillon Dingler 57 C — COOL 20 0.209 88.4 9.0% 26.7%vs RHP 398 17.5% 10.0% 17.5% 28

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 44 D — · 66 0.150 87.9 7.7% 11.4%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 39

5 Max Clark 42 D — COOL 84 0.169 88.1 2.7% 10.0%vs RHP 373 6.2% 9.1% 9.6% 33

6 John Peck 42 D — COOL 88 0.024 88.1 9.5% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 24

7 Gleyber Torres 41 D — COOL 93 0.110 86.4 7.1% 14.0%vs RHP 393 8.1% 0.0% 9.4% 28

8 Javier Baez 36 D — COOL 119 0.111 84.9 4.2% 5.0%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 8

9 Zach Mckinstry 33 D — COOL 130 0.096 85.8 4.0% 5.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 21

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 64 C+ — COOL 7 0.257 93.8 10.4% 28.6%vs LHP 401 17.9% 18.2% 31.4% 17

2 Miguel Vargas 58 C — COOL 15 0.224 90.2 8.8% 27.9%vs LHP 392 19.5% 16.7% 17.2% 40

3 Randal Grichuk 57 C — WARM 16 0.277 91.6 8.0% 24.3%vs LHP 387 12.8% 0.0% 30.2% 24

4 Jake Rogers 42 D — COOL 82 0.128 88.2 7.4% 20.0%vs LHP 382 8.1% 0.0% 11.4% 6

5 Chase Meidroth 39 D — WARM 107 0.132 87.3 5.1% 23.1%vs LHP 382 7.6% 7.7% 11.7% 33

6 Braden Montgomery 39 D — WARM 109 0.128 88.9 5.1% 6.7%vs LHP 395 6.7% 10.0% 7.5% 25

7 Brenton Doyle 38 D — WARM 111 0.093 88.2 5.9% 16.7%vs LHP 405 5.1% 0.0% 11.0% 6

8 Luisangel Acuna 29 D — WARM 140 0.034 88.4 4.2% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 5

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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