TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ TB

Playable air · 1.06×

ATH @ TB

Tropicana Field · 1:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 35 · vs Springs ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 24 · vs Rasmussen → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Jeffrey Springs LHP · ATH

leak 91

2.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — B ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios — C ●●●●●

3 Jonathan Aranda — C ●●●●○

FADE Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 24

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof — C ●●●●○

2 Lawrence Butler — D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 36.7% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Springs Edge — 0.254 · 92.8 · 10.9% 33.3% 36.7% F B O B 73

· TB Richie Palacios HOT vs Springs — 0.143 · 86.3 · 6.2% 44.4% 16.8% F B O C 50

· ATH Zack Gelof HOT vs Rasmussen — 0.205 · 89.3 · 7.6% 25.0% 23.8% F B O C 53

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Springs — 0.158 · 91.2 · 9.5% 30.0% 18.2% F B O C 56

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Rasmussen — 0.226 · 91.9 · 9.5% 0.0% 15.2% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.153 · 89.7 · 7.1% 25.0% 19.2% F B O D 45

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Rasmussen — 0.128 · 90.8 · 6.8% 25.0% 12.8% F B O D 42

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Springs Edge — 0.111 · 85.3 · 4.3% 16.7% 13.7% F B O D 41

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.103 · 86.5 · 3.3% 14.3% 8.4% F B O D 31

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Springs Edge — 0.160 · 91.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 47

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Springs Edge — 0.154 · 85.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 44

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.168 · 87.8 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 40

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.135 · 88.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 36

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Springs — 0.139 · 87.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 45

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Springs — 0.052 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Drew Rasmussen — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jeffrey Springs — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Butler Bolte Caminero Aranda Palacios Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Springs fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Junior Caminero — · 73

Zack Gelof — · 53

Jonathan Aranda — · 56

Lawrence Butler — · 45

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.06× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 54 C — COOL 30 0.226 91.9 9.5% 23.3%vs RHP 417 19.8% 0.0% 15.2% 10

2 Zack Gelof 53 C — HOT 34 0.205 89.3 7.6% 25.5%vs RHP 398 20.0% 25.0% 23.8% 35

3 Lawrence Butler 45 D — WARM 64 0.153 89.7 7.1% 23.5%vs RHP 406 9.8% 25.0% 19.2% 32

4 Henry Bolte 42 D — WARM 81 0.128 90.8 6.8% 11.5%vs RHP 397 12.7% 25.0% 12.8% 24

5 Jonah Heim 40 D — COOL 92 0.168 87.8 6.3% 7.0%vs RHP 409 8.6% 0.0% 9.9% 23

6 Carlos Cortes 36 D — COOL 115 0.135 88.3 6.1% 16.4%vs RHP 400 4.7% 0.0% 9.2% 27

7 Jeff Mcneil 31 D — COOL 127 0.103 86.5 3.3% 11.8%vs RHP 380 6.1% 14.3% 8.4% 39

vs Jeffrey Springs · LHP 2.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 73 B — WARM 1 0.254 92.8 10.9% 33.3%vs LHP 415 25.7% 33.3% 36.7% 38

2 Jonathan Aranda 56 C — · 25 0.158 91.2 9.5% 10.7%vs LHP 391 12.9% 30.0% 18.2% 26

3 Richie Palacios 50 C — HOT 46 0.143 86.3 6.2% 11.9% 385 9.2% 44.4% 16.8% 24

4 Yandy Diaz 47 D — · 59 0.160 91.1 8.1% 21.6%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 46

5 Cedric Mullins 45 D — COOL 70 0.139 87.8 6.2% 3.7%vs LHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 8.4% 19

6 Jonny Deluca 44 D — COOL 73 0.154 85.4 5.4% 8.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 23

7 Nick Fortes 41 D — COOL 85 0.111 85.3 4.3% 5.0%vs LHP 390 5.2% 16.7% 13.7% 12

8 Chandler Simpson 24 D — COOL 137 0.052 83.6 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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